059
FXUS61 KAKQ 210149
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
849 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS OF 850 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NOT AS COOL TONIGHT AND MILDER SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSS THE REGION.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MOSTLY CLEAR AND NOT AS COOL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW-SE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. MIXING WITH THE FRONT COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F
INLAND W AND SW OF THE CHES. BAY, WITH LOWER 50S OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
A STRONG (~1036-1038MB) AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT, AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
LOCAL AREA MONDAY. COLDER LOWS ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. LOWS MONDAY
MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S, WITH LOWER
30S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE WIND REMAINS ELEVATED.
SUNNY AND DRY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (30-40%) AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SNOWFLAKES
AND/OR ICE PELLETS COULD MIX IN AT THE ONSET, ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NORTHERN NECK TO THE EASTERN SHORE. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION
BEING ALL RAIN IS THE MOSTLY LIKELY SCENARIO. NBM CONTINUES TO
SHOW LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE PIEDMONT, WITH UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE E (AND AWAY FROM THE COAST). THESE LOWS LIKELY OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NUDGING ABOVE FREEZING
ONCE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. ANY RAIN ENDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70F POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
ALOFT, A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY
MID-LATE WEEK, WHICH WILL FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM
CHRISTMAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. A SECONDARY (DRY) COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHALLOW COOLER AIRMASS
TO SLIDE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE, TO THE LOWER 50S FROM CENTRAL VA TO THE
TIDEWATER, AND MID/UPPER 50S FAR SW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION IN WNW FLOW ALOFT CHRISTMAS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A 20-40% CHC
OF SHOWERS (HIGHEST CHC NE). CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE CHRISTMAS DAY,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FARTHER SW WHERE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRI, DEC 26 WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK (AND THE WARMEST IN THE PAST
MONTH) AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH KEEPS THE AREA
SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70F FOR MOST OF THE AREA (LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE). NOT QUITE AS WARM SATURDAY, BUT HIGHS ARE STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE LATEST NBM SHOWING MID 50S NE TO LOWER
60S S AND SW. FORECAST LOWS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY
AND CHRISTMAS MORNING, 40S TO NEAR 50F FRIDAY MORNING, AND UPPER
30S TO MID 40S SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 625 PM EST SATURDAY...
1025MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS OF 23Z. VFR ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING UNDER
A PATCH OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. A 40-45KT SW LLJ CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT AND THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF
LLWS APPROXIMATELY 05-11Z SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY AT RIC AND SBY. THE
WIND BECOMES S THEN SW 5-10KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THEN SHIFTS TO NW 8-12KT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AROUND AND AFTER 14-15Z SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO
20KT POSSIBLE AT SBY.
VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN (POSSIBLY A
BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX N AT THE ONSET) LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A CHC OF
LIGHT RAIN CHRISTMAS DAY.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND TONIGHT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
1024MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NE NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WAVES ARE AROUND 1 FOOT
WITH SEAS 2-4 FT (HIGHEST S).
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF ENHANCED S AND SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. SCA
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE 2 NORTHERN ATLANTIC ZONES
TONIGHT WHERE CONFIDENCE IN MEETING SCA CRITERIA IS HIGHEST,
MAINLY FOR GUSTS AOA 25 KT WITH SEAS 4-5 FT. THE NORTHERN CHES
BAY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SW WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR
OR ABOVE 20 KT BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF THE
STRONGER WINDS WAS TOO LOW FOR SCAS. A SHORT SCA OR MWS IS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF WINDMILL PT THIS EVENING IF NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS
GREATER POTENTIAL THAN IS EVIDENT NOW. THE FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SUNDAY BUT COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY
SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY AS NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUST TO 30 KT
IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS (15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN
THE UPPER RIVERS). SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT SUNDAY NIGHT
(POTENTIALLY 5-7 FT IN NE NC) AND LINGER ABOVE 5 FT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WAVES IN THE BAY INCREASE TO 3-4 FT DURING THE SAME
PERIOD WITH 3-5 FT WAVES POSSIBLE BRIEFLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WATERS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/AC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/RMM
LONG TERM...AJZ/RMM
AVIATION...AJZ/AC
MARINE...RHR
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