725
FXUS61 KAKQ 210726
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
226 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING COOLER
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 225 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA TODAY.
- COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 20S FOR MOST.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SW LLJ MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS (S TO SW) TO REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT PROPER DECOUPLING. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA
(AROUND 40F POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME NW ~10
MPH INLAND AND 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH INLAND AND 20-25 MPH
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
CAA INITIALLY COMES IN THE FORM OF LOWER DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHILE
TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA (AROUND
60F POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC). THIS ALLOWS FOR MIN RH OF 20-
25% ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 30-35% EAST OF I-95. OTHERWISE, CIRRUS
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED.
CLOUDS CLEAR WHILE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND TONIGHT AS
A STRONG (~1038MB) AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM WINDS INLAND, A FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 20S INLAND.
LOWS REMAIN MILDER ALONG THE COAST (LOWER 30S) GIVEN WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED. WILL NOTE THAT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS END UP COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER 20S AND PERHAPS A FEW LOCALIZED UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 225 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- COOLER MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD ON MON, ALLOWING FOR A COOL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE (LOWER 40S NE TO UPPER 40S SW).
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA TUE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN GENERALLY LOW (30-40% POPS EXCEPT 40-50%
ALONG THE COAST). CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING
IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAT PRECIP WILL
REMAIN ALL RAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING (NBM HAS
LOWS AROUND 32-33F ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 28-32F ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA), HOWEVER, LOWS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH TEMPS LIKELY RISING ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE ANY
PRECIP FALLS. ANY RAIN ENDS BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO
THE LOWER 50S NE TO AROUND 60F SW (MOST IN THE MID-UPPER 50S).
CLOUDS CLEAR TUE NIGHT WITH MILDER LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 225 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70F POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
- A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ALOFT, A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MID-
LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES ALLOWS FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN WED INTO WED NIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING IN THE 30S FOR MOST
(COOLEST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA). HOWEVER, TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN
SHORE CHRISTMAS DAY. FRI, DEC 26 WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST OF THE
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH KEEPS THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HIGHS ON FRI RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND WITH HIGHS
AROUND 70F POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THE WARMER
WEATHER, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE APART FROM A LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA THU AND FRI WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON FRI (30-40% POPS).
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM EST SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A 35-45 KT SW LLJ CROSSES THE REGION FROM 6-12Z TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED LLWS TO THE
TAFS FOR RIC/SBY/PHF/ORF. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF ECG AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
ADD LLWS TO THE ECG TAF. S 5-10 KT WINDS BECOME SW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH WINDS ~10 KT AT SBY AND ORF. WINDS BECOME NW
8-15 KT BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON (BEGINNING AROUND 15-16Z), WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT
POSSIBLE INLAND AND UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE AT SBY. WINDS BECOME N
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS (~5 KT) INLAND AND 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AT ORF AND PERHAPS ECG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE, CIRRUS GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CIGS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
(POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT SBY AT THE ONSET) LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WEDNESDAY WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
DAY.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND TONIGHT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
1024MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NE NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WAVES ARE AROUND 1 FOOT
WITH SEAS 2-4 FT (HIGHEST S).
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF ENHANCED S AND SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. SCA
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE 2 NORTHERN ATLANTIC ZONES
TONIGHT WHERE CONFIDENCE IN MEETING SCA CRITERIA IS HIGHEST,
MAINLY FOR GUSTS AOA 25 KT WITH SEAS 4-5 FT. THE NORTHERN CHES
BAY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SW WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR
OR ABOVE 20 KT BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF THE
STRONGER WINDS WAS TOO LOW FOR SCAS. A SHORT SCA OR MWS IS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF WINDMILL PT THIS EVENING IF NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS
GREATER POTENTIAL THAN IS EVIDENT NOW. THE FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SUNDAY BUT COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY
SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY AS NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUST TO 30 KT
IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS (15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN
THE UPPER RIVERS). SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT SUNDAY NIGHT
(POTENTIALLY 5-7 FT IN NE NC) AND LINGER ABOVE 5 FT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WAVES IN THE BAY INCREASE TO 3-4 FT DURING THE SAME
PERIOD WITH 3-5 FT WAVES POSSIBLE BRIEFLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WATERS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ632-634-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RHR
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