248
FXUS61 KAKQ 212331
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
631 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 245 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH
INLAND LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. WINDS TURN NW THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT HAVE BEEN LESS GUSTY THAN FORECAST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY
DUE TO LIMITED MIXING WITH THICKER CIRRUS CLOUDS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH
SKIES CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS INLAND WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. SOME OF THE SHELTERED/RURAL COOL
SPOTS MAY SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER
NEAR THE WATER WITH LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- REMAINING COOL MONDAY.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS RETURNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. 12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL NOT
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL PATTERN WITH LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR
AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
THEREAFTER AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET FOR MAINLY THE NE
QUARTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT QPF DURING THIS PERIOD IS
VERY LIGHT WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM ANY RA/SN MIXING.
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP FOR THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WITH MAYBE UP TO 0.1" FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BAY. ANY LINGERING RAINFALL MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S SW TO THE LOW 50S NE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN AS THE DISTURBANCE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES
OFFSHORE. MILD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50 AND 60S
CHRISTMAS DAY AND 60S TO 70S ON FRIDAY.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST
EXPANDS NE INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S SW TO THE LOW 50S NW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS SW AND COOLEST NE. BLENDED
GUIDANCE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE N AND NW
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
AREA DRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON CHRISTMAS AND 60S AND LOW
70S ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TO THE N OF THE AREA WILL BRING AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY. A
WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH COOLER
(BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPS SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 630 PM EST SUNDAY...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE 00Z/22 TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. STILL SEEING BKN-OVC HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT STILL EXPECTING
SKIES TO CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE LATER TONIGHT. SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MID-DAY TOMORROW, THEN CLOUDS INCREASE
AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE
N/NW TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK: A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS (POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT SBY AT THE ONSET)
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY FOR REMAINING OCEAN ZONES, BAY ZONES, AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
- HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH A ROUND OF
MARGINAL SCAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTN. THE WIND IS MAINLY WNW 10-15KT. SEAS ARE PRIMARILY 2-3FT
WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER CAA AND ONSET OF SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHES. BAY, AND CURRITUCK SOUND
WILL ARRIVE BY THIS EVENING. A N-NW WIND OF 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-
30KT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE CHES. BAY AND COASTAL WATERS, WITH
N-NW 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND. IT REMAINS
A MORE MARGINAL EVENT FOR THE RIVERS, SO NO ADDITIONAL SCAS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE WIND OVER THE RIVERS IN GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE N-NW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
6FT TONIGHT, AND BRIEFLY 5-7FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS LINGER ~5FT MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE HENRY. WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY WILL BE 3-4FT
DURING THE PEAK SURGE, AND POTENTIALLY TO 5FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES N
OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A SW THEN WSW WIND INCREASES TO 15-20KT FOR A
FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN, MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS, CHES. BAY, AND LOWER JAMES. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE CHES. BAY AND LOWER JAMES. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
SCAS ARE EVEN MORE MARGINAL AS SEAS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET TO
5FT GIVEN LIMITED TEMPORAL DURATION PLUS AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE COAST LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN N-NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE AREA
CHRISTMAS DAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTN
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-634-654-
656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJZ
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