709
FXUS61 KAKQ 220532
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1232 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 1230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH
INLAND LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE (~1036MB) ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. SOME
OF THE SHELTERED/RURAL COOL SPOTS MAY SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS
TONIGHT. N WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS LOCALLY HIGHER (LOW-MID 30S).
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- REMAINING COOL MONDAY.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS RETURNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. 12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL NOT
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL PATTERN WITH LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR
AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
THEREAFTER AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET FOR MAINLY THE NE
QUARTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT QPF DURING THIS PERIOD IS
VERY LIGHT WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM ANY RA/SN MIXING.
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP FOR THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WITH MAYBE UP TO 0.1" FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BAY. ANY LINGERING RAINFALL MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S SW TO THE LOW 50S NE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN AS THE DISTURBANCE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES
OFFSHORE. MILD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50 AND 60S
CHRISTMAS DAY AND 60S TO 70S ON FRIDAY.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST
EXPANDS NE INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S SW TO THE LOW 50S NW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS SW AND COOLEST NE. BLENDED
GUIDANCE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE N AND NW
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
AREA DRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON CHRISTMAS AND 60S AND LOW
70S ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TO THE N OF THE AREA WILL BRING AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY. A
WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH COOLER
(BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPS SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO MON NIGHT (A
MIXTURE OF STRATUS AND CIRRUS). WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INLAND AND N/NNE AROUND 10 KT AT ORF/ECG THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT ORF BETWEEN
7-10Z THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME S TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 5-10
KT LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT SBY AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN ANY SNOW. ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE VERY LIGHT (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH).
OUTLOOK: A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING TUE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE TUE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY FOR REMAINING OCEAN ZONES, BAY ZONES, AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
- HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH A ROUND OF
MARGINAL SCAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTN. THE WIND IS MAINLY WNW 10-15KT. SEAS ARE PRIMARILY 2-3FT
WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER CAA AND ONSET OF SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHES. BAY, AND CURRITUCK SOUND
WILL ARRIVE BY THIS EVENING. A N-NW WIND OF 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-
30KT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE CHES. BAY AND COASTAL WATERS, WITH
N-NW 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND. IT REMAINS
A MORE MARGINAL EVENT FOR THE RIVERS, SO NO ADDITIONAL SCAS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE WIND OVER THE RIVERS IN GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE N-NW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
6FT TONIGHT, AND BRIEFLY 5-7FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS LINGER ~5FT MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE HENRY. WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY WILL BE 3-4FT
DURING THE PEAK SURGE, AND POTENTIALLY TO 5FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES N
OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A SW THEN WSW WIND INCREASES TO 15-20KT FOR A
FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN, MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS, CHES. BAY, AND LOWER JAMES. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE CHES. BAY AND LOWER JAMES. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
SCAS ARE EVEN MORE MARGINAL AS SEAS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET TO
5FT GIVEN LIMITED TEMPORAL DURATION PLUS AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE COAST LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN N-NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE AREA
CHRISTMAS DAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTN
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ632>634-650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ
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