906
FXUS61 KAKQ 220711
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
211 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY, BRINGING COOLER WEATHER. A BUILDING
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW-END RAIN CHANCES EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON CHRISTMAS AND FRIDAY AS WELL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE (~1036MB) ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AS OF 120 AM
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND WILL
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. SOME OF THE SHELTERED/RURAL COOL
SPOTS MAY SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT. N WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS LOCALLY HIGHER (LOW-
MID 30S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA
(LOWER 40S NE TO UPPER 40S SW).
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE (POPS INCREASE TO 25-40% EXCEPT 40-50% ALONG THE
COAST). CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES OR SLEET MIXING
IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MAINLY
THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE) AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL
RAIN. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE LOWS TONIGHT MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING EAST
OF I-95, LOWS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE ANY PRECIP FALLS. AS SUCH, EVEN
IF A BRIEF WINTRY MIX DOES OCCUR, NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION ARE
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED INTO WED NIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TUE MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER, QPF LOOKS TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. ANY RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE BY
LATE TUE MORNING WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUE AFTERNOON.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S NE TO AROUND 60F SW TUE AND LOWER 50S NE TO MID 60S SW
WED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN WED NIGHT, LOWS DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE, MID 30S EAST OF I-95,
AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F WEST OF I-95.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 210 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ALOFT, A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MID-
LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THU. AS SUCH, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS, TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW. NBM CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS ON FRI
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F INLAND WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE (HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S).
HOWEVER, THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THE LOW,
INTRODUCING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES. THE EURO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FRI WHILE THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A SHARP
TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND 60S TO NEAR 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF. THIS HAS BEEN A RECENT TREND WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
AND COULD LEAD TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO MON NIGHT (A
MIXTURE OF STRATUS AND CIRRUS). WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INLAND AND N/NNE AROUND 10 KT AT ORF/ECG THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT ORF BETWEEN
7-10Z THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME S TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 5-10
KT LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT SBY AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN ANY SNOW. ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE VERY LIGHT (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH).
OUTLOOK: A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING TUE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE TUE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY FOR REMAINING OCEAN ZONES, BAY ZONES, AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
- HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH A ROUND OF
MARGINAL SCAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTN. THE WIND IS MAINLY WNW 10-15KT. SEAS ARE PRIMARILY 2-3FT
WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER CAA AND ONSET OF SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHES. BAY, AND CURRITUCK SOUND
WILL ARRIVE BY THIS EVENING. A N-NW WIND OF 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-
30KT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE CHES. BAY AND COASTAL WATERS, WITH
N-NW 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND. IT REMAINS
A MORE MARGINAL EVENT FOR THE RIVERS, SO NO ADDITIONAL SCAS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE WIND OVER THE RIVERS IN GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE N-NW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
6FT TONIGHT, AND BRIEFLY 5-7FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS LINGER ~5FT MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE HENRY. WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY WILL BE 3-4FT
DURING THE PEAK SURGE, AND POTENTIALLY TO 5FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES N
OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A SW THEN WSW WIND INCREASES TO 15-20KT FOR A
FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN, MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS, CHES. BAY, AND LOWER JAMES. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE CHES. BAY AND LOWER JAMES. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
SCAS ARE EVEN MORE MARGINAL AS SEAS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET TO
5FT GIVEN LIMITED TEMPORAL DURATION PLUS AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE COAST LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN N-NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE AREA
CHRISTMAS DAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTN
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ632>634-650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ
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