564
FXUS61 KAKQ 221754
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1254 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY, BRINGING COOLER WEATHER. A BUILDING
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW-END RAIN CHANCES EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON CHRISTMAS AND FRIDAY AS WELL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 950 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE (~1036MB) OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S,
AFTER EARLY MORNING LOWS THAT RANGED FROM 20-25F INLAND (A FEW
UPPER TEENS) TO THE LOWER/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNNY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA (LOWER 40S NE TO UPPER 40S
SW).
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE (POPS INCREASE TO 25-40% EXCEPT 40-50% ALONG THE
COAST). CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES OR SLEET MIXING
IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MAINLY
THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE) AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL
RAIN. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE LOWS TONIGHT MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING EAST
OF I-95, LOWS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE ANY PRECIP FALLS. AS SUCH, EVEN
IF A BRIEF WINTRY MIX DOES OCCUR, NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION ARE
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED INTO WED NIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TUE MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER, QPF LOOKS TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. ANY RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE BY
LATE TUE MORNING WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUE AFTERNOON.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S NE TO AROUND 60F SW TUE AND LOWER 50S NE TO MID 60S SW
WED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN WED NIGHT, LOWS DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE, MID 30S EAST OF I-95,
AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F WEST OF I-95.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 210 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ALOFT, A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MID-
LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THU. AS SUCH, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS, TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW. NBM CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS ON FRI
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F INLAND WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE (HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S).
HOWEVER, THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THE LOW,
INTRODUCING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES. THE EURO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FRI WHILE THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A SHARP
TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND 60S TO NEAR 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF. THIS HAS BEEN A RECENT TREND WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
AND COULD LEAD TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM EST MONDAY...
1036MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE REGION AS OF 18Z.
VFR UNDER A SUNNY SKY WITH A LIGHT AND GENERALLY N TO NE WIND.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING UNDER INCREASING CI. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM
FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWESTERLY
LLWS TUESDAY MORNING. THE WIND SHIFTS TO SW BY TUESDAY AFTN WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO ~20KT.
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE REGION CHRISTMAS
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHC OF
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CIGS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA AND TOWARD THE COAST.
MARINE
AS OF 710 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OCEAN ZONES S OF
CAPE CHARLES, AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND THIS MORNING.
- HIGH PRESSURE LATER TODAY BRINGS A PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS,
WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF MARGINAL SCAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE (~1035MB) IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AND WILL SETTLES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATER TODAY. NORTHERLY
WIND SURGE HAS BEEN A BIT LESS THAN EXPECTED, AND HAVE DROPPED
SCAS IN THE BAY AND OCEAN N OF CAPE CHARLES. SEAS LINGER AT 4-5
FT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES (AND UP TO 6-7 FT IN
NC). ALL SCAS SHOULD BE OVER BY LATER THIS AFTN AS E-NE WINDS
DROP OFF TO 10 KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE COAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING, THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY TO THE N OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A SW TO WSW WIND INCREASES TO
15-20KT FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN, MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, CHES. BAY, AND LOWER JAMES. MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CHES. BAY AND LOWER JAMES.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SCAS ARE EVEN MORE MARGINAL AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET TO 5FT GIVEN LIMITED TEMPORAL DURATION
PLUS AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE COAST LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN N-NW
FLOW (ALTHOUGH THIS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER). HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS EVE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF
THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
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