120
FXUS61 KAKQ 230729
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
229 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER CHRISTMAS DAY,
AND THIS WILL POTENTIALLY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO THE EASTERN SHORE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 820 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
1034MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AND AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S ON THE EASTERN
SHORE. TEMPS LIKELY STABILIZE OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT AS CLOUD COVER THICKENS. LATER TONIGHT, A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. STRONG WAA
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THEREFORE,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY WINTRY PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY TIMEFRAME FOR
ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN SUNRISE AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, AND MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I- 95 CORRIDOR.
QPF IS MINIMAL AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WSW- ENE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
PACIFIC AIRMASS ARRIVES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY NEARING 60F ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IF
CLOUDS CLEAR EARLY ENOUGH. FARTHER NE, FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND
50F WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT AS COOL
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S N TO THE
MID 40S S UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM AROUND 50F OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF SE VA/NE NC WHERE LIGHT
N TO NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. MILDER AWAY
FROM THE COAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND W AND SW OF THE CHES. BAY. PLEASANT CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS MORNING
RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND A CHC OF SHOWERS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY. THE LATEST NBM
HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NE TO LOWER 60S SW.
HOWEVER, THE 12Z/22 EPS/GEFS ENS. MEANS ARE GENERALLY MID 40S NE
TO MID 50S SW. HIGH TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TRENDING COOLER LATER THIS WEEK.
- A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- POTENTIALLY MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONG
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED IN VICINITY OF GREENLAND.
THEREFORE, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
TRENDED COLDER WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR WILL BE
DIRECTED MORE N AND NE OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, 1030+MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS QB WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST NBM HAS
TRENDED DOWN SHOWING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N TO UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S S. IN CONTRAST, THE 22/12Z MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS SHOWS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S N TO MID
40S/AROUND 50F S ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND A CHC OF RAIN (ESPECIALLY
N). THE SURFACE HIGH AND BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT
TO THE NE SATURDAY, SO CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
UNDERGOES A RATHER QUICK TRANSITION SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH THEN DIGS SE AND
DEEPENS AS IT REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 625 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE
LOCAL COASTLINE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNDER INCREASING CI. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AND A WARM FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A THICKER LAYER OF CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS TUESDAY MORNING. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO SW BY TUESDAY AFTN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
~20KT.
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE REGION CHRISTMAS
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHC OF
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CIGS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA AND TOWARD THE COAST.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS A ~1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE THE AREA THIS MORNING. S WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 10-15 KT,
BECOMING SW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AFTER SUNRISE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY BEGINNING AT 7 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE
MIDDLE BAY AND 10 AM FOR THE LOWER AND MOUTH BAY. A SHORT PERIOD OF
GUSTS TO 25 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, BUT THIS
SEEMS TO BE POSSIBLE ONLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, SO HAVE HELD
OFF ON ISSUING SCA FOR THIS. BY THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE W AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT IN THE CHES. BAY AND 10-15 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AFTER SUNRISE TO 10-
15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE CHES. BAY AND 15-20 KT IN THE
COASTAL WATERS, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.
MARGINAL SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE CHES. BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. ONCE AGAIN, WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE EVENING WEDNESDAY,
REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEEKEND WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY CROSSING THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SCA ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT.
WAVES AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1 FT IN THE BAY AND 2-3 FT IN
THE COASTAL WATERS, INCREASING TO 1-3 FT AND 2-4 FT, RESPECTIVELY,
TODAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WAVES AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, POSSIBLY INCREASING
LATE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ631-632-634.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/AC
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ/AC
MARINE...KMC
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