552
FXUS61 KAKQ 241154
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
654 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER CHRISTMAS DAY, AND WILL BRING COOL
AND DAMP CONDITIONS FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND TURNS A BIT WARMER, BUT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED. DRY AND COLDER NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD TO WARM AND DRY TODAY, INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO THE
LOWER OH/TN VALLEY. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHERN VA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
KEPT THE AIRMASS MIXED EARLY THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN FAIRLY
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S (THOUGH SOME
SHELTERED RURAL AREAS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE 30S). IT IS MOSTLY
CLEAR, EXCEPT FOR BKN CLOUDS ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ACT MORE AS A DEW PT BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD
AIR EXPECTED TODAY. IN FACT, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE RATHER WARM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO
THE THE LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE, MIXING IN SOME HRRR FOR TODAY'S
TEMPERATURES AS THIS PREFORMED QUITE WELL ON TUESDAY. OTHER THAN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTN, A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL
PREVAIL, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL,
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NC
(POTENTIALLY MID-UPPER 60S IN THE FAR SW). FOR THE EASTERN SHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST IN SE VA, THE NORTHERLY WIND OFF THE BAY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 40S BY LATE AFTN). HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT, FAST MOVING SFC LOW TRACKS ESE
FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND ONLY LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE EVENING,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S (LOCALIZED UPPER 20S
NE). STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS A LOW CHC
FOR RAIN MAY REACH INTO THE PIEDMONT A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE
CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- REMAINING MILD CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR (MAINLY)
MORNING SHOWERS.
- CHILLY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTN/EVENING, WITH SOME MIXED WINTRY
PRECIP GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH.
THE FAST MOVING SLIDES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA CHRISTMAS MORNING,
BRINGING SHALLOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS, PRIMARILY FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH NOON. QPF
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY REMAINS LESS THAN 0.10". DEPENDING ON THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN, THOUGH WILL GENERALLY BE MILD. WITH PARTIAL AFTN
SUNSHINE, THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR HIGH INTO THE LOW-MID 60S
SOUTH OF I-64 (WARMEST DOWN NEAR THE NC BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL
VA). MEANWHILE, NE PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL TEND TO BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S (UPPER 40S COASTAL ERN
SHORE).
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, STRONG (NEAR 1035MB) HIGH PRESSURE TRAILING
THE SYSTEM WILL SHUNT THE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TURNING COLDER
THU EVENING, BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST SOME CLEARING MOVES BACK
IN FROM THE NNE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE COLDEST ACROSS THE ERN
SHORE (MID-UPPER 20S), WITH LOW-MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA (35-40 FAR SOUTH). ON FRIDAY, LATEST MODEL
TRENDS ARE FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS OVER QUEBEC AND RIDGES S INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
TURNING CLOUDY, BUT WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE AFTN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO
MODIFY ENOUGH TO KEEP P-TYPE MAINLY JUST RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NORTHERN TIER. AT THIS TIME, WARMER AIR ALOFT RAPIDLY
MOVES IN FROM THE SW, SO THERE IS MINIMAL CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW.
LATEST ECMWF/GFS/CMC ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR ANYWHERE IN THE AKQ CWA (EVEN THE MD
ERN SHORE). THERMAL PROFILES MOSTLY FAVOR A PERIOD OF SLEET OR A
RAIN/SLEET MIX OVER THE NORTH FRI AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WHILE A
FEW SLEET PELLETS WILL BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY AS FAR SOUTH AS RIC,
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN PERHAPS OVER THE MD ERN SHORE
(AND EVEN HERE IT WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING). THE INITIAL SFC LOW WEAKEN OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY, WITH SECONDARY SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
VA-NC COAST FRI NIGHT. THE HIGHER QPF WILL BE FRI NIGHT (LOCALLY
~0.50") BUT BUT THIS TIME THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS
MILDER ATLANTIC INFLUENCE SO ALL OF THIS WILL BECOME JUST RAIN
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START THE WEEKEND
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, FOLLOWED
BY MARKEDLY COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
OVERALL, THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER AS THE
LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY, WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. HIGHS SAT WILL HOLD IN THE 40S N WITH
50S S (WHICH IS BELOW NBM GUIDANCE). THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE
FINALLY TRANSLATES EAST BY SUNDAY, BUT THE MODELS DO NOT AMPLIFY
THE RIDGE AS MUCH AS PAST RUNS, SO SUNDAY HAS ALSO TRENDED
COOLER FOR HIGHS- MOSTLY IN THE 50S (WITH 60S CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTH). THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
HAS TRENDED SLOWER, NOW SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST ON MONDAY. WILL
HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING WILL KEEP THE COLDER
AIRMASS DELAYED WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S,
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S NW AND 50S SE. IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY
FROM MONDAY AFTN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUE-WED.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 650 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
12Z/24 TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS BECOME NW, THEN INCREASE WITH
GUSTS TO ~20KT FROM ~14Z THROUGH ~20Z. REMAINING VFR TONIGHT
WITH JUST INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS CHRISTMAS DAY, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. SBY HAVING THE HIGHEST CHC FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTH, AND
RAIN LIKELY N. SBY COULD SEE SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND FROM
THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, W/SW WINDS ARE AROUND 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO NW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KT IN THE BAY AND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS LITTLE CAA WITH THIS FRONT, SO THE
WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE
RISES. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CURRITUCK
SOUND AND HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE BAY FOR A SHORT DURATION
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS EXPANSION REMAINS
MARGINAL AS CRITERIA IS LIKELY MET ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS, LOCAL WIND
PROBS HAVE INCREASED FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO 18 KT TO AROUND 50% FOR
THE MIDDLE BAY ZONES, AS WELL AS HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING A SURGE OF
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THEN ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATER CHRISTMAS DAY AND N
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. THE
CAA WITH THIS FRONT IS STRONGER THAN THE FRONT TODAY, SO SCAS APPEAR
TO BE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
SYSTEM IN EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BRING SCA CONDITIONS.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2-4 FT TODAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WAVES 1-2 FT IN THE BAY. 4-6 FT SEAS (LOCALLY HIGHER) AND 2-4 FT
WAVES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ633-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...KMC/SW
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