834
FXUS61 KAKQ 242333
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER CHRISTMAS
DAY, AND WILL BRING COLD AND DAMP CONDITIONS FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND TURNS A BIT WARMER, BUT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
UNSETTLED. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PLEASANT CHRISTMAS EVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
MILD TEMPERATURES.
- CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
IT IS A VERY PLEASANT CHRISTMAS EVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPED SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NW IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S (EVEN A FEW
LOWER 70S) ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE 50S
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AS A FAST
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, APPROACHING
THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNRISE CHRISTMAS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE MID-
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE A DECENT NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
VISIBILITY AND LIGHT WINDS FOR SANTA AND HIS REINDEER. .
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING MILD CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR (MAINLY) MORNING
SHOWERS.
- CHILLY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH.
THE FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA CHRISTMAS
MORNING, BRINGING SHALLOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS, PRIMARILY FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH NOON. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ~0.15" OR LESS
(HIGHEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT). PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER CHRISTMAS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD
BE ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S (POSSIBLY UPPER 60S IN SPOTS) SOUTH OF I-64. COOLER FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, STRONG (NEAR 1035MB) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NEW ENGLAND, PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
"WEDGE" CONDITIONS (CAD). OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN DORCHESTER COUNTY, MD, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX (PRIMARILY SNOW OR
SLEET). A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET IS POSSIBLE (~0.1-0.3")
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WITH THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LOWER TO MID
40S FURTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW WEAKEN OVER THE UPPER OH
VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
VA-NC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER QPF WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
(LOCALLY 0.50+") BUT THIS TIME THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS
MILDER ATLANTIC INFLUENCE SO ALL OF THIS WILL BECOME JUST RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
FOR SATURDAY, THE WEDGE AIRMASS LINGERS EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THE LOWER TO MID 60S FURTHER S/SW. A LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER/DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- MARKEDLY COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE FINALLY TRANSLATES EAST BY SUNDAY, BUT THE
MODELS DO NOT AMPLIFY THE RIDGE AS MUCH AS PAST RUNS, SO SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER FOR HIGHS, MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S (WITH
60S CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH). THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND HAS TRENDED SLOWER, NOW SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SLOWER TIMING WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIRMASS
DELAYED WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S (UPPER 30S MD EASTERN
SHORE), WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S NW TO 60S SE. IT LOOKS TO STAY
DRY LATER MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 635 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
00Z/25 TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ECG WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE
NNE. REMAINING VFR TONIGHT WITH JUST INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS A WEAK LLJ MAY
MOVE OVER THE COASTAL AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 16Z BRINGING A CHANCE
OF LLWS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ IS SLOW
AND HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTH, AND
RAIN LIKELY N. SBY COULD SEE SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 210 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
- NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER
JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS ON THE LOCAL WATERS HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN SHORT
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC, ALL OF THE SCAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT
FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-
10 KT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE S.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED SW WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, FROM A QUICKLY ADVANCING LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA GENERALLY
FROM 00Z-12Z FRIDAY (7 PM THURSDAY-7 AM FRIDAY) AND HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN RAISED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES
RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 4-7 FT BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND COULD PEAK 1-2 FT HIGHER S OF CAPE CHARLES.
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY DUE TO AN
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT, WIND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJB/HET
MARINE...SW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page