117
FXUS61 KAKQ 250744
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
244 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER CHRISTMAS
DAY, AND WILL BRING COLD AND DAMP CONDITIONS FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND TURNS A BIT WARMER, BUT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
UNSETTLED. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 800 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AS A FAST MOVING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, APPROACHING THE
LOCAL AREA BY SUNRISE CHRISTMAS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE MID- UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE A DECENT NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
VISIBILITY AND LIGHT WINDS FOR SANTA AND HIS REINDEER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING MILD CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR (MAINLY) MORNING
SHOWERS.
- CHILLY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH.
THE FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA CHRISTMAS
MORNING, BRINGING SHALLOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS, PRIMARILY FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH NOON. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ~0.15" OR LESS
(HIGHEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT). PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER CHRISTMAS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD
BE ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S (POSSIBLY UPPER 60S IN SPOTS) SOUTH OF I-64. COOLER FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, STRONG (NEAR 1035MB) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NEW ENGLAND, PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
"WEDGE" CONDITIONS (CAD). OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN DORCHESTER COUNTY, MD, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX (PRIMARILY SNOW OR
SLEET). A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET IS POSSIBLE (~0.1-0.3")
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WITH THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LOWER TO MID
40S FURTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW WEAKEN OVER THE UPPER OH
VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
VA-NC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER QPF WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
(LOCALLY 0.50+") BUT THIS TIME THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS
MILDER ATLANTIC INFLUENCE SO ALL OF THIS WILL BECOME JUST RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
FOR SATURDAY, THE WEDGE AIRMASS LINGERS EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THE LOWER TO MID 60S FURTHER S/SW. A LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER/DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- MARKEDLY COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE FINALLY TRANSLATES EAST BY SUNDAY, BUT THE
MODELS DO NOT AMPLIFY THE RIDGE AS MUCH AS PAST RUNS, SO SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER FOR HIGHS, MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S (WITH
60S CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH). THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND HAS TRENDED SLOWER, NOW SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SLOWER TIMING WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIRMASS
DELAYED WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S (UPPER 30S MD EASTERN
SHORE), WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S NW TO 60S SE. IT LOOKS TO STAY
DRY LATER MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 635 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
00Z/25 TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ECG WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE
NNE. REMAINING VFR TONIGHT WITH JUST INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS A WEAK LLJ MAY
MOVE OVER THE COASTAL AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 16Z BRINGING A CHANCE
OF LLWS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ IS SLOW
AND HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTH, AND
RAIN LIKELY N. SBY COULD SEE SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY,
CURRITUCK SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- SCA ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS WAVES INCREASE FROM WEAK OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
ALLOWING W WINDS OF 5-10 KT. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATER TODAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A STRONGER SURGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
TODAY, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LLJ WITH S WINDS OF
10-15 KT. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE
NORTHERLY AND STRONGER CAA WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS, CHES. BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES
RIVER GENERALLY FROM 7PM TO 7AM FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY TO 4-6 FT, POSSIBLY TO 7 FT
SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES, DUE TO AN
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT, WIND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW COULD INCREASE SEAS TO 4-6 FT LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY. STRONG CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO HIGH END SCAS. LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE
A 30-40% CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 34 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE MODELS SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS.
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND FINE TUNED
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/RHR
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJB/HET
MARINE...KMC/SW
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