561
FXUS61 KAKQ 250836
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY, AND
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC. COLD AND DAMP CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND TURNS A BIT WARMER, BUT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY AND
UNSETTLED. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, FOLLOWED WITH DRY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WARM CHRISTMAS DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH A CHANCE FOR
(MAINLY) MORNING SHOWERS.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NW OVER
IN/OH. NW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT ON THE NE EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE AND PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN VA
AND ERN NC THIS MORNING, BRINGING JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS 30-40% FOR MOST). OVERALL, QPF WILL
AVERAGE LESS THAN 0.10" AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ENDING BY LATE MORNING IN THE PIEDMONT, AND BY EARLY AFTN TO THE
EAST AS THE WAVE ALOFT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON AVERAGE THIS MORNING, WITH PARTLY/VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTN. WITH DECENT MIXING AND SW WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE W, HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NBM FOR
HIGHS, BLENDING IN THE HRRR WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND MUCH OF NE NC, TO THE LOWER 50S ON THE
MD EASTERN SHORE, WITH MOST OF THE REGION IN THE LOW-MID 60S,
OR ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, STRONG (NEAR 1035MB) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
QUEBEC, PUSHING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AS THE STRONG SFC HIGH RIDGES SOUTH, CLEARING SKIES
PREVAIL WITH A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE
TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHILLY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH.
THE LATEST MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY EAST FROM NORTHERN IL TO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA, FRIDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
"WEDGE" CONDITIONS (CAD). THE MODEL TRENDS SHOW A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE (WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS
NOT STARTING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING, WITH LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE NOT REALLY DEVELOPING FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL THE
AFTN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO BRING
MAINLY JUST RAIN TO THE CWA, THOUGH THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
A WINDOW FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET ACROSS THE MD EASTERN
SHORE (AND RAIN/SLEET OVER NORTHERN ZONES W OF THE BAY). GIVEN
THE WARMTH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS, LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED AND SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EVEN SLOWER
AND FARTHER NORTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF INTO THE REGION
(JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS THROUGH 00Z/SAT). THE ONLY LOCATIONS
THAT HAS MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET
(~0.1-0.2") IS THE MD EASTERN SHORE. WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION, HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WITH 40-45F
FOR MOST OF THE CWA (MID-UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F IN NE NC AND
SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS). THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW WEAKENS OVER
THE UPPER OH VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA- NC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT (MILLER B SETUP).
THE HIGHER QPF WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT (0.25" TO LOCALLY 0.50+")
FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, BY THIS TIME THE
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MILDER ATLANTIC INFLUENCE SO ALL OF
THIS WILL BECOME JUST RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING.
FOR SATURDAY, THE WEDGE AIRMASS LINGERS EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THE LOWER 60S OVER THE FAR S/SW. A
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER/DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE MD
EASTERN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING, BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE, WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY ALONG AND S OF I-64. CLOUDS
INCREASE SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30F NE TO THE
UPPER 30S/AROUND 40F IN NE NC.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- MARKEDLY COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE FINALLY TRANSLATES EAST BY SUNDAY, BUT THE
MODELS DO NOT AMPLIFY THE RIDGE AS MUCH AS PAST RUNS, SO SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER FOR HIGHS, MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S (WITH
60S CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH). THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND HAS TRENDED SLOWER, NOW SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SLOWER TIMING WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIRMASS
DELAYED WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S (UPPER 30S MD EASTERN
SHORE), WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S NW TO 60S SE. IT LOOKS TO STAY
DRY LATER MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 635 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
00Z/25 TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ECG WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE
NNE. REMAINING VFR TONIGHT WITH JUST INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS A WEAK LLJ MAY
MOVE OVER THE COASTAL AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 16Z BRINGING A CHANCE
OF LLWS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ IS SLOW
AND HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTH, AND
RAIN LIKELY N. SBY COULD SEE SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY,
CURRITUCK SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- SCA ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS WAVES INCREASE FROM WEAK OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
ALLOWING W WINDS OF 5-10 KT. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATER TODAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A STRONGER SURGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
TODAY, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LLJ WITH S WINDS OF
10-15 KT. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE
NORTHERLY AND STRONGER CAA WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS, CHES. BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES
RIVER GENERALLY FROM 7PM TO 7AM FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY TO 4-6 FT, POSSIBLY TO 7 FT
SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES, DUE TO AN
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT, WIND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW COULD INCREASE SEAS TO 4-6 FT LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY. STRONG CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO HIGH END SCAS. LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE
A 30-40% CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 34 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE MODELS SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS.
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND FINE TUNED
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...HET/LKB
MARINE...KMC/SW
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