893
FXUS61 KAKQ 251809
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
109 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING, AND
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC. COLD AND DAMP CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND TURNS A BIT WARMER, BUT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY AND
UNSETTLED. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, FOLLOWED WITH DRY AND MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WARM CHRISTMAS DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH A CHANCE FOR
(MAINLY) MORNING SHOWERS.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NW OVER
IN/OH. NW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT ON THE NE EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE AND PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN VA
AND ERN NC THIS MORNING, BRINGING JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS 30-40% FOR MOST). OVERALL, QPF WILL
AVERAGE LESS THAN 0.10" AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ENDING BY LATE MORNING IN THE PIEDMONT, AND BY EARLY AFTN TO THE
EAST AS THE WAVE ALOFT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON AVERAGE THIS MORNING, WITH PARTLY/VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTN. WITH DECENT MIXING AND SW WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE W, HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NBM FOR
HIGHS, BLENDING IN THE HRRR WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND MUCH OF NE NC, TO THE LOWER 50S ON THE
MD EASTERN SHORE, WITH MOST OF THE REGION IN THE LOW-MID 60S,
OR ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, STRONG (NEAR 1035MB) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
QUEBEC, PUSHING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AS THE STRONG SFC HIGH RIDGES SOUTH, CLEARING SKIES
PREVAIL WITH A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE
TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHILLY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH.
THE LATEST MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY EAST FROM NORTHERN IL TO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA, FRIDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
"WEDGE" CONDITIONS (CAD). THE MODEL TRENDS SHOW A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE (WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS
NOT STARTING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING, WITH LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE NOT REALLY DEVELOPING FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL THE
AFTN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO BRING
MAINLY JUST RAIN TO THE CWA, THOUGH THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
A WINDOW FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET ACROSS THE MD EASTERN
SHORE (AND RAIN/SLEET OVER NORTHERN ZONES W OF THE BAY). GIVEN
THE WARMTH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS, LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED AND SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EVEN SLOWER
AND FARTHER NORTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF INTO THE REGION
(JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS THROUGH 00Z/SAT). THE ONLY LOCATIONS
THAT HAS MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET
(~0.1-0.2") IS THE MD EASTERN SHORE. WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION, HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WITH 40-45F
FOR MOST OF THE CWA (MID-UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F IN NE NC AND
SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS). THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW WEAKENS OVER
THE UPPER OH VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA- NC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT (MILLER B SETUP).
THE HIGHER QPF WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT (0.25" TO LOCALLY 0.50+")
FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, BY THIS TIME THE
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MILDER ATLANTIC INFLUENCE SO ALL OF
THIS WILL BECOME JUST RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING.
FOR SATURDAY, THE WEDGE AIRMASS LINGERS EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THE LOWER 60S OVER THE FAR S/SW. A
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER/DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE MD
EASTERN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING, BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE, WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY ALONG AND S OF I-64. CLOUDS
INCREASE SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30F NE TO THE
UPPER 30S/AROUND 40F IN NE NC.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTN.
- MARKEDLY COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE FINALLY TRANSLATES EAST BY SUNDAY, BUT
AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES RAPIDLY NE FROM THE
MID-MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC RIDGE IN PLACE,
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE RETURNS, BRINGING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
STAYS N OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY, WITH POPS THEN INCREASING
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES IN FROM THE
NW. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY, THOUGH THIS
APPEARS TO BE A SETUP WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS (SO QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME).
THE SLOWER TIMING WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIRMASS DELAYED, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY (HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA). MUCH COLDER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE ERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME, HIGHS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S
TUESDAY, AND IN THE LOW-MID 40S WED. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE 18Z/25 TAF
PERIOD. THE RAIN THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOSTLY DRIED OUT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER NE NC
AND THE EASTERN SHORE. THEREFORE, CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER AT ECG OR SBY DURING THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD, BUT DID LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS THIS TIME SINCE IT
LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MISS THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE,
TEMPORARILY CLEARING OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON, THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF BKN SWEEPS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT. SW WINDS
ARE GUSTING TO ~20-25KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN EXPECTING
WINDS TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH AS THEY SWITCH AROUND TO THE N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTH, AND RAIN LIKELY N. SBY
COULD SEE SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP LATE FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS COULD
LINGER SATURDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, AND IN SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCA IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AS SW WINDS
HAVE BECOME GUSTS NEAR SHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND CURRITUCK
SOUND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTH AND
INCREASE.
- SCA ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS WAVES INCREASE FROM WEAK OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS.
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE
BECOME GUSTY NEAR SHORE WITH MIXING WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 25 KT
NEAR SHORE OVER THE JAMES RIVER AND THE LOWER BAY. THESE GUSTY
WINDS DO NOT EXTEND FAR FROM THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES
DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING OVER THE COLD WATER.
A STRONG SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
STRONGER CAA WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, CHES. BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND GENERALLY FROM 7PM TO 7AM
FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY TO
4-6 FT, POSSIBLY TO 7 FT SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES, DUE TO AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT, WIND SPEEDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW COULD INCREASE SEAS
TO 4-6 FT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD LEAD GALE CONDITIONS.
LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE A 40% CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 34 KT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS SUPPORTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND FINE TUNED WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS AS PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...KMC/JAO
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