327
FXUS61 KAKQ 251941
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
241 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING, AND
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC. COLD AND DAMP CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND TURNS A BIT WARMER, BUT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY AND
UNSETTLED. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, FOLLOWED WITH DRY AND MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MILD CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON GIVES WAY TO A SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POISED
TO CROSS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THIS MORNING WITH MOST
OF THE AREA NOW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A
TAD COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST, LIKELY DUE TO THICKER
CLOUDS HANGING ON UNTIL THE LATE MORNING. LATEST OBS SHOW TEMPS
IN THE LOW 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO, SW WINDS ARE GUSTING
20 TO 25 MPH. THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA BY
EARLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF THICKER CLOUDS LIKELY ACCOMPANY
IT, THEN CLEARING OUT AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS
FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30F ALONG AND N OF
I-64 AND LOW-MID 30S TO THE S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHILLY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHEAST.
THE LATEST MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT SFC
LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY EAST FROM NORTHERN IL TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
EASTERN CANADA, FRIDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY "WEDGE" CONDITIONS
(CAD). THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EVEN REACH 40F ACROSS THE N AND ONLY UP TO THE
MID 40S ACROSS THE S. THE 12Z SUITE OF CAMS TRENDED DRIER/LATER WITH
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC LOW AND UL SHORTWAVE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXTREMELY DRY LOW/MID LEVELS, SO IT WILL
TAKE A BIT TO SATURATE AND GET PRECIP TO THE GROUND. TRENDED POPS
DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON FRI, LIMITING ANYTHING OVER 25% TO THE
EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK AND 15-20% DOWN TO AROUND THE US-460
CORRIDOR. THE CHANCES OF ANY WINTRY WEATHER MIXING IN HAVE ALSO
TRENDED DOWN FOR OUR AREA. NOW LOOKS LIKE FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD STICK
TO THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, WHICH COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
LIGHT SNOW EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO A
SLEET/RAIN MIX, THEN TO RAIN. WITH QPF TRENDING DOWN AND LESS
SNOW/SLEET IN THE FORECAST, THE ALREADY MEAGER ACCUMULATION FORECAST
HAS GOTTEN EVEN LOWER (AKA NOTHING). THE CAMS DEPICT A SECONDARY
WAVE OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT AND A
SECONDARY SFC LOW FORMS OFF OF THE COAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE FIRST WAVE, BUT STILL LARGELY LIMITED TO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THIS WILL ALL BE RAIN WITH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BY THIS POINT. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE N TO THE MID 40S IN THE SE.
BACK TO DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TEMPS FOR SATURDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LINGERING OVER THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECASTING A SPREAD FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE SW TO THE MID 40S IN THE NE. HOWEVER, THOSE 40 DEGREE
HIGHS COULD EASILY MAKE THEIR WAY FURTHER SOUTH DEPENDING ON WHAT
THAT FRONT DOES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE 30S SAT NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTN.
- MARKEDLY COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE FINALLY TRANSLATES EAST BY SUNDAY, BUT AS
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES RAPIDLY NE FROM THE MID-MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC RIDGE IN PLACE, OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE RETURNS, BRINGING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP STAYS N OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH POPS THEN INCREASING SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES IN FROM THE NW. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY, THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE A SETUP WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS (SO QPF AMOUNTS LOOK
FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME). THE SLOWER TIMING WILL KEEP THE COLDER
AIRMASS DELAYED, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY (HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, MAYBE EVEN
70 IN THE SE ). MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME, HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S TUESDAY, AND IN THE MID-UPPER 40S WED.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE 18Z/25 TAF
PERIOD. THE RAIN THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOSTLY DRIED OUT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER NE NC
AND THE EASTERN SHORE. THEREFORE, CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER AT ECG OR SBY DURING THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD, BUT DID LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS THIS TIME SINCE IT
LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MISS THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE,
TEMPORARILY CLEARING OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON, THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF BKN SWEEPS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT. SW WINDS
ARE GUSTING TO ~20-25KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN EXPECTING
WINDS TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH AS THEY SWITCH AROUND TO THE N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTH, AND RAIN LIKELY N. SBY
COULD SEE SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP LATE FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS COULD
LINGER SATURDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, AND IN SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCA IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AS SW WINDS
HAVE BECOME GUSTS NEAR SHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND CURRITUCK
SOUND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTH AND
INCREASE.
- SCA ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS WAVES INCREASE FROM WEAK OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS.
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE
BECOME GUSTY NEAR SHORE WITH MIXING WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 25 KT
NEAR SHORE OVER THE JAMES RIVER AND THE LOWER BAY. THESE GUSTY
WINDS DO NOT EXTEND FAR FROM THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES
DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING OVER THE COLD WATER.
A STRONG SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
STRONGER CAA WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, CHES. BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND GENERALLY FROM 7PM TO 7AM
FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY TO
4-6 FT, POSSIBLY TO 7 FT SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES, DUE TO AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT, WIND SPEEDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW COULD INCREASE SEAS
TO 4-6 FT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD LEAD GALE CONDITIONS.
LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE A 40% CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 34 KT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS SUPPORTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND FINE TUNED WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS AS PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC/LKB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...KMC/JAO
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