068
FXUS61 KAKQ 260747
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
247 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SYSTEM MOVES
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE WEEKEND TURNS A BIT WARMER,
BUT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED. A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS,
FOLLOWED WITH DRY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHILLY TODAY IN WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS AND SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARDS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST CAUSING CAD WEDGE TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING. THE WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE TODAY, PEAKING TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. DURING THE
DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH OUT OF THE UPPER 30S FOR
MOST AND LOWER 40S FOR SE VA/NE NC.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE HIGH-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY LOW/MID LAYER ALOFT, WHICH WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE AND GET PRECIP TO THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF THIS,
QPF TOTALS REMAIN LOW, BELOW 0.05" ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND NONE
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THE CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY MIX
HAS CONTINUED TO DOWNTREND, NOW WITH THE MD EASTERN SHORE ONLY
SEEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP. AS TEMPERATURES TREND
UPWARD DURING THE DAY, THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL GO THROUGH A FEW
TRANSITION PHASES OF A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON,
TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SLEET MIX, THEN PLAIN RAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS
VERY DRY LAYER, TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TO FALL TO THE WET BULB
TEMPERATURE, WHICH WOULD BE BELOW FREEZING, ALLOWING THE WINTRY MIX
TO LINGER SLIGHTLY INTO THE EVENING. WITH LITTLE QPF AND ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP, NO ACCUMULATION OF SLEET/SNOW IS
EXPECTED.
THEN IN THE EVENING, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALOFT CREATING
A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP FOR THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE FIRST WAVE, BUT WILL FOCUS ON THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. QPF TOTALS WITH THIS WAVE ARE TRACE UP TO 0.25", WITH
THE EASTERN SHORE SEEING THE HIGHEST TOTALS. TEMPERATURES AT THIS
TIME WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, SO NO WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THE
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WON'T COOL
DOWN MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER SATURDAY WITH THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR ERODING CAUSING A LARGE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE, BUT THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LINGERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXTENDED
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE WEDGE INFLUENCING THE AREA'S TEMPERATURES WITH THE
COOLER AIR BEGINNING TO ERODE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS ABLE TO RECEDE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S ON THE
EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR NORTH CAROLINA. IF THE
FRONT STALLS, HIGHS COULD EASILY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S.
THE 06Z/26 HRRR SHOWS TEMPERATURES SIMILAR WITH THE FORECAST WHILE
THE 06Z/26 NAM RUN HOLDS ONTO THE COOLER AIRMASS LONGER, WHICH IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS MODEL. LOWS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S FOR
MOST AND UPPER 30S FOR SE VA/NE NC.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
- MARKEDLY COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES RAPIDLY NE FROM THE MID-MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC RIDGE IN PLACE. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING
POPS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS MONDAY, THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE A SETUP WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
DOES NOT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS (SO QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME). THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO DRAG, WITH PRECIP
LIKELY ARRIVING MONDAY MORNING RATHER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
DELAYED TIMING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO REACH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST TO LOWER 70S IN SE VA/NE
NC. BEHIND THE FRONT, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE
EASTERN CONUS BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S MOST DAYS AND
LOWS IN THE 20S. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM EST FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z/26 TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING. NE WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 10 KT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TODAY, BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FOR SBY. VSBY COULD DECREASE
WITH RAIN AT SBY IN THE EVENING. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MIXED PRECIP AT SBY (NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PROB30), BUT VERY
LITTLE, NON-ACCUMULATING SLEET OR A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT PHF/ORF LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WHICH MAY BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY SATURDAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING BEHIND RAIN. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND TODAY DUE TO ELEVATED N-NE
WINDS AND SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN TONIGHT.
- SCAS NOW APPEAR LIKELY ON SATURDAY DUE TO INCREASING NORTH WINDS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
- CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS IS INCREASING MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH W-NW WINDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
N-NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT (WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT) DUE TO A CAA SURGE EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE
4-6 FT WITH 2-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY (HIGHEST S). WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT BY LATE MORNING AND VEER TO THE SE BY THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER RIVERS. DESPITE
THE DIMINISHING WINDS, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTN
(ESPECIALLY S OF CAPE CHARLES). SO WHILE SCAS EXPIRE AT 7 AM FOR THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES/CURRITUCK SOUND, HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 1-
4 PM FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS BECOME W-NW AT 10-15 KT EARLY SAT
AM AS THE LOW TRACKS ESE ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SCAS NOW APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME
N AT ~20 KT DURING THE DAY (W/ 25-30 KT GUSTS) DUE TO THE LOW
DEEPENING OFFSHORE OF THE VA COAST. LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES FOR
SUSTAINED 18 KT+ WINDS ARE NEAR 100% ON THE BAY DURING THE DAY ON
SAT WITH HIGH (70-90%) PROBS OF 25 KT GUSTS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT
TONIGHT BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO 5-6+ FT ON SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW THE
CURRENT SCAS TO EXPIRE BEFORE ISSUING NEW HEADLINES FOR SAT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUN NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS.
VERY STRONG (SUB 980 MB) LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO OUR N/NW ON
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING. S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 KT ARE LIKELY
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES. THEN, WINDS
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT,
AND MIXING OVER THE WATER WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS CAA ENSUES
MONDAY EVENING-MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF 35-
40 KT GUSTS MONDAY EVENING-MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT IS
INCREASING. IN FACT, LOCAL WIND PROBS OF 34+ KT GUSTS ARE NOW 80-
100% OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS FOR A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD, WITH 40-
60% PROBS ACROSS THE CHES BAY. WHILE GALE GUST POTENTIAL DECREASES
BY MID-LATE TUESDAY AM, SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO ELEVATED WNW WINDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH
TO JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON WED. WITH THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW, SEAS WON'T BUILD HIGHER THAN 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT-TUE
AM.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...KMC/LKB
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...AC/KMC
LONG TERM...AC/KMC
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...ERI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page