971
FXUS61 KAKQ 261940
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
240 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SYSTEM MOVES
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE WEEKEND TURNS A BIT WARMER,
BUT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED. A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS,
FOLLOWED WITH DRY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHILLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
LINGERING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHERN MI/NW
OH. COOL HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS RIDGING
DOWN THE COAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA, PLACING THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
EASTERLY FLOW. THUS, DREARY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN. DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC HAS LARGELY LIMITED ANY SORT OF QPF.
TEMPS ARE COOL AS WELL. LATEST OBS INDICATE MOST PLACES IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 FOR MOST PLACES AND THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE FAR
SE.
LATER THIS EVENING, THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT
BY TO THE NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL HELP RAIN TO BECOME A BIT STEADIER, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE. A LOT DRIER W OF THE BAY, BUT COULD STILL HAVE SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. QPF OF LESS THAN 0.25" ON THE EASTERN
SHORE, JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS DRY OUT PRETTY
QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE N BEHIND IT, PRESSING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTH. TEMPS STAY FAIRLY STEADY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE N AND UPPER 30S-MID 40S SOUTH OF
I-64.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND COOL SATURDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH DOWN THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEDGE INFLUENCING THE AREA'S
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COOLER AIR BEGINNING TO ERODE. BLENDED
GUIDANCE TENDS TO ERODE THE COOL AIR TOO QUICKLY, SO LEANED INTO THE
HREF/NAM FOR TEMPS TOMORROW SINCE THEY TEND TO HANDLE THESE SET UPS
A LITTLE BETTER. THIS YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM ~40F ON THE MD
EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FA. LOWS
SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT
FOR SUNDAY AS THE UL RIDGE FINALLY TRANSLATES EAST AND THE SFC HIGH
SLIDES TO THE SE, RETURNING SFC FLOW TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW AHEAD OF IT, TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS TRENDED LATER. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER REGARDLESS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
- MARKEDLY COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON,
INCREASING POPS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING. THIS EVENT CONTINUES
TO TREND DRIER. LIKELY POPS ARE NOW LIMITED TO FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. QPF LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY LOW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING UNDER 0.1" OF RAIN. WAA
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUTS TEMPS IN THE 60S AND EVEN AS HIGH
AS THE LOWER 70S IN THE SE. MONDAY LOOKS GUSTY AS WELL WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE
EASTERN CONUS BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S MOST DAYS AND LOWS
IN THE 20S. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST FRIDAY...
OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE 18Z/26 TAF PERIOD
WITH MIXED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECTING CIGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL ~06Z TONIGHT,
LINGERING THE LONGEST AT SBY. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE IFR AT SBY,
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WOULD NOT BE UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF THE
18Z PERIOD. LATEST RADAR DEPICTS LIGHT RAIN ALREADY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT IT HAS MOSTLY STAYED AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS SO FAR. EXPECTING RAIN TO BE THE STEADIER AT SBY LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY IMPACT VSBYS. WINDS
START OUT OF THE ENE THIS AFTERNOON ROTATING AROUND TO THE SW
THIS EVENING, THEN BACK TO THE N BY TOMORROW MORNING. N WINDS
BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: LINGERING LOWERED CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SBY WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING SUNDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE SHOWERS TO THE
AREA.
MARINE
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES.
- SCAS GO INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING NORTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
- CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS IS INCREASING MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH W-NW WINDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1028MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QC.
~1002 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER W OH, AND WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. E-NE
WINDS 5-10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE ONGOING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS 3-4 FT
NORTH, 4-6 FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. SEAS 1-2 FT, UP TO 3 FT IN THE
MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST CROSSES THE LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE E-SE ~10-15 KT TO THE W-
NW LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS THE LOW CROSSES THE DELMARVA AND
SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT STRONGER
WITH THE LOW, AND WITH THE MORE COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT, OUR IN-
HOUSE WIND PROBS CONTINUE TO INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS
AROUND AND ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE SAT MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY MORNING INTO SAT EVENING OVER THE
BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER AND SOUND, AS WINDS NNE ~20 KT PERSIST FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTN/EVENING W/25-30 KT GUSTS. ON THE
COASTAL WATERS SIDE, PERSISTENT NE SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SCA LEVEL
SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SUBSIDE BRIEFLY,
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY, WITH NNE WIND WAVES BUMPING
SEAS BACK UP AGAIN. FOR THAT REASON, SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THIS LULL TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FARTHER NORTH, SCAS HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY, SEAS INCREASE AGAIN HERE
ALSO TOMORROW, AND SCA WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT TOMORROW MORNING
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTN.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HAZARDOUS SEAS, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY RETURNS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING SSW ~10LT
BY EVENING. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT SUN NIGHT. STRONG AND RAPIDLY
DEEPENING (SUB 980 MB) LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO OUR N/NW ON
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING. INCREASINGLY STRONG S-SW WINDS OF
15-25 KT ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS ALL MARINE
ZONES. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY SSW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO ~30 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH POST-FRONTAL STRONG CAA QUICKLY ENHANCING VERTICAL MIXING.
GIVEN SST IN THE L-M 40S, EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF AN
APPROACHING 45-50 KT LLJ LIKELY RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF NUMEROUS TO
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY EVENING-MONDAY NIGHT. LOCAL WIND
PROBS OF 34+ KT GUSTS REMAIN 80-100% OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE MORNING, WITH 40-60% PROBS ACROSS THE CHES BAY. WHILE GALE
GUST POTENTIAL DECREASES BY MID-LATE TUESDAY AM, SCA CONDITIONS DUE
TO ELEVATED WNW WINDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE
WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON WED. WITH THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW, SEAS WON'T BUILD HIGHER THAN 4-7 FT
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE AM.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...KMC/LKB
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC/KMC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...MAM
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