336
FXUS61 KAKQ 270731
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
231 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, FOLLOWED WITH DRY AND MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND COOL TODAY AS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1028MB) TO THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO WEDGE
CAD DOWN THE COAST. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR FROM A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REINFORCES THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY, WHICH WILL
PREVENT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM CREEPING BACK IN. NORTHERLY
WINDS THAT COULD BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COOL DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST ON
THE EASTERN SHORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND WARMEST IN INTERIOR NC IN THE
MID 50S. BLENDED GUIDANCE LIKE THE NBM TENDS TO ERODE THE COOLER AIR
TOO QUICKLY, SO HAVE RELIED ON THE HREF/NAM, WHICH TEND TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLING ON EVENTS LIKE THIS. WILL NOTE THAT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES PREVENTS THIS FROM BEING A MORE PREDOMINATE WEDGE EVENT, WHICH
COULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
ERODING OF THE COOLER AIR, TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE OFF A FEW
DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S INLAND AND MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING, BUT
WITH LITTLE TOTAL RAINFALL.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD, PUSHING THE
SURFACE HIGH TOWARDS THE SE. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DRAGGING BEHIND. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, OVERCAST SKIES WILL PUSH IN AS
A MORE CLASSIC WEDGE SETS UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE MD
EASTERN SHORE TO MID 50S IN THE SE VA/NE NC. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION, THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY FOR
THE COASTAL REGIONS, THEN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. LOWS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH POPS INCREASING
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE
AREA AND LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. QPF TOTALS REMAIN LOW
WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING NONE TO A TRACE AND UP TO UNDER
0.10" OF RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WAA AND GUSTY SW WINDS ON MONDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, MAYBE
NEAR 70F FOR SE VA/NE NC. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER RETURN BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH OUT OF THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AND WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEEK, WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT YEAR.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM EST SATURDAY...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
CIGS HAVE RISEN AND CLEARED OUT. A STRONG LLJ HAS HELPED CLEAR THE
CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA, AS WELL AS INCREASED LLWS. HAVE MAINTAINED
35-40 KT LLWS THROUGH 08-11Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS EARLY
THIS MORNING, MAINLY AT SBY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
SBY AFTER 14Z AND LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH SAT NIGHT APART FROM MVFR-IFR AT SBY.
WINDS ARE SW OVERNIGHT, BECOMING W THEN N BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING. BREEZY N WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST TO 20-
25 KT.
OUTLOOK: LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL DEGRADED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT BRINGS POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO NORTH WINDS OF 20-25
KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT- SUNDAY.
- A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS IS LIKELY LATE MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH W-NW WINDS BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT (LOCALLY 20-
25 KT IN THE LOWER BAY WHERE SCAS START NOW). SEAS ARE ~4 FT, WITH 1-
3 FT WAVES ON THE BAY. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS ESE TO A
POSITION A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE VA COAST TODAY. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTH (TO 20-25 KT) AS THE LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE, WITH
ELEVATED N WINDS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
ARE LIKELY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE
LOW, WITH A LOW CHC OF A FEW 35 KT GUSTS AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER RIVERS THROUGH AT
LEAST 7-10 PM. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT TODAY. WHILE N-NE WINDS DIMINISH
TO 5-10 KT BY LATE TONIGHT, NORTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT/SUNDAY. AS SUCH, SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE S-SW WINDS INCREASE TO ~20
KT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING (SUB 980 MB) LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY
WELL TO OUR N/NW ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 5-9 PM MONDAY.
INCREASINGLY STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT (W/ GUSTS TO 30 KT) ARE
LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES. WINDS
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT,
AND POST-FRONTAL STRONG CAA WILL QUICKLY ENHANCE VERTICAL MIXING.
DESPITE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THE 00Z/27 MODEL WIND FORECASTS,
STILL FEEL THAT A PERIOD OF FREQUENT 35-40 KT GUSTS OUT OF THE WNW
IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM GIVEN 925-850MB WINDS
AVERAGING 35-45 KT (HIGHEST N) BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE GUSTS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC WITH WATER TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
COMBINED / DECENT CAA. LOCAL WIND PROBS OF 34+ KT GUSTS HAVE
DECREASED TO 70-90% OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS FOR A 6-9 HOUR
PERIOD AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING, WITH
30-50% PROBS ACROSS THE CHES BAY. WHILE GALE GUST POTENTIAL
DECREASES BY MID-LATE TUESDAY AM, SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO ELEVATED WNW
WINDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON WED. WITH THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW, SEAS WON'T BUILD HIGHER THAN 4-7 FT MONDAY
NIGHT-TUE AM.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...AC/KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KMC/RMM
MARINE...ERI
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