659
FXUS61 KAKQ 271848
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, FOLLOWED WITH DRY AND MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND COOL TODAY AS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1028MB) TO THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO WEDGE
CAD DOWN THE COAST. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR FROM A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REINFORCES THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY, WHICH WILL
PREVENT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM CREEPING BACK IN. NORTHERLY
WINDS THAT COULD BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COOL DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST ON
THE EASTERN SHORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND WARMEST IN INTERIOR NC IN THE
MID 50S. BLENDED GUIDANCE LIKE THE NBM TENDS TO ERODE THE COOLER AIR
TOO QUICKLY, SO HAVE RELIED ON THE HREF/NAM, WHICH TEND TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLING ON EVENTS LIKE THIS. WILL NOTE THAT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES PREVENTS THIS FROM BEING A MORE PREDOMINATE WEDGE EVENT, WHICH
COULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
ERODING OF THE COOLER AIR, TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE OFF A FEW
DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S INLAND AND MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING, BUT
WITH LITTLE TOTAL RAINFALL.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD, PUSHING THE
SURFACE HIGH TOWARDS THE SE. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DRAGGING BEHIND. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, OVERCAST SKIES WILL PUSH IN AS
A MORE CLASSIC WEDGE SETS UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE MD
EASTERN SHORE TO MID 50S IN THE SE VA/NE NC. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION, THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY FOR
THE COASTAL REGIONS, THEN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. LOWS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH POPS INCREASING
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE
AREA AND LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. QPF TOTALS REMAIN LOW
WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING NONE TO A TRACE AND UP TO UNDER
0.10" OF RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WAA AND GUSTY SW WINDS ON MONDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, MAYBE
NEAR 70F FOR SE VA/NE NC. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER RETURN BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH OUT OF THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AND WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEEK, WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM EST SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCLUDING SBY. SCT TO
BKN MVFR CIGS (BASES ~1500 FT) WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO SBY
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, BECOMING BKN TO OVC INTO TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION, CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT SBY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AT THE
OTHER SITES, THOUGH SCT TO BKN CIGS AROUND 3000 FT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IMPACTING RIC. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST (ORF, PHF, ECG) LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE BREEZY OUT OF THE N TO NE, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DEGRADED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO
THE AREA.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO NORTH WINDS OF 20-25
KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT- SUNDAY.
- A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS IS LIKELY LATE MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH W-NW WINDS BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT.
THROUGH TONIGHT: NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20-25 KT, GUSTS TO
30 KT GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FARTHER OFFSHORE. SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER RIVERS THROUGH
7-10PM EST, BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED EARLIER IN THE
EVENING OVER THE SOUND AND LOWER JAMES IN PARTICULAR, AS WINDS
DIMINISH. WINDS VEER TO THE E-SE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING,
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
SEAS CURRENTLY 4-5 FT NORTH, 5-7 FT SOUTH IN PERSISTENT WIND
WAVE FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW, WHICH WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, AND THROUGH SUNDAY SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES
IN LINGERING NE SWELL (6-8 SECONDS). SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN OCEAN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, AND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING (SUB 980 MB) LOW PRESSURE
PASSES BY WELL TO OUR N/NW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, IT
DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE WATERS, WITH THAT FRONT
CROSSING THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 5-9 PM EST MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, INCREASINGLY STRONG (SCA LEVEL) S-SW WINDS
OF 20-25 KT (W/ GUSTS TO 30 KT) ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM SECTOR
MONDAY ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
NEARSHORE. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS, WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TO THE W-NW MONDAY EVENING INTO LATE MON NIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND POST- FRONTAL STRONG CAA WILL QUICKLY
ENHANCE VERTICAL MIXING. 12Z/27 MODEL SUITE STILL SUPPORTS A
PERIOD OF FREQUENT W-NW GUSTS OF UP TO 40 KT DURING THIS PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM GIVEN 925-850MB WINDS
AVERAGING 35-45 KT (HIGHEST N) BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE GUSTS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC WITH WATER TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S COMBINED / DECENT CAA. LOCAL WIND PROBS OF 34+ KT
GUSTS HAVE DECREASED A BIT, BUT REMAIN 60-80% OVER MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD AROUND AND JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING, WITH 20-50% PROBS ACROSS THE
CHES BAY. WHILE GALE FORCE GUST POTENTIAL DECREASES AS THE
GRADIENT QUICKLY SLACKENS TUESDAY MORNING, IT WILL REMAIN
COMPRESSED ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
TUE NIGHT BEFORE NNW WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS ON WED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WATERS. WITH THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW, SEAS WON'T
BUILD HIGHER THAN 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT- TUE AM.
WINDS TURN W-SW AGAIN WED/WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ632>634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...AC/KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...ERI/MAM
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