783
FXUS61 KAKQ 281052
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
552 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FORCING TEMPERATURES TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, FOLLOWED WITH DRY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DREARY, BUT DRY, DAY WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE THE LOCAL AREA AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE MIDWEST. A CAD "WEDGE" AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN SOME EROSION BEGINS AS WINDS
SHIFT SOUTHERLY FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND WITH A WARM
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS WEDGE AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, SOME LOWER 50S
IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STEADY INCREASE AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING/EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
STARTING IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S BY SUNRISE. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT LITTLE TO NO QPF IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGION.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN TANGENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALLOWS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, CAUSING MONDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
SE VA/NE NC. THEN, AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY, THOUGH QPF TOTALS REMAIN LOW,
LESS THAN 0.10". SKY COVER WILL CLEAR CLEAR OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG CAA USHERS INTO THE AREA. THE STRONG CAA
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME WELL MIXED AND WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT WILL THEN
BE MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S INLAND AND UPPER 20S ALONG
THE COAST.
A STRONG ~980 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE ON
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE CAA OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH (30-35 MPH ON
THE EASTERN SHORE) TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR TO START THE NEW YEAR, DROPPING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 550 AM EST SUNDAY...
MVFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT GAP IN THE CLOUD DECK JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, AND PHF HAS VFR CIGS. RIC WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT WILL SEE HIGH-END MVFR CIGS AROUND 16-18Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR SBY/ECG/ORF/PHF EARLY
MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT SBY/PHF WILL RETURN TO MVFR CIGS IN THE
EVENING AROUND 00-01Z/29 AS A LOWER CLOUD DECK RETURN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. LOWERED CLOUD DECKS WILL RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WITH MVFR/IFR (AND LOCALLY LIFR) CIGS EXPECTED
BEGINNING AROUND 06Z/29 FOR ALL TERMINALS EXPECT ECG, WHICH
WILL SEE DEGRADED CIGS LATER.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY,
SHIFTING LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON TO BE SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY
UP TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL NOTE
THAT A STRONG LLJ (~50-60KT) WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME LLWS AFTER 06Z/29.
OUTLOOK: IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD FRONT. DRY AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED
SEAS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS IS LIKELY LATE MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH W-NW WINDS BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY AND
OCEAN.
- SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUE/TUE NIGHT AS
THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS CONTINUE.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH N WINDS
AROUND 10 KT BUT ELEVATED SEAS (4-5 FT NORTH/5-6 FT SOUTH) DUE TO
SWELL FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN
TODAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 10
KT BY LATE AFTN. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DRAGS A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. S WINDS OF ~20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
WILL BE COMMON BY EARLY MON AM. THEREFORE, SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND STARTING TONIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES FOR THE OCEAN TO AVOID A DOUBLE SCA HEADLINE. AS THE
RAPIDLY DEEPENING (SUB 980 MB) LOW PASSES BY WELL TO OUR N/NW ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, IT DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
WATERS, WITH THAT FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 4-8 PM EST MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, INCREASINGLY STRONG (SCA LEVEL) S-SW WINDS OF 20-
25 KT (W/ GUSTS TO 30 KT) ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY
ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEARSHORE. AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS, WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE W-NW MONDAY
EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND STRONG POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL QUICKLY ENHANCE
VERTICAL MIXING. 00Z/28 GUIDANCE REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S
RUNS...AND STILL SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF FREQUENT W-NW GUSTS OF 35-40
KT FROM MONDAY EVENING-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN 925-850MB WINDS
AVERAGING 35-45 KT (HIGHEST N) BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE GUSTS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC WITH WATER TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
COMBINED WITH DECENT CAA. LOCAL WIND PROBS OF 34+ KT GUSTS HAVE
INCREASED TO 80-95% OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS FOR A 6-9 HOUR
PERIOD FROM 9 PM MON-5 AM TUE, WITH 30-50% PROBS ACROSS THE CHES
BAY. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TUE AM...BUT FREQUENT 35 KT GUSTS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. GIVEN THE ABOVE
(AND THE FACT THAT THE ONSET TIME IS ~36 HOURS OUT), HAVE ISSUED
GALE WATCHES FROM 21Z/4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 09Z/4 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
BAY/OCEAN, WITH WATCHES THROUGH 21Z/4 PM TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN 2
COASTAL ZONES. MAY NEED GALE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER JAMES IF WINDS
TREND UPWARD WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SCAS FOR THE RIVERS/SOUND RUN
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH TUE/TUE NIGHT BEFORE WNW WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH TO JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON WED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE WATERS. WITH THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW, SEAS WON'T
BUILD HIGHER THAN 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT-TUE AM. WAVES WILL PEAK
BETWEEN 3-5 FT ON THE CHES BAY.
WINDS TURN W-SW AGAIN WED/WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ630>632-634-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ633-635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...AJB/KMC
LONG TERM...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...ERI
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