447
FXUS61 KAKQ 281941
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
241 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FORCING TEMPERATURES TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, FOLLOWED WITH DRY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST. RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT BEHIND A WARM
FRONT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS WEDGING A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST OBS SHOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, UPPER 40S IN THE FAR
SE. THE DAY HAS BEEN RATHER DREARY WITH OVERCAST SKIES SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT PUSHES THE HIGH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, WHICH IS SET TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW,
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE FA, POTENTIALLY AS WARM AT 60 IN
THE SE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TOMORROW,
CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 IN THE SE VA/NE NC. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. THEN, AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY, THOUGH QPF TOTALS REMAIN LOW,
LESS THAN 0.10". SHOWERS ENTER THE NW CORNER OF THE FA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW, PROGRESSING SE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SKY COVER
WILL CLEAR CLEAR OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG
CAA USHERS INTO THE AREA. STRONG MIXING COMBINED WITH A 50KT+ LLJ
WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST TO 25-35 MPH INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BE MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
INLAND AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST.
A STRONG ~980 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE ON
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE CAA OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH (30-35 MPH ON
THE EASTERN SHORE) TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUES NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE 20S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 240 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
THE END OF THE WEEK.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR TO START THE NEW YEAR, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN
THE 40S TO AROUND 50 AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NOT MUCH WARMER
SATURDAY, BUT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE S/SE.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM EST SUNDAY...
OVERCAST SKIES ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. AS OF LATEST OBS, ORF WAS
THE ONLY EXCEPTION, BUT THE LOWER CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO
ORF AS WELL. MVFR PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING. CIGS DROP TO IFR AT
SBY AND RIC LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TOMORROW MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PRECIP IN THE TAFS, THOUGH, SINCE RAIN
WILL BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN WITH EACH MODEL RUN
TRENDING DRIER. LIGHT S WINDS TODAY GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EVEN GUSTIER W WINDS BEHIND IT. GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30KT EXPECTED TOMORROW. A LLJ OF 50KT+ WILL LEAD TO LLWS
ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z UNTIL ~15Z.
OUTLOOK: IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD FRONT. DRY AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 240 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
- A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS IS LIKELY LATE MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH W-NW WINDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY AND OCEAN.
- SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE
GUSTY W-NW WINDS CONTINUE.
1022+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND COASTAL CAROLINAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST, DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCALLY, SUB-SCA S-SE
WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AOB 10KT. SEAS WERE 3-4 FT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS, AND 4-6 FT SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. WAVES 1FT
OR LESS.
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THE NC WATERS (ANZ658) FOR ELEVATED SEAS
AIDED BY PERSISTENT NE SWELL FROM THE YESTERDAY'S COASTAL LOW, WHICH
IS NOW WELL NE OF BERMUDA. OTHERWISE, WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10-
15 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, AS THE DEEPENING LOW
LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. S WINDS OF ~20 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE COMMON BY EARLY MON AM. SCAS STILL GO
BACK INTO EFFECT FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND STARTING LATE TONIGHT. SCA
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS GO BACK INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT, AS WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT, WITH GUSTS TO ~20 KT BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING (SUB 980 MB) LOW PASSES BY WELL TO OUR N/NW ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, IT DRAGS A STRONG COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE WATERS, WITH THAT FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS THE
WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 4-8PM MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, INCREASINGLY STRONG (SCA LEVEL) S-SW WINDS OF 20-
25 KT (W/ GUSTS TO 30 KT) ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY
ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEARSHORE. AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS, WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE W-NW MONDAY
EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND STRONG POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL QUICKLY ENHANCE
VERTICAL MIXING. 12Z/28 GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS FREQUENT W-NW GUSTS
OF 35-40 KT FROM MONDAY EVENING-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN 925-
850MB WINDS AVERAGING 35-45 KT (HIGHEST N) BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE
GUSTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC WITH WATER TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S COMBINED WITH DECENT CAA. LOCAL WIND PROBS OF 34+ KT
GUSTS HAVE INCREASED TO 80-100% OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD FROM 9 PM MON-5 AM TUE, WITH 40-70+% PROBS ACROSS
THE CHES BAY. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA TUE AM...BUT FREQUENT 35 KT GUSTS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. GIVEN
THE ABOVE (AND THE FACT THAT THE ONSET TIME IS ~24 HOURS OUT), HAVE
CONVERTED THE GALE WATCHES OVER TO WARNINGS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT/6PM
THROUGH 09Z/4 AM TUESDAY FOR THE CHES BAY AND OCEAN ZONES NORTH OF
THE VA/NC BORDER (WARNING GOES TO MIDDAY TUESDAY N OF CHINCOTEAGUE).
FARTHER SOUTH, MAINTAINED WATCHES THROUGH 21Z/4 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER, GIVEN SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAA AND SHORTER DURATION OF PEAK WINDS. SIMILAR STORY FOR THE
LOWER JAMES RIVER, WHILE PROBS REMAIN LOW FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS, A
BRIEF SURGE OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
LIKELY BEST HANDLED WITH SMW (HENCE THE SCA THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED).
HOWEVER, GALE WARNINGS MAY YET BE NEEDED FOR LOWER JAMES IF WINDS
TREND UPWARD WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SCAS FOR THE RIVERS/SOUND RUN
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUE/TUE NIGHT BEFORE WNW
WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON WED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS. WITH THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW, SEAS WON'T BUILD HIGHER THAN 4-7 FT MONDAY
NIGHT-TUE AM. WAVES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 3-5 FT ON THE CHES BAY. WINDS
TURN W-SW AGAIN WED/WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ633-635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ654-
656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ658.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/KMC
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC/KMC
LONG TERM...AC/KMC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...MAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page