497
FXUS61 KAKQ 290559
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1259 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FORCING TEMPERATURES TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, FOLLOWED WITH DRY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 705 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
- RISING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND A WARM FRONT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPS AS OF 7 PM RANGED
FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE MON, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE FA, POTENTIALLY AS WARM AS 60F ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. GIVEN
THE WAA, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FA THIS
EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS BECOME SW AND BREEZY
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE (HIGHEST WINDS
LATE TONIGHT).
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TOMORROW,
CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 IN THE SE VA/NE NC. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. THEN, AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY, THOUGH QPF TOTALS REMAIN LOW,
LESS THAN 0.10". SHOWERS ENTER THE NW CORNER OF THE FA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW, PROGRESSING SE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SKY COVER
WILL CLEAR CLEAR OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG
CAA USHERS INTO THE AREA. STRONG MIXING COMBINED WITH A 50KT+ LLJ
WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST TO 25-35 MPH INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BE MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
INLAND AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST.
A STRONG ~980 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE ON
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE CAA OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH (30-35 MPH ON
THE EASTERN SHORE) TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUES NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE 20S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 240 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
THE END OF THE WEEK.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR TO START THE NEW YEAR, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN
THE 40S TO AROUND 50 AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NOT MUCH WARMER
SATURDAY, BUT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE S/SE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST MONDAY...
CLOUDY SKIES WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THIS EARLY MORNING AS WAA LIFTS MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE MOST PREDOMINANT WITH IFR CIGS
MOVING INTO SBY AND, HERE SHORTLY, RIC. WITH THIS, HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR RIC, AS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BY 07Z/29. ECG AND ORF
ARE CURRENTLY VFR, WITH AN EXPECTED DROP TO MVFR FOR ORF BY 08Z/29,
WHILE ECG WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
ORF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CIG DROP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MON MORNING ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS,
IMPROVING TO VFR AS CLOUDS CLEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SOME LOWER VSBY IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS AND HAVE INCLUDED
THESE SHOWERS FOR SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG.
A STRONG (50-60 KT) LLJ OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO EARLY MORNING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS SUCH, SW LLWS OF AROUND 45 KT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH 50 KT OF LLWS POSSIBLE AT SBY. SW
WINDS OF 10-13 KT HAVE BEGUN TO GUST TO 20 KT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT THIS MORNING. WINDS
BECOME W BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INCREASING
TO 30-35 KT.
OUTLOOK: WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. DRY AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 240 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
- A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS IS LIKELY LATE MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH W-NW WINDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY AND OCEAN.
- SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE
GUSTY W-NW WINDS CONTINUE.
1022+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND COASTAL CAROLINAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST, DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCALLY, SUB-SCA S-SE
WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AOB 10KT. SEAS WERE 3-4 FT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS, AND 4-6 FT SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. WAVES 1FT
OR LESS.
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THE NC WATERS (ANZ658) FOR ELEVATED SEAS
AIDED BY PERSISTENT NE SWELL FROM THE YESTERDAY'S COASTAL LOW, WHICH
IS NOW WELL NE OF BERMUDA. OTHERWISE, WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10-
15 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, AS THE DEEPENING LOW
LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. S WINDS OF ~20 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE COMMON BY EARLY MON AM. SCAS STILL GO
BACK INTO EFFECT FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND STARTING LATE TONIGHT. SCA
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS GO BACK INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT, AS WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT, WITH GUSTS TO ~20 KT BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING (SUB 980 MB) LOW PASSES BY WELL TO OUR N/NW ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, IT DRAGS A STRONG COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE WATERS, WITH THAT FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS THE
WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 4-8PM MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, INCREASINGLY STRONG (SCA LEVEL) S-SW WINDS OF 20-
25 KT (W/ GUSTS TO 30 KT) ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY
ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEARSHORE. AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS, WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE W-NW MONDAY
EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND STRONG POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL QUICKLY ENHANCE
VERTICAL MIXING. 12Z/28 GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS FREQUENT W-NW GUSTS
OF 35-40 KT FROM MONDAY EVENING-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN 925-
850MB WINDS AVERAGING 35-45 KT (HIGHEST N) BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE
GUSTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC WITH WATER TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S COMBINED WITH DECENT CAA. LOCAL WIND PROBS OF 34+ KT
GUSTS HAVE INCREASED TO 80-100% OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD FROM 9 PM MON-5 AM TUE, WITH 40-70+% PROBS ACROSS
THE CHES BAY. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA TUE AM...BUT FREQUENT 35 KT GUSTS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. GIVEN
THE ABOVE (AND THE FACT THAT THE ONSET TIME IS ~24 HOURS OUT), HAVE
CONVERTED THE GALE WATCHES OVER TO WARNINGS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT/6PM
THROUGH 09Z/4 AM TUESDAY FOR THE CHES BAY AND OCEAN ZONES NORTH OF
THE VA/NC BORDER (WARNING GOES TO MIDDAY TUESDAY N OF CHINCOTEAGUE).
FARTHER SOUTH, MAINTAINED WATCHES THROUGH 21Z/4 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER, GIVEN SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAA AND SHORTER DURATION OF PEAK WINDS. SIMILAR STORY FOR THE
LOWER JAMES RIVER, WHILE PROBS REMAIN LOW FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS, A
BRIEF SURGE OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
LIKELY BEST HANDLED WITH SMW (HENCE THE SCA THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED).
HOWEVER, GALE WARNINGS MAY YET BE NEEDED FOR LOWER JAMES IF WINDS
TREND UPWARD WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SCAS FOR THE RIVERS/SOUND RUN
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUE/TUE NIGHT BEFORE WNW
WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON WED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS. WITH THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW, SEAS WON'T BUILD HIGHER THAN 4-7 FT MONDAY
NIGHT-TUE AM. WAVES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 3-5 FT ON THE CHES BAY. WINDS
TURN W-SW AGAIN WED/WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-658.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-656.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/KMC
NEAR TERM...AC/RMM
SHORT TERM...AC/KMC
LONG TERM...AC/KMC
AVIATION...KMC/RMM
MARINE...MAM
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