138
FXUS61 KAKQ 291056
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
556 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON TODAY BRINGING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO LATE EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITH THIS, A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND
CROSSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN SE
VA/NE NC. THEN WITH THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH QPF TOTALS REMAIN VERY LOW AT
LESS THAN 0.10". SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
FURTHER TO THE SE AND ACCUMULATING RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY.
STRONG MIXING COMBINED WITH 50-60 KT LLJ WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS
TO GUST TO 35-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE AS GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY AND COOLER TUESDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID WEEK.
IN WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS TO SUB 980 MB OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE. THE
POSITION OF THE LOW WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AIRMASS ON TUESDAY
CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NE AND HIGH
TO THE SW TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK, THEN BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE VERY
SATURATED, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME. BEFORE THE
FRONT ARRIVES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S (N) TO LOWER
50S (S) ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE UPPER TEENS (N) TO MID 20S (S). TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES DO INCREASE WITH THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE S/SE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 600 AM EST MONDAY...
CLOUDY SKIES WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AS WAA LIFTS MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE MOST PREDOMINANT WITH IFR CIGS IN
SBY/ORF. PHF/RIC ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MVFR CIGS AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 16-19Z. ECG IS CURRENTLY UNDER MVFR CIGS AND
WILL LIKELY SEE A RISE TO VFR BY 13Z. CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
LATE MON MORNING ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS, IMPROVING TO VFR AS
CLOUDS CLEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A STRONG (50-60 KT) LLJ OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS SUCH, SW LLWS OF AROUND 45
KT IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH 50 KT OF LLWS POSSIBLE
AT SBY. SW WINDS OF 10-13 KT HAVE BEGUN TO GUST TO 20 KT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME W BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 30-35 KT.
OUTLOOK: WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. DRY AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS IS LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH W-NW WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY
AND OCEAN.
- A BRIEF (1-2 HOUR) SURGE OF LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ON THE RIVERS WITH THE INITIAL FROPA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON-LATE EVENING. SMWS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS.
- SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE
GUSTY W-NW WINDS CONTINUE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SE CONUS COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM IS LIFTING ACROSS
THE WATERS. WINDS ARE S-SW AT 15-20 KT, AND WILL INCREASE TO ~20 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY MID MORNING. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES
TODAY AS S-SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT LATER
TODAY. AS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING (SUB 980 MB) LOW PASSES BY WELL TO
OUR N/NW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS. THAT FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN 3-6 PM, AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OUT OF THE W/WNW
FOLLOWING THE FROPA. W/WNW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT, AS POST-FRONTAL CAA
QUICKLY ENHANCES VERTICAL MIXING. 925-850MB WINDS OF 35-45 KT SHOULD
SUPPORT GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN. GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND RUN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE BAY/OCEAN
(AND REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE FOR THE NORTHERN TWO COASTAL
ZONES). KEPT THE SCAS FOR THE RIVERS/SOUND BUT MAY SEE A FEW GALE
GUSTS FROM LATE AFTN-LATE EVENING W/ THE INITIAL FROPA. COULD SEE
THE NEED FOR AN SMW OR TWO (ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER JAMES), BUT ANY
GALE GUSTS HERE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED (1-2 HOURS) SO DIDN'T EXPAND
THE GALE WARNING ATTM.
WIND GUSTS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TUE
AM...BUT FREQUENT 35 KT GUSTS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. THAT IS WHY THE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUE/TUE NIGHT BEFORE WNW
WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON WED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS. WITH THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW, SEAS WON'T BUILD HIGHER THAN 4-7 FT TONIGHT-
TUE AM. WAVES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 3-5 FT ON THE CHES BAY. WINDS TURN W-
SW AGAIN WED/WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCAS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ638.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...AC/KMC
LONG TERM...AC/KMC
AVIATION...KMC/RMM
MARINE...ERI
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