266
FXUS61 KAKQ 291931
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
231 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO LATE EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST NW OF
RICHMOND HEADING SE. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST AND A LINE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING INTO SE VA AND NE NC. RATHER MILD IN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL THANKS TO WAA UNDER A WARM FRONT WITH
LATEST OBS SHOWING THE LOW TO MID 60S AND EVEN AS HIGH AT 70 IN
CURRITUCK. COLD AIR HAS NOT QUITE MADE IT TO THE NW COUNTIES WHERE
TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S. THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SE UNTIL IT COMES TO AN END/MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. STILL NOT FORECASTING MUCH QPF WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES AROUND 0.1" IN THE SE. SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE ENTIRE FA UNDER CLEAR SKIES BY 7-8PM TONIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS BECOME VERY GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS STRONG MIXING AND CAA
KICK IN. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40MPH (UP TO
45MPH ON THE EASTERN SHORE) EXPECTED. WINDS STEADILY DIMINISH EARLY
IN THE NIGHT, BUT REMAINING BREEZY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE UNTIL 10PM TONIGHT. CAA
BRINGS IN CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 20S
INLAND AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE WATER.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY AND COOLER TUESDAY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID WEEK.
MUCH COOLER TUES AS COLD, DRY AIR MOVES IN UNDER AN UL TROUGH THAT
SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT PAST
40F TOMORROW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE SUNNY.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THE UL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. NOT QUITE AS COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S BUT STILL A BIT BREEZY KEEPING WIND CHILLS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY, THEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NW
IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS WED NIGHT INT THE MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS THE N
AND LOW 30S S OF I-64.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURS.
HIGHS ON THURS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO NEAR
50 IN THE FAR SOUTH. THE SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR COMBINED WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 20S WITH THE
TYPICAL COLDER, RURAL SPOTS PERHAPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. THE UL
TROUGH BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NOTE QUITE
AS COLD FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE BETWEEN THE LOW 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH TO THE LOW 50S IN THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND
PUSHING NE OFFSHORE. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD ACROSS THE GLOBAL
MODELS REGARDING LOCATION OF THE LOW AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT,
BUT THE 12Z SUITE KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WILL STICK WITH NBM GUIDANCE FOR NOW, WHICH YIELDS MAINLY CHNC POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. DRYING OUT AGAIN SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1150 AM EST MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS ON THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AHEAD OF IT, SKIES ARE BKN-OVC AND SW WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND
20KT. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE 18Z PERIOD, BUT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES
MUCH. CLEARING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING, THEN REMAINING CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND WILL GUST 30-40KT THIS
EVENING, HIGHEST AT SBY. STILL BREEZY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
BUT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 20-25KT.
OUTLOOK: WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. DRY AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE RIVERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
- SCA'S LIKELY REPLACE GALES OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY, AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS GUSTY W-NW
WINDS CONTINUE.
- WINDS GENERALLY DIMINISH WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THROUGH TONIGHT: SCA ONGOING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, ON A
GUSTY SSW BREEZE. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE COMMON ACROSS THE WATERS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE IN THE LOWER BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE
WATERS AS OF THIS WRITING, AND WILL CROSS OFFSHORE BY AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET. GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT AT 20Z/3PM EST OVER THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND 23Z/6PM OVER ANZ658
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W-NW IN STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION POST-FRONTAL, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS TO 30-40
KT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER
THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. E VA RIVERS AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND
REMAIN IN SCA, BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING, AS THE BEST CAA CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW SMWS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THESE AREAS, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
SCA. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET THIS AFTERNOON IN STRONG SSE SWELL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TO 4-6 FT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE BLOWING OFFSHORE.
WAVES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 3-5 FT ON THE CHES BAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: OFFSHORE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH W-NW WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BACKING TO THE W-SW WED AS
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST TUE AND TUE NIGHT,
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, WHERE GALE WARNINGS (35 KT
GUSTS) LINGER INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY. IN-HOUSE WIND PROBABILITIES FOR
LOW-END SCA (>18 KT) HAVE INCREASED IN THE BAY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING, AS ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS.
CAA IS RATHER WEAK BEHIND THIS FRONT, AND AS SUCH THE DURATION OF
ANY SCA WOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THU AFTN
AND EVENING. WAVES SUBSIDE FROM 2-4 FT TUESDAY TO 2-3 FT TUE NIGHT,
THEN 1-2 FT FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SEAS SUBSIDE FROM 3-5 FT
TOMORROW TO 2-4 FT TUE NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
FRIDAY/THIS WEEKEND: SUB-SCA FLOW BACKS TO THE SSW FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ~10-15 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
IS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND CROSSES S/SE OF THE LOCAL
AREA, BACKING WINDS AROUND TO THE NNW OVER THE WEEKEND. WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW-END PROBABILITIES DURING THIS
PERIOD THAT WILL NEED MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS, AS WELL AS OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...MAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page