706
FXUS61 KAKQ 292352
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
652 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 650 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN SHORE THIS INTO LATE
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
- WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20F ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW SE OF THE
LOCAL AREA WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ARRIVING BEHIND
THE FRONT. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR RAPIDLY WITH THE ONLY CLOUDS
AS OF 640 PM AROUND FAR SE VA/NE NC. EVEN THESE CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. W/WNW WINDS
HAVE OVERPERFORMED INLAND WITH GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH NOTED AT
SEVERAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH 5-10 KT
WINDS INLAND EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
THE CAA APPEARS TO BE A BIT DELAYED WHICH MAY BE WHY THE EASTERN
SHORE HASN'T SEEN AS HIGH GUSTS AS INLAND VA AND NE NC YET. AS
SUCH, WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SHORE AND
SEE IF WINDS DO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN. A FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE HERE. CAA
BRINGS IN CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 20S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS FAR E
VA, NE NC, AND THE EASTERN SHORE. THE PIEDMONT HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOWS LOCALLY
IN THE LOWER 20S. HOWEVER, GIVEN STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE, HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OVERNIGHT,
WITH MIXING LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS ELEVATED ABOVE WHAT MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS. NORFOLK MAY NOT EVEN DROP BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT. THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS IS RICHMOND WHERE TEMPS
COULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S FOR LOWS IF WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
OR DROP INTO THE MID 20S IF WINDS DECOUPLE. IN ANY CASE, WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20F ACROSS THE AREA
BY TUE MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY AND COOLER TUESDAY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID WEEK.
MUCH COOLER TUES AS COLD, DRY AIR MOVES IN UNDER AN UL TROUGH THAT
SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT PAST
40F TOMORROW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE SUNNY.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THE UL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. NOT QUITE AS COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S BUT STILL A BIT BREEZY KEEPING WIND CHILLS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY, THEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NW
IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS WED NIGHT INT THE MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS THE N
AND LOW 30S S OF I-64.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURS.
HIGHS ON THURS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO NEAR
50 IN THE FAR SOUTH. THE SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR COMBINED WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 20S WITH THE
TYPICAL COLDER, RURAL SPOTS PERHAPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. THE UL
TROUGH BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NOTE QUITE
AS COLD FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE BETWEEN THE LOW 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH TO THE LOW 50S IN THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND
PUSHING NE OFFSHORE. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD ACROSS THE GLOBAL
MODELS REGARDING LOCATION OF THE LOW AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT,
BUT THE 12Z SUITE KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WILL STICK WITH NBM GUIDANCE FOR NOW, WHICH YIELDS MAINLY CHNC POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. DRYING OUT AGAIN SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 640 PM EST MONDAY...
CLOUDS CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. W/WNW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THIS EVENING WITH ~20 KT WITH GUST UP TO ~30 KT COMMON ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10 KT
FOR MOST AREAS BY ~6Z TUE. HOWEVER, WINDS COULD REMAIN GUSTY AT
SBY, ORF, AND ECG THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TUE, INCREASING TO 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT FOR MOST AREAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
TUE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE (INCLUDING SBY)
WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE RIVERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
- SCA'S LIKELY REPLACE GALES OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY, AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS GUSTY W-NW
WINDS CONTINUE.
- WINDS GENERALLY DIMINISH WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THROUGH TONIGHT: SCA ONGOING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, ON A
GUSTY SSW BREEZE. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE COMMON ACROSS THE WATERS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE IN THE LOWER BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE
WATERS AS OF THIS WRITING, AND WILL CROSS OFFSHORE BY AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET. GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT AT 20Z/3PM EST OVER THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND 23Z/6PM OVER ANZ658
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W-NW IN STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION POST-FRONTAL, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS TO 30-40
KT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER
THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. E VA RIVERS AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND
REMAIN IN SCA, BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING, AS THE BEST CAA CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW SMWS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THESE AREAS, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
SCA. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET THIS AFTERNOON IN STRONG SSE SWELL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TO 4-6 FT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE BLOWING OFFSHORE.
WAVES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 3-5 FT ON THE CHES BAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: OFFSHORE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH W-NW WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BACKING TO THE W-SW WED AS
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST TUE AND TUE NIGHT,
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, WHERE GALE WARNINGS (35 KT
GUSTS) LINGER INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY. IN-HOUSE WIND PROBABILITIES FOR
LOW-END SCA (>18 KT) HAVE INCREASED IN THE BAY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING, AS ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS.
CAA IS RATHER WEAK BEHIND THIS FRONT, AND AS SUCH THE DURATION OF
ANY SCA WOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THU AFTN
AND EVENING. WAVES SUBSIDE FROM 2-4 FT TUESDAY TO 2-3 FT TUE NIGHT,
THEN 1-2 FT FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SEAS SUBSIDE FROM 3-5 FT
TOMORROW TO 2-4 FT TUE NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
FRIDAY/THIS WEEKEND: SUB-SCA FLOW BACKS TO THE SSW FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ~10-15 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
IS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND CROSSES S/SE OF THE LOCAL
AREA, BACKING WINDS AROUND TO THE NNW OVER THE WEEKEND. WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW-END PROBABILITIES DURING THIS
PERIOD THAT WILL NEED MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS, AS WELL AS OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...AC/RMM
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM
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