898
FXUS61 KAKQ 301730
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1230 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 925 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- COOL, DRY, AND BREEZY TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40F AND WIND CHILLS
STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.
MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW WELL TO OUR SE. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WNW FLOW ALSO
PREVAILS ALOFT WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC AND RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. STILL PRETTY CHILLY OUT THERE WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S AS OF LATEST OBS. MUCH COOLER, DRY,
BREEZY, BUT SUNNY TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH
INLAND AND 25-35 MPH NEAR THE COAST (HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
SHORE). WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S, WIND CHILLS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND BUILDS TOWARD THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AS THE STRONG
LOW (AT THE SFC AND ALOFT) REMAINS OVER QUEBEC/EASTERN CANADA.
CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE MID- UPPER 20S AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
NOT MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
LARGE UPPER THROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
CONTINUED WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ON WED WITH LOWER-MID 40S EXPECTED AS SFC WINDS VEER
TO THE WSW. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND FROM WED NIGHT-THU, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ON WED, WITH
A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WED NIGHT/THU.
HOWEVER, ANY PRECIP FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH, SO DRY WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SMALL
MINORITY OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF ON THU, BUT THIS IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST ATTM. A BIT COOLER ON THU BEHIND THE FRONT (MID 30S-MID
40S), EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF THE VERY COLD AIR WILL STAY IN THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS. THU NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NEAR/OVER THE AREA. UPPER TEENS-
LOWER 20S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA (COLDEST N), WITH MID-
UPPER 20S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 235 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH IT BECOMES A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED. WITH
CONTINUED WNW FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY, DRY WX IS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF
THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF LOW-END RAIN CHANCES (MAINLY S) ON SATURDAY
AS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY TRACKS FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH TO THE CAROLINAS. THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z MODELS HAVE VERY
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, AND FORECAST POPS
FROM THE NBM MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S-NEAR 50F THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S-
LOWER 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z/30 TAF PERIOD. STARTING OUT
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SBY, WHICH IS
UNDER BKN. EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
RIC/SBY, AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW. W WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THEN
SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS TURN TO THE SW TOMORROW AT 10KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 235 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TWO OCEAN
ZONES. WHILE THE REST OF THE WATERS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
- WINDS GENERALLY DIMINISH WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS.
MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUB 980MB LOW OVER NORTHERN MAINE
AND A 1036MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND DRIER AND COLDER AIR ENTERING
THE AREA IS ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT OUT OF THE
NW WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO OCEAN ZONES. THE OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS HAVE LOWERED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE WIDESPREAD GALE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BE REPLACED BY SCA. PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
BAY AND 3 SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES WHERE WINDS ARE NOT REACHING
CRITERIA. THESE SMALL CRAFTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM NOW UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THERE ARE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35KT. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING TO SEE IF A TRANSITION TO
SCA IS NEEDED. SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE BAY AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OCEAN. THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ELEVATED BUT SWITCH TO MORE WNW WITH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
TO 25 KT AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30KT. BY TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ALL SCA THAT ARE IN EFFECT WILL DROP AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKS AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND SWITCH TO MORE SSW WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND AN ISOLATED GUST UPWARDS OF 20 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO LOWER TONIGHT WITH WAVES BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE
BAY AND 3 TO 4FT ACROSS THE OCEAN.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SCA
CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING SCA PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
BAY. LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY HOWEVER TYPICALLY WITH SW
WINDS THEY TEND TO UNDER PERFORM IN THE COOL SEASON DUE TO THE MUCH
COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THE OVERALL NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS COMES THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER
AND DIRER AIR ENTERS THE AREA. FRIDAY/THIS WEEKEND: SUB-SCA FLOW
BACKS TO THE SSW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ~10-15 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT, WAVES 1-
2 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA IS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY,
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
CROSSES S/SE OF THE LOCAL AREA, BACKING WINDS AROUND TO THE NNW OVER
THE WEEKEND. WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW-END
PROBABILITIES DURING THIS PERIOD THAT WILL NEED MONITORING IN THE
COMING DAYS, AS WELL AS OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS NEXT
WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
638-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...AC/ERI
SHORT TERM...AC/ERI
LONG TERM...AC/ERI
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...HET
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