790
FXUS61 KAKQ 301928
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
228 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- LESS WIND OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE FLOW
ALOFT HAS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH ITS
AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A CHILLY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE LOCALLY
BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE STILL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FA. SO FAR, ONLY
ECG HAS HIT 40. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30MPH ARE KEEPING
WIND CHILLS CLOSER TO FREEZING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT IS AT LEAST
SUNNY. OF COURSE THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE IS THE EXCEPTION WHERE
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
A DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NW. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT WILL NOT DROP OUT ENTIRELY. DESPITE LESS
THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABLE
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, UPPER 20S IMMEDIATELY
ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THE MID-ATLANTIC REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE N ON WEDNESDAY. THE UL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL. NOT QUITE AS COLD, BUT STILL ON THE CHILLY
SIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S WITH A BREEZE STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS WED NIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. COULDN'T RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY WITH THE FRONT,
BUT ANY SORT OF PRECIP LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON THURS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE N AND LOW TO MID 40S
ALONG AND S OF I-64. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 20S RETURN THURS NIGHT WITH
SOME OF TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS PERHAPS SEEING THE UPPER TEENS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH IT
BECOMES A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED BY SUNDAY. LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUED NW FLOW. RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY HAVE DECREASED YET AGAIN AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE S. WAS NOT
QUITE READY TO WIPE OUT RAIN CHANCES ENTIRELY, SO MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NE NC SAT. HIGHS FRI-SUN WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR
EACH DAY. FORECASTING HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 IN THE FAR
NORTH TO AROUND 50 IN THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPS COULD MODERATE A BIT
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER GIVEN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z/30 TAF PERIOD. STARTING OUT
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SBY, WHICH IS
UNDER BKN. EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
RIC/SBY, AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW. W WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THEN
SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS TURN TO THE SW TOMORROW AT 10KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 235 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TWO OCEAN
ZONES. WHILE THE REST OF THE WATERS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
- WINDS GENERALLY DIMINISH WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS.
MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUB 980MB LOW OVER NORTHERN MAINE
AND A 1036MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND DRIER AND COLDER AIR ENTERING
THE AREA IS ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT OUT OF THE
NW WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO OCEAN ZONES. THE OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS HAVE LOWERED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE WIDESPREAD GALE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BE REPLACED BY SCA. PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
BAY AND 3 SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES WHERE WINDS ARE NOT REACHING
CRITERIA. THESE SMALL CRAFTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM NOW UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THERE ARE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35KT. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING TO SEE IF A TRANSITION TO
SCA IS NEEDED. SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE BAY AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OCEAN. THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ELEVATED BUT SWITCH TO MORE WNW WITH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
TO 25 KT AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30KT. BY TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ALL SCA THAT ARE IN EFFECT WILL DROP AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKS AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND SWITCH TO MORE SSW WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND AN ISOLATED GUST UPWARDS OF 20 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO LOWER TONIGHT WITH WAVES BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE
BAY AND 3 TO 4FT ACROSS THE OCEAN.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SCA
CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING SCA PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
BAY. LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY HOWEVER TYPICALLY WITH SW
WINDS THEY TEND TO UNDER PERFORM IN THE COOL SEASON DUE TO THE MUCH
COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THE OVERALL NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS COMES THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER
AND DIRER AIR ENTERS THE AREA. FRIDAY/THIS WEEKEND: SUB-SCA FLOW
BACKS TO THE SSW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ~10-15 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT, WAVES 1-
2 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA IS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY,
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
CROSSES S/SE OF THE LOCAL AREA, BACKING WINDS AROUND TO THE NNW OVER
THE WEEKEND. WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW-END
PROBABILITIES DURING THIS PERIOD THAT WILL NEED MONITORING IN THE
COMING DAYS, AS WELL AS OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS NEXT
WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
638-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...HET
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