584
FXUS61 KAKQ 301947
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
247 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- LESS WIND OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE FLOW
ALOFT HAS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH ITS
AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A CHILLY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE LOCALLY
BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE STILL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FA. SO FAR, ONLY
ECG HAS HIT 40. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30MPH ARE KEEPING
WIND CHILLS CLOSER TO FREEZING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT IS AT LEAST
SUNNY. OF COURSE THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE IS THE EXCEPTION WHERE
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
A DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NW. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT WILL NOT DROP OUT ENTIRELY. DESPITE LESS
THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABLE
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, UPPER 20S IMMEDIATELY
ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THE MID-ATLANTIC REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE N ON WEDNESDAY. THE UL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL. NOT QUITE AS COLD, BUT STILL ON THE CHILLY
SIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S WITH A BREEZE STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS WED NIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. COULDN'T RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY WITH THE FRONT,
BUT ANY SORT OF PRECIP LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON THURS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE N AND LOW TO MID 40S
ALONG AND S OF I-64. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 20S RETURN THURS NIGHT WITH
SOME OF TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS PERHAPS SEEING THE UPPER TEENS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH IT
BECOMES A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED BY SUNDAY. LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUED NW FLOW. RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY HAVE DECREASED YET AGAIN AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE S. WAS NOT
QUITE READY TO WIPE OUT RAIN CHANCES ENTIRELY, SO MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NE NC SAT. HIGHS FRI-SUN WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR
EACH DAY. FORECASTING HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 IN THE FAR
NORTH TO AROUND 50 IN THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPS COULD MODERATE A BIT
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER GIVEN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z/30 TAF PERIOD. STARTING OUT
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SBY, WHICH IS
UNDER BKN. EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
RIC/SBY, AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW. W WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THEN
SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS TURN TO THE SW TOMORROW AT 10KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS WESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- ADDITIONAL SCAS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING, AHEAD OF AND BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT.
STRONG (SUB-970 MB) LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NE OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL SW OF THE REGION. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS LEADING TO CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS
OUT OF THE W/WNW, THOUGH THE SPEEDS ARE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN
EARLIER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WILL KEEP THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SUB-SCA FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE WATERS DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE, WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT. WHILE A FEW 20-25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE (PARTICULARLY
ON THE COASTAL WATERS), WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AND/OR EXTENDING
HEADLINES DUE TO <30% PROBS FOR 25 KT WIND GUSTS. SW WINDS THEN
INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-25 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS DEPICT A 35-45 KT LLJ
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DECENTLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVER THE WATERS. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN MEETING
SCA CRITERIA WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES
THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE CAA
REGIME. SCAS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT FAVORS LIGHTER WINDS TO END THE WEEK, LIKELY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO 2-
3 FT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WAVES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY GENERALLY
AVERAGE 1-2 FT, BUT LIKELY WILL INCREASE TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION WILL PREVENT SEAS
FROM INCREASING TOO MUCH, MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS 3-5 FT DURING
THIS TIME, HIGHEST 10+ NM OFFSHORE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
638-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...SW
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