272
FXUS61 KAKQ 070552
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1252 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WARM
CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DRIER AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 830 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY CLOUDY, MILD, AND DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A
WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ALOFT. A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A STARK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPS AS OF 830 PM RANGED FROM
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE FAR N AND EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC, WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT,
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MILD AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ALOFT, A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE E CONUS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE WED INTO THU. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, SW WINDS ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S WED (LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST). GIVEN THE LACK
OF CAA WITH THE COLD FRONT, TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE IN
TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION EVEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO W BEHIND THE FRONT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT, FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE 30S
INLAND AND AROUND 40F ALONG THE COAST. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS MAINLY
N PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE
THU WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST (LOW-MID
50S) WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S POSSIBLE INLAND. CLOUDS BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 240 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
- VERY WARM WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A RETURN
TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALOFT, A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE E CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUN. A TROUGH FINALLY REPLACES THE RIDGE SUN
INTO MON, GRADUALLY WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE, A ONE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY FRI WITH A SECOND AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING BEHIND AND TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT
INTO SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WAA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S N TO LOW-MID 70S S FRI AND SAT. MANY
AREAS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S BOTH DAYS,
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, TEMPS
MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGH TERRITORY WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
NORFOLK (ORF) ON SAT. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR A LOOK AT
DAILY RECORDS.
OUTSIDE OF THE EARLY JANUARY WARMTH, THE WAA AND SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN PLACE FROM FRI THROUGH EARLY
SUN. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME, A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND THE LOWEST CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST. POPS RANGE FROM 35-40% NW TO <15% SE FRI, 75-85% NW TO 30-50%
SE SAT, AND 25-35% SUN MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
SAT. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION, SW WINDS BECOME BREEZY ON SAT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOME W AND REMAIN
BREEZY ON SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE. ANY RAIN
TAPERS OFF SUN MORNING WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE IN
THE DAY INTO SUN NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FROM SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
06Z. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
VFR UNDER SCT CIRRUS AND A SW WIND OF 5-10KT. FOG OBSERVED AT
SBY AROUND 02-03Z HAS DISSIPATED. NO ADDITIONAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO MIXING FROM THE
5-10KT SW WIND, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME W 8-12KT
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH GUSTS TO ~20KT, AND LOCALLY 20-25KT AT SBY. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW 5-10KT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING AND DRY COLD
FRONT. BY TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION WITH THE
WIND BECOMING CALM TO VERY LIGHT.
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOWER CIGS
AND/OR REDUCED VSBY IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. THEN, A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THIS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING LATER SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED S-SW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER FRIDAY
AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, TO 10-15 KT,
AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NW LATER WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAINS SUB-SCA. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED S WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY, WITH MARGINAL SCAS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CRITERIA IS HIGHER SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS REMAIN S-SW DURING THIS TIME, BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED WINDS
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS POST-FRONTAL CAA
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THERE ARE LOW-END PROBABILITIES
FOR >34 KT WNW GUSTS ON THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH OUR
IN-HOUSE PROBS AROUND 30% AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBS HIGHER AT 50-60%.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. REGARDLESS, WINDS DECREASE BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN S AND W OF THE AREA.
SEAS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 3-4 FT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS
INCREASE AGAIN TO 3-5 FT (LOCALLY HIGHER) FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WAVES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AVERAGE 1-2 FT THIS WEEK AND 2-3 FT FOR
THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
1/09 1/10
RIC 73/2008 75/1930
ORF 74/1930 72/1957
SBY 73/1930 69/1930
ECG 77/1937 75/1937
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...KMC/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW
CLIMATE...
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