810
FXUS61 KAKQ 071102
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
602 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING AND DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY MILD
AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT LATER FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DRIER AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY MILD TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE,
AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS TO THE SW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. RATHER MILD FOR EARLY JANUARY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 50S AND A SW WIND OF 5-10 MPH. THE
WEAKENING AND DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, AND DROPS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MILD AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TODAY. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE, TO THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND W AND SW OF THE CHES. BAY UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM S-CENTRAL/SE VA AND NE NC AWAY FROM THE COAST
COULD REACH 70F. MOSTLY CLEAR, COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MILD AND DRY THURSDAY.
- VERY WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR EARLY JANUARY FRIDAY.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING OFFSHORE. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID 50S ALONG THE COAST (POSSIBLY ONLY UPPER 40S FOR THE
MD COAST) WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW, TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
INLAND W AND SW OF THE CHES. BAY. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM
W-E THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/AROUND
40F OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, TO THE MID 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY. A SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL CHC OF SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE, SO THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. REGARDLESS, A VERY MILD AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON RECORDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG
WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS.
- DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE INITIAL TROUGH SHIFTS ENE ACROSS THE LOWER ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENCROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
THE AREA AND PRIMARILY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY MILD FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. A MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY, WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AMPLIFYING, AND THE COLD FRONT REMAINING TO OUR NW. ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE AREA EARLY/MIDDAY SATURDAY, MORE OF A WARM
FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING SCENARIO IS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z/07 GUIDANCE
WITH 80-90% POPS FROM THE PIEDMONT, TO CENTRAL VA, TO THE MD
EASTERN SHORE, TAPERING TO 30-50% POPS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
00Z/07 EPS/GEFS SHOW PW VALUES OF 350% OF NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE
RICHEST MOISTURE DOES NOT DIRECTLY INTERACT WITH THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WHICH WILL BE OFFSET TO OUR
NW. CONTINUED VERY MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 60S N (WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS) TO
THE LOWER 70S S, WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE IN SE VA AND NE NC
AWAY FROM THE COAST. AGAIN, SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS. BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH A SW
WIND GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH, AND POTENTIALLY UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS
FAR SE VA/NE NC.
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT
LIFTS ENE, AND WILL FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, 250-300% OF NORMAL
PW PROGGED BY THE EPS/GEFS AT 00Z SUNDAY RAPIDLY DIMINISH WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE DESPITE SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES FROM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES. 50TH
PERCENTILE QPF FROM THE EPS/GEFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY IS GENERALLY
0.5-0.7" N TO 0.15" OR LESS SE, AND THE EPS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE GEFS. REGARDLESS, 0.5-0.7" N TO 0.25-0.5" FOR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WOULD BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS.
BY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES TREND BACK
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NBM HOLDS ONTO LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT ANY MEMBERS THAT DO HAVE PRECIP
WOULD HAVE HAVE A WARMER SOLUTION, AND THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS DRIER/COOLER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
11Z. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
VFR UNDER FEW-SCT CIRRUS AND A SW WIND OF 5-10KT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME W 8-12KT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTN
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO ~20KT, AND LOCALLY
20-25KT AT SBY ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION MIXES
OUT, AROUND 16-17Z, WITH ANY GUSTINESS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ~21Z
ONCE DIURNAL MIXING CEASES. THE WIND SHIFTS TO NW 5-8KT IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAKENING AND DRY COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTN. BY
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION WITH THE WIND
BECOMING CALM TO VERY LIGHT. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS
POSSIBLE BY 10-12Z THURSDAY.
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME LOWER
CIGS AND/OR REDUCED VSBY IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS A SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
THEN, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THIS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING LATER SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 315 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED S-SW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER FRIDAY
AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION, WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS
MORNING. WAVES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1 FT IN THE BAY (1-2 FT IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) AND SEAS HAVE REACHED 2-4 FT IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS LATER TODAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
WILL TIGHTEN LATE FRIDAY, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MARGINAL
SCAS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS POST-FRONTAL CAA
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THERE ARE LOW-END
PROBABILITIES FOR >34 KT WNW GUSTS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FIRST PUSH OF CAA, WITH
OUR IN-HOUSE PROBS PEAKING AROUND 30%. WITH ANOTHER MORE ROBUST
PUSH OF CAA EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT, >34KT GUSTS IN-HOUSE PROBS
RAMP UP TO BETWEEN 10-30% IN THE BAY AND 20-50% IN THE COASTAL
WATERS (HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN WATERS). WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
REGARDLESS, WINDS DECREASE BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
S AND W OF THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS RELAX. SEAS
INCREASE AGAIN TO 3-5 FT (LOCALLY HIGHER) FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WAVES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AVERAGE 1-2 FT THIS WEEK
AND 2-3 FT FOR THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
1/09 1/10
RIC 73/2008 75/1930
ORF 74/1930 72/1957
SBY 73/1930 69/1930
ECG 77/1937 75/1937
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
1/10
RIC 50/1972
ORF 57/1972
SBY 55/1972
ECG 62/1937
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...NB
CLIMATE...AKQ
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