832
FXUS61 KAKQ 071918
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING AND DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY MILD
AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT LATER FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DRIER AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY MILD TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE,
AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS TO THE SW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. RATHER MILD FOR EARLY JANUARY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 50S AND A SW WIND OF 5-10 MPH. THE
WEAKENING AND DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, AND DROPS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MILD AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TODAY. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE, TO THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND W AND SW OF THE CHES. BAY UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM S-CENTRAL/SE VA AND NE NC AWAY FROM THE COAST
COULD REACH 70F. MOSTLY CLEAR, COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MILD AND DRY THURSDAY.
- VERY WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR EARLY JANUARY FRIDAY.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING OFFSHORE. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID 50S ALONG THE COAST (POSSIBLY ONLY UPPER 40S FOR THE
MD COAST) WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW, TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
INLAND W AND SW OF THE CHES. BAY. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM
W-E THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/AROUND
40F OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, TO THE MID 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY. A SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL CHC OF SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE, SO THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. REGARDLESS, A VERY MILD AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON RECORDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG
WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS.
- DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE INITIAL TROUGH SHIFTS ENE ACROSS THE LOWER ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENCROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
THE AREA AND PRIMARILY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY MILD FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. A MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY, WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AMPLIFYING, AND THE COLD FRONT REMAINING TO OUR NW. ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE AREA EARLY/MIDDAY SATURDAY, MORE OF A WARM
FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING SCENARIO IS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z/07 GUIDANCE
WITH 80-90% POPS FROM THE PIEDMONT, TO CENTRAL VA, TO THE MD
EASTERN SHORE, TAPERING TO 30-50% POPS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
00Z/07 EPS/GEFS SHOW PW VALUES OF 350% OF NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE
RICHEST MOISTURE DOES NOT DIRECTLY INTERACT WITH THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WHICH WILL BE OFFSET TO OUR
NW. CONTINUED VERY MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 60S N (WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS) TO
THE LOWER 70S S, WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE IN SE VA AND NE NC
AWAY FROM THE COAST. AGAIN, SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS. BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH A SW
WIND GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH, AND POTENTIALLY UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS
FAR SE VA/NE NC.
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT
LIFTS ENE, AND WILL FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, 250-300% OF NORMAL
PW PROGGED BY THE EPS/GEFS AT 00Z SUNDAY RAPIDLY DIMINISH WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE DESPITE SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES FROM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES. 50TH
PERCENTILE QPF FROM THE EPS/GEFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY IS GENERALLY
0.5-0.7" N TO 0.15" OR LESS SE, AND THE EPS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE GEFS. REGARDLESS, 0.5-0.7" N TO 0.25-0.5" FOR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WOULD BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS.
BY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES TREND BACK
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NBM HOLDS ONTO LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT ANY MEMBERS THAT DO HAVE PRECIP
WOULD HAVE HAVE A WARMER SOLUTION, AND THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS DRIER/COOLER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY
SKC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY, BUT WIDELY SCATTERED CU AND
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS. THE WIND BECOMES
WNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT, HOWEVER,
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG OR
MIST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME GIVEN
NO DENSE/WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR REDUCED VSBY ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. THEN, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THIS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING LATER SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 215 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED S-SW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER FRIDAY
AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE, WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NW. A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE
WATERS, BUT STILL SUB-SCA, WITH LATEST OBS INDICATING WINDS OF 10-
15KT. BUOY OBS SHOW SEAS AROUND 3FT. THIS FRONT IS ON THE WEAKER
SIDE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAA BEHIND IT. THEREFORE,
NOT EXPECTING A SURGE BEYOND THE BREEZINESS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
WILL TIGHTEN LATE FRIDAY, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MARGINAL SCAS ARE
POSSIBLE STARTING SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS POST-FRONTAL CAA ENSUES. LOCAL WIND PROBS
HAVE SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND REGARDING GUSTS OF 34KT+ AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. NOW SHOWING ~15-20% AND ONLY 20+NM. WITH
ANOTHER MORE ROBUST PUSH OF CAA EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT, >34KT GUSTS
IN-HOUSE PROBS RAMP UP 20-50% IN THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT HAVE
TRENDED DOWN TO JUST ALMOST 0% IN THE BAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. REGARDLESS, WINDS
DECREASE BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN S AND W OF THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT AS WINDS RELAX TONIGHT. SEAS
INCREASE AGAIN TO 3-5 FT (LOCALLY HIGHER) FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WAVES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AVERAGE 1-2 FT THIS WEEK
AND 2- 3 FT FOR THE WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AC/NB
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