508
FXUS61 KAKQ 072359
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
659 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY MILD AND RATHER
HUMID CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DRIER AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 235 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- VERY MILD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CHILLY
TEMPS RETURNING TONIGHT.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LITTLE COLD ADVECTION AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW IN THE FRONT'S WAKE, TEMPS HAVE SURGED WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA. IN FACT, THERE ARE SEVERAL 70 F
READINGS S OF I-64. THESE TEMPS ARE 15-20 DEG F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF THE DAILY RECORDS. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LOCALLY THICKER FAIR WX CUMULUS IN THE PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN NECK REGION. REGARDLESS, A *VERY* NICE EARLY JANUARY
DAY AND SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THIS TIME LAST YEAR WHEN WE
WERE STUCK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S (WITH SOME LOCATIONS
EVEN HAVING SOME SNOW COVER).
SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND GENERALLY IN THE 30S. LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LASTLY,
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT FLOW, AND NEAR-SURFACE SATURATION.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR EARLY JANUARY FRIDAY.
- A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG
WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS.
THE SFC HIGH WILL CENTER JUST OFF THE VA COAST THURSDAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THE TEMPS COMPARED
TO TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 F INLAND AND
LOWER- MID 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE
DUE TO THE FLOW DIRECTION. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING A WARM FRONT FEATURE TO LIFT N THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES AND MS
VALLEY VICINITY. THEREFORE, IT LIKELY WON'T BE AS CHILLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOWS ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S, UNDER A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE COOLEST TEMPS (30S) ARE EXPECTED ON THE
EASTERN SHORE.
THE WARMTH RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE FRIDAY AS A RIDGE FLEXES
NORTHWARD JUST TO OUR E AND THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE S-SW.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO AT LEAST THE 60S FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA, WITH LOWER TO LOCALLY MID 70S PROBABLE IN SE VA AND NE
NC. W/NW OF THE REGION, A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS A STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF FAVORABLE ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIA
REGION, WITH PRECIP LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST ALL THE WAY
INTO PORTIONS OF SE CANADA. A FEW SHOWERS COULD SPILL INTO NORTHERN
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THE LATER AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A PUSH OF OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS IN THE TN/OH
VALLEY, AND THE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE
W. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AND WARM WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON
UP TO 30 MPH AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, RESPECTIVELY.
WHILE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT PWAT VALUES UP TO 350%
OF NORMAL (REFLECTIVE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM), THE MOST OPTIMAL FORCING AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED W AND SW OF OUR AREA. THUS, THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR W OF OUR AREA AS WELL. THE
HIGHEST POPS (AND QPF) THROUGH SATURDAY ARE IN THE PIEDMONT AND
CENTRAL VA, EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN SHORE. THIS DYNAMIC
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE DESPITE SEVERAL
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. 50TH PERCENTILE QPF
FROM THE LATEST EPS/GEFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY IS GENERALLY 0.5-1.0" N
TO 0.25" OR LESS SE. THE 12Z GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY A TENTH OR TWO
HIGHER WITH THE QPF, WITH THE EPS REMAINING A BIT HIGHER THAN
THE GEFS. REGARDLESS, 0.5-1.0" N TO 0.5-0.75" FOR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WOULD BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 235 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER NEAR THE COAST.
- MAINLY DRY AND COOLER (BUT SEASONABLE) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MILD TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY HOLD ON NEAR THE COAST FOR THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY BEFORE COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN SE VA AND
NE NC EARLY SUNDAY. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TO NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIR/SEASONABLE WX. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE BRINGS LOW-END POPS BACK BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 650 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE JUST S OF THE VA-NC BORDER
THIS EVENING, AND THIS WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT OR CALM WIND WILL PREVAIL INLAND TONIGHT,
BUT THE WIND BECOMES NNE ALONG THE COAST AT AROUND 5 KT. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG OR MIST BETWEEN 06-12Z,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS IN ANY OF THE TAFS,
AND NO DENSE/WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SE INLAND, BUT REMAINING FROM THE E-NE AT 5-10 KT CLOSER
TO THE COAST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK:
SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR REDUCED VSBY ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA, WITH A LIGHT SE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THEN, A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THIS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING LATER SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 215 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED S-SW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER FRIDAY
AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE, WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NW. A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE
WATERS, BUT STILL SUB-SCA, WITH LATEST OBS INDICATING WINDS OF 10-
15KT. BUOY OBS SHOW SEAS AROUND 3FT. THIS FRONT IS ON THE WEAKER
SIDE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAA BEHIND IT. THEREFORE,
NOT EXPECTING A SURGE BEYOND THE BREEZINESS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
WILL TIGHTEN LATE FRIDAY, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MARGINAL SCAS ARE
POSSIBLE STARTING SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS POST-FRONTAL CAA ENSUES. LOCAL WIND PROBS
HAVE SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND REGARDING GUSTS OF 34KT+ AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. NOW SHOWING ~15-20% AND ONLY 20+NM. WITH
ANOTHER MORE ROBUST PUSH OF CAA EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT, >34KT GUSTS
IN-HOUSE PROBS RAMP UP 20-50% IN THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT HAVE
TRENDED DOWN TO JUST ALMOST 0% IN THE BAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. REGARDLESS, WINDS
DECREASE BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN S AND W OF THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT AS WINDS RELAX TONIGHT. SEAS
INCREASE AGAIN TO 3-5 FT (LOCALLY HIGHER) FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WAVES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AVERAGE 1-2 FT THIS WEEK
AND 2- 3 FT FOR THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
1/09 1/10
RIC 73/2008 75/1930
ORF 74/1930 72/1957
SBY 73/1930 69/1930
ECG 77/1937 75/1937
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
1/10
RIC 50/1972
ORF 57/1972
SBY 55/1972
ECG 62/1937
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...AC/NB
CLIMATE...
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