761
FXUS61 KAKQ 081723
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1223 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY MILD AND RATHER
HUMID CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DRIER AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- COOLER, BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING,
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK FRONT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT, BRINGING
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
SAME BALLPARK. AT THIS TIME, THERE HAS BEEN NO FOG DEVELOPMENT,
THOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AND JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES, THOUGH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND REACHING 60-65F INLAND. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY, UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW
A WARM FRONT FEATURE TO LIFT NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE AREA BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S-
LOWER 40S TONIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR EARLY JANUARY FRIDAY.
- A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG
WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING FLEXES NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND THE LOCAL AREA
WILL ALSO BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 60S TO 70-75F IN NE NC/SE VA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS. W/NW OF THE REGION, A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS A STRONGER
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF
FAVORABLE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIA REGION, WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF COAST ALL THE WAY INTO PORTIONS OF SE CANADA. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD SPILL INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY THE LATER AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO A PUSH OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES STARTING TO RAMP UP. THOUGH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING PWAT VALUES OF AS HIGH AS 350% ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (REFLECTIVE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM), THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN W/SW OF OUR
AREA, LEADING TO LESSENED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS IS DESPITE
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE RAIN AND PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT
RAINFALL GRADIENT EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH AREAS IN THE
PIEDMONT FORECAST TO RECEIVE 1-1.5" WHILE NE NC AND SE VA ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE 0.50" OR LESS. THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 245 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER NEAR THE COAST.
- MAINLY DRY AND COOLER (BUT SEASONABLE) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MILD TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY HOLD ON FOR THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE LATER AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN SE VA AND NE NC ON SUNDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THE EXTENT OF TIME THE SHOWERS REMAIN
IN THE AREA IS DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER, COOLER AIRMASS
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO NEAR 30F SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING DOMINANT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM
COULD BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY TRENDS IN ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1222 PM EST THURSDAY...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT E/NE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESE OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL, LOWER
CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A SUBTLE
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
OUTLOOK: A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THIS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER
SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A PERIOD OF INCREASED S-SW WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOCAL MARINE
AREA.
- SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS N/NE LESS THAN 10KT. SEAS ARE 2-3FT, WITH
~1FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST TODAY AND NUDGES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL MAINLY BE
E TO NE TODAY AND LESS THAN 10KT, AND THEN BECOME SE 5-10KT TONIGHT.
THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING S 10-
15KT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE WIND SHIFTS TO
SW AND REMAINS 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3FT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
~1FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY TODAY BUILDING TO 1-2FT LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL FRONT THAT NEARS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT LIFTS BACK TO THE N SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
A SW WIND INCREASES TO 10-15KT FOR THE UPPER RIVERS, 15-20KT FOR THE
CHES. BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND CURRITUCK SOUND, AND 20-25KT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE A VERY
LAMINAR FLOW WITH A VERY MILD AIRMASS OVERSPREADING COOL WATER.
THEREFORE, GUSTINESS WILL BE LIMITED. WIND PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 18KT
PEAK AT 50 TO NEAR 100% FOR THE CHES. BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WIND
PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 25KT ARE 30-60% FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR
20NM AND HIGHEST N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5FT S TO 4-
6FT N, WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW, AT
LEAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL MARINE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WIND BECOMING NW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
HOWEVER, A BRIEF STRONGER SURGE IS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGER CAA ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
NW WIND INCREASING TO 15-25KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA, WITH
GUSTS TO ~30KT FOR THE CHES. BAY AND COASTAL ATLANTIC. SEAS SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT SUNDAY WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY AND THEN SEAS BUILD
TO 4-6FT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE LOCAL MARINE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WSW MONDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH A NW WIND OF 10-15KT LATER MONDAY BECOMING SW 10-
15KT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT, WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN
THE CHES. BAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
1/09 1/10
RIC 73/2008 75/1930
ORF 74/1930 72/1957
SBY 73/1930 69/1930
ECG 77/1937 75/1937
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
1/10
RIC 50/1972
ORF 57/1972
SBY 55/1972
ECG 62/1937
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SW
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...SW/NB
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...JKP/NB
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...
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