302
FXUS61 KAKQ 090532
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1232 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. DRIER AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 655 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT, SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
PIEDMONT.
HIGH PRESSURE (~1025 MB) IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MD EASTERN
SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST/CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH VERY
MILD CONDITIONS.
- DRYING OUT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER NEAR THE COAST.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING FLEXES NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SE. FOR
OUR FAR NW COUNTIES, TEMPERATURES LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S AS
THE WARM FRONT WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE LINGERING CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAINS. W/NW OF THE REGION, A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS A STRONGER
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF
FAVORABLE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIA REGION, WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF COAST ALL THE WAY INTO PORTIONS OF SE CANADA. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD SPILL INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY THE LATER AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO A PUSH OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES STARTING TO RAMP UP. THOUGH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING PWAT VALUES OF AS HIGH AS 350% ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (REFLECTIVE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM), THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN W/SW OF OUR
AREA, LEADING TO LESSENED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS IS DESPITE
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE RAIN AND PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT
RAINFALL GRADIENT EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH AREAS IN THE
PIEDMONT FORECAST TO RECEIVE 1-1.5" WHILE NE NC AND SE VA ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE ~0.25" OR LESS. THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPC DOES HAVE THE SW CORNER IN A DAY 3
MARGINAL RISK FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE OFF TO OUR NW.
MILD TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY HOLD ON FOR THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY BEFORE
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, BUT THE EXTENT OF TIME THE SHOWERS
REMAIN IN THE AREA IS DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER, COOLER
AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY (EARLY) RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MAINLY DRY AND COOLER (BUT SEASONABLE) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINANT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY TRENDS IN ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST FRIDAY...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FORECAST FOR LATER THIS MORNING. SOME LOWER
CIGS AND/OR REDUCED VSBY ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SUBTLE
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH A LIGHT SE FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY REDUCTION IN VIS AT BOTH
ECG AND PHF ALREADY TONIGHT, IT HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT AND LIKELY
JUST GROUND FOG AT ECG SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WILL INCLUDE REDUCTION IN VIS AT PHF AS IT HAS BEEN MORE
PERSISTENT. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF ANY BR/FG PERSISTS AT ANY
OF THE TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE AT RIC BY
TOMORROW EVENING, SO HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA BEGINNING AT 21Z, THOUGH
THIS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTER RAIN.
OUTLOOK: A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THIS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 215 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A PERIOD OF INCREASED S-SW WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK
MARGINAL FOR WIND, THOUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA.
- SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY
PROVIDING BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. AN INCREASE OF CLOUD
COVER IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SYSTEM TO THE WEST, AND OUR HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. E/SE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
S/SW DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT AT OR BELOW 10KT.
SEAS OF 2-3FT AND WAVES IN THE BAY AROUND 1FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF MARINE FOG DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WELL, WHICH
COULD LIMIT VISIBILITIES SUBSTANTIALLY. RIGHT NOW, NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO ANYTHING OTHER THAN MENTION IT HERE.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15KT ON THE
RIVERS,
15-20KT FOR THE BAY AND SOUND, AND ~20KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS PROBABILITIES HAVE COME DOWN A BIT MAKING THIS
ROUND MUCH MORE MARGINAL IN TERMS OF ANY WIND-BASED SCAS, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE BAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY (POTENTIALLY WARRANTING SCAS), WITH 3-5FT DOWN SOUTH.
WAVES IN THE BAY WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 2-3FT. EXPECT RAIN TO PASS
THROUGH ON SATURDAY, AND
CAN'T RULE OUT A BATCH CONTAINING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR GUSTIER
WINDS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WITH WINDS TURNING NW. THE STRONGER CAA ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT RAISING WINDS TO 20-25KT FOR MOST WATERS (15-20KT
IN THE RIVERS). GUSTS TO ~30KT LOOK LIKELY FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS, THOUGH PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW 20-25% FOR ANY GALE-FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE OCEAN. AFTER A BRIEF SUBSIDING OF SEAS/WAVES DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY, SEAS WILL BUILT BACK TO 4-5FT WITH WAVES IN THE BAY
OF 3-4FT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SCAS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE
ENTIRE LOCAL MARINE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON
MONDAY AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH A NW WIND OF 10-
15KT, BECOMING MORE SW TUES/WED. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT WITH 1-2FT
WAVES IN THE BAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
1/09 1/10
RIC 73/2008 75/1930
ORF 74/1930 72/1957
SBY 73/1930 69/1930
ECG 77/1937 75/1937
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
1/10
RIC 50/1972
ORF 57/1972
SBY 55/1972
ECG 62/1937
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/RHR
SHORT TERM...AJB/NB
LONG TERM...AJB/NB
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...AJZ/JKP
CLIMATE...
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