596
FXUS61 KAKQ 090727
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. DRIER AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 655 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT, SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
PIEDMONT.
HIGH PRESSURE (~1025 MB) IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MD EASTERN
SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST/CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH VERY
MILD CONDITIONS.
- DRYING OUT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER NEAR THE COAST.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING FLEXES NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SE. FOR
OUR FAR NW COUNTIES, TEMPERATURES LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S AS
THE WARM FRONT WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE LINGERING CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAINS. W/NW OF THE REGION, A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS A STRONGER
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF
FAVORABLE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIA REGION, WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF COAST ALL THE WAY INTO PORTIONS OF SE CANADA. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD SPILL INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY THE LATER AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO A PUSH OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES STARTING TO RAMP UP. THOUGH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING PWAT VALUES OF AS HIGH AS 350% ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (REFLECTIVE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM), THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN W/SW OF OUR
AREA, LEADING TO LESSENED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS IS DESPITE
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE RAIN AND PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT
RAINFALL GRADIENT EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH AREAS IN THE
PIEDMONT FORECAST TO RECEIVE 1-1.5" WHILE NE NC AND SE VA ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE ~0.25" OR LESS. THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPC DOES HAVE THE SW CORNER IN A DAY 3
MARGINAL RISK FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE OFF TO OUR NW.
MILD TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY HOLD ON FOR THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY BEFORE
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, BUT THE EXTENT OF TIME THE SHOWERS
REMAIN IN THE AREA IS DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER, COOLER
AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY (EARLY) RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MAINLY DRY AND COOLER (BUT SEASONABLE) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINANT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY TRENDS IN ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST FRIDAY...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FORECAST FOR LATER THIS MORNING. SOME LOWER
CIGS AND/OR REDUCED VSBY ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SUBTLE
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH A LIGHT SE FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY REDUCTION IN VIS AT BOTH
ECG AND PHF ALREADY TONIGHT, IT HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT AND LIKELY
JUST GROUND FOG AT ECG SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WILL INCLUDE REDUCTION IN VIS AT PHF AS IT HAS BEEN MORE
PERSISTENT. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF ANY BR/FG PERSISTS AT ANY
OF THE TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE AT RIC BY
TOMORROW EVENING, SO HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA BEGINNING AT 21Z, THOUGH
THIS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTER RAIN.
OUTLOOK: A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THIS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 225 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
DEVELOPING SEA FOG LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE LOWER BAY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- A PERIOD OF INCREASED S-SW WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA
CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR WIND, THOUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH CRITERIA.
- SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS AND INCREASINGLY ROUGH SEAS.
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING, AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. E/SE
WINDS THIS MORNING 5-10 KT VEER AROUND TO THE S/SW THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KT. WAVES ~1 FT
BAY/SOUND/RIVERS, SEAS OF 2-3FT THROUGH TONIGHT. A SUBTROPICAL
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS
THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. IN THIS INCREASINGLY LAMINAR S-SW FLOW, DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL
COASTAL WATERS. BUOY OBS REFLECT SST IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR SHORE
AND LOW TO MID 40S FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS IS A CLASSIC SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO, AND CAMS ARE SHOWING INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS ACTUALLY A BETTER CHANCE
FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH COULD LIMIT
VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE ADDED FOG MENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND WILL WORD VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 1-3SM FOR NOW, BUT THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THAT MEET OR EXCEED MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND: GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. WINDS BACK
TO THE E-NE OVER NORTHERN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME HUNG
UP THERE, WITH THE SOUTHERN WATERS REMAINING ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR, AS SSW WINDS PERSISTING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE OVER NORTHERN WATERS AND S-SW
LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
THE FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER BACK AROUND TO THE SSW, INCREASING TO
10-15KT ON THE RIVERS, 15-20KT FOR THE BAY AND SOUND, AND ~20KT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW FOR SCA
POTENTIAL, AGAIN WITH THE VERY MILD AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
CHILLY LOCAL WATERS. THAT SAID, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BRIEF SCA LEVEL WINDS OVER THE LOWER JAMES AND THE LOWER BAY
SATURDAY EVENING, AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RETREATING
FRONT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. E-NE WIND WAVES WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 4-6FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AGAIN
WITH SOME SHORT-LIVED SCAS POSSIBLE.
THE TRAILING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY CROSS THE
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS TURNING NW POST-FRONTAL.
THE STRONGER CAA WILL BE SLOW IN COMING, WITH WINDS BRIEFLY
DIMINISHING SUNDAY MORNING. SURGE FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, RAISING WINDS
TO 20-25KT FOR MOST WATERS, WITH GUSTS TO ~30KT LOOK LIKELY FOR
THE LOWER BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SCA IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER A BRIEF SUBSIDING OF SEAS/WAVES DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY, SEAS WILL BUILT BACK TO 4-5FT WITH WAVES IN THE
BAY OF 3-4FT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY, BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
WINDS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY, WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON NW
WINDS 10-15 KT FORECAST, BECOMING MORE S-SW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN PRE-FRONTAL RETURN FLOW. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT
WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER
THU/THU NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES EVENTUALLY BECOMING
POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
1/09 1/10
RIC 73/2008 75/1930
ORF 74/1930 72/1957
SBY 73/1930 69/1930
ECG 77/1937 75/1937
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
1/10
RIC 50/1972
ORF 57/1972
SBY 55/1972
ECG 62/1937
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/RHR
SHORT TERM...AJB/NB
LONG TERM...AJB/NB
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...MAM/JKP
CLIMATE...
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