663
FXUS61 KAKQ 091859
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DRIER AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA
BY MID TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND MILD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARRIVE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS AFTERNOON, A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA (NOW DRAPED FROM THE EASTERN SHORE OVER TO CENTRAL VA).
TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. NORFOLK MAY APPROACH ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY (74) WITH
THE 1 PM OBSERVATION ALREADY UP TO 70 (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS). FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, A SHALLOW "WEDGE" OF COOLER AIR
LINGERS WITH PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH, ALLOWING FOR THE SHALLOW
WEDGE TO CONTINUE TO ERODE. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW.
FOR TONIGHT, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT WITH
MODERATE (TO LOCALLY HEAVY) OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA AS DEEPER
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST
QPF TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA
WHERE UP TO 0.50" IS POSSIBLE. FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF RAIN, WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. WITH THE AREA BEING ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST, MAKING FOR A VERY MILD NIGHT FOR EARLY JANUARY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 241 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG
WITH MILD CONDITIONS.
- DRYING OUT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER NEAR THE COAST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST
OF THE LOCAL AREA LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING PWAT VALUES OF AS HIGH AS 350% ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR (REFLECTIVE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM),
THOUGH THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN W/SW OF OUR AREA. THERE IS A
LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE, WITH SOME GUIDANCE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THIS RAIN SHIELD WILL BE SLOW MOVING NATURE, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED BENEFICIAL RAIN TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF SE VA AND NE NC WILL LIKELY REMAIN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE PIEDMONT BEING WEDGED
IN AND SEEING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH. DUE
TO THIS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT RAINFALL GRADIENT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT FORECAST TO
RECEIVE 1-1.5" WHILE NE NC AND SE VA ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE 0.50"
OR LESS. THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPC HAS
PLACED THE FAR SW CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY, THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. OVERALL, A FEW STRONG GUSTS
WITHIN ANY STRONGER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE.
THE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY HOLD ON FOR THE FIRST
PART OF SUNDAY BEFORE COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE
LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL NOT FOLLOW THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE AND WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN SE VA AND NE NC ON SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE EXTENT OF TIME THE SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE AREA IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER, COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F
SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE
REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 241 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MAINLY DRY AND COOLER (BUT SEASONABLE) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINANT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST THIS FAR
OUT. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP BY MID-
WEEK, BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR FORECAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY TRENDS
IN THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EST FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TO START OFF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON (~4000 FEET) AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER AT RIC LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING, BUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNSET.
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DEGRADE TONIGHT AS A COMBINATION OF LOW
STRATUS (IFR TO LIFR), RAIN SHOWERS (HIGHEST CHANCES N/NW), AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VSBYS/FOG TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SE (LOCALLY DENSE
AT TIMES) WITH MVFR VSBYS FURTHER NW DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS.
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS (HEAVY AT TIMES)
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY WITH IFR CIGS LINGERING AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE (ECG). WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND SW ACROSS THE SE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 225 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
DEVELOPING SEA FOG LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE LOWER BAY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- A PERIOD OF INCREASED S-SW WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA
CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR WIND, THOUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH CRITERIA.
- SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS AND INCREASINGLY ROUGH SEAS.
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING, AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. E/SE
WINDS THIS MORNING 5-10 KT VEER AROUND TO THE S/SW THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KT. WAVES ~1 FT
BAY/SOUND/RIVERS, SEAS OF 2-3FT THROUGH TONIGHT. A SUBTROPICAL
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS
THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. IN THIS INCREASINGLY LAMINAR S-SW FLOW, DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL
COASTAL WATERS. BUOY OBS REFLECT SST IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR SHORE
AND LOW TO MID 40S FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS IS A CLASSIC SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO, AND CAMS ARE SHOWING INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS ACTUALLY A BETTER CHANCE
FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH COULD LIMIT
VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE ADDED FOG MENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND WILL WORD VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 1-3SM FOR NOW, BUT THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THAT MEET OR EXCEED MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND: GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. WINDS BACK
TO THE E-NE OVER NORTHERN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME HUNG
UP THERE, WITH THE SOUTHERN WATERS REMAINING ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR, AS SSW WINDS PERSISTING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE OVER NORTHERN WATERS AND S-SW
LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
THE FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER BACK AROUND TO THE SSW, INCREASING TO
10-15KT ON THE RIVERS, 15-20KT FOR THE BAY AND SOUND, AND ~20KT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW FOR SCA
POTENTIAL, AGAIN WITH THE VERY MILD AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
CHILLY LOCAL WATERS. THAT SAID, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BRIEF SCA LEVEL WINDS OVER THE LOWER JAMES AND THE LOWER BAY
SATURDAY EVENING, AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RETREATING
FRONT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. E-NE WIND WAVES WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 4-6FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AGAIN
WITH SOME SHORT-LIVED SCAS POSSIBLE.
THE TRAILING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY CROSS THE
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS TURNING NW POST-FRONTAL.
THE STRONGER CAA WILL BE SLOW IN COMING, WITH WINDS BRIEFLY
DIMINISHING SUNDAY MORNING. SURGE FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, RAISING WINDS
TO 20-25KT FOR MOST WATERS, WITH GUSTS TO ~30KT LOOK LIKELY FOR
THE LOWER BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SCA IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER A BRIEF SUBSIDING OF SEAS/WAVES DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY, SEAS WILL BUILT BACK TO 4-5FT WITH WAVES IN THE
BAY OF 3-4FT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY, BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
WINDS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY, WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON NW
WINDS 10-15 KT FORECAST, BECOMING MORE S-SW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN PRE-FRONTAL RETURN FLOW. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT
WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER
THU/THU NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES EVENTUALLY BECOMING
POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
1/09 1/10
RIC 73/2008 75/1930
ORF 74/1930 72/1957
SBY 73/1930 69/1930
ECG 77/1937 75/1937
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
1/10
RIC 50/1972
ORF 57/1972
SBY 55/1972
ECG 62/1937
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/NB
LONG TERM...AJB/NB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...MAM/JKP
CLIMATE...
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