079
FXUS61 KAKQ 092335
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
635 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DRIER AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA
BY MID TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND MILD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARRIVE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS AFTERNOON, A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA (NOW DRAPED FROM THE EASTERN SHORE OVER TO CENTRAL VA).
TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. NORFOLK MAY APPROACH ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY (74) WITH
THE 1 PM OBSERVATION ALREADY UP TO 70 (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS). FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, A SHALLOW "WEDGE" OF COOLER AIR
LINGERS WITH PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH, ALLOWING FOR THE SHALLOW
WEDGE TO CONTINUE TO ERODE. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW.
FOR TONIGHT, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT WITH
MODERATE (TO LOCALLY HEAVY) OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA AS DEEPER
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST
QPF TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA
WHERE UP TO 0.50" IS POSSIBLE. FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF RAIN, WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. WITH THE AREA BEING ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST, MAKING FOR A VERY MILD NIGHT FOR EARLY JANUARY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD, BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE
AREA.
- DRYING OUT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST
OF THE LOCAL AREA LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING PWAT VALUES OF AS HIGH AS 350% ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR (REFLECTIVE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM),
THOUGH THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN W/SW OF OUR AREA. THIS RAIN
SHIELD WILL BE SLOW MOVING IN NATURE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
BENEFICIAL RAIN TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF SE
VA AND NE NC WILL LIKELY REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE PIEDMONT BEING WEDGED IN AND SEEING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE MUCH
LESS RAINFALL THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THIS, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A DECENT RAINFALL GRADIENT EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA, WITH AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT FORECAST TO RECEIVE 1-1.5" (LOCALLY
HIGHER) WHILE NE NC AND SE VA ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE 0.50" OR LESS.
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPC REMOVED THE PREVIOUS
MARGINAL RISK THAT WAS ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. STILL, COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY SATURDAY, WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA POTENTIALLY
SEEING FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE SOME POTENTIAL WARMING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
NOW, HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NW TO THE LOW-MID 70S
ACROSS THE FAR S-SE.
THE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY HOLD ON FOR THE FIRST
PART OF SUNDAY BEFORE COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE
LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL NOT FOLLOW THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE AND WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE UPPER LOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION,
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF, ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW (GRAUPEL?) SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F
SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MAINLY DRY AND COOLER (BUT SEASONABLE) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINANT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST THIS FAR
OUT. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP BY MID-
WEEK, BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR FORECAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY TRENDS
IN THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 630 PM EST FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TO START OFF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING
(~4000 FEET) AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS RIC
AND SBY. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DEGRADE TONIGHT AS A COMBINATION OF
LOW STRATUS (IFR TO LIFR), RAIN SHOWERS (HIGHEST CHANCES N/NW),
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
IFR VSBYS/FOG TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SE (LOCALLY
DENSE AT TIMES) WITH MVFR VSBYS FURTHER NW DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS.
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS (HEAVY AT TIMES)
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY WITH IFR CIGS LINGERING AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE (ECG). WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND SW ACROSS THE SE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AREAS OF DENSE
SEA FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE LOWER
CHES. BAY THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHES. BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND ALL COASTAL WATERS
FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH NW WINDS AND INCREASINGLY ROUGH
SEAS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WATERS BY
OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT WITH
WAVES AROUND 1 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE WARM AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
CAUSING AREAS OF MARINE FOG TO DEVELOP AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FOG
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
LIKELY LINGER UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET AND WOULD BE
ISSUED ACCORDINGLY.
THEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FIRST FRONT WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE FIRST,
BECOMING HUNG UP AND DIVIDING THE LOCAL WATERS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS
(INCLUDING THE CURRITUCK SOUND) AND MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM AIRMASS WITH SSW WINDS AT 10-15 KT (WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN
THE COASTAL WATERS) AND THE NORTHERN WATERS IN 10-15 KT E-NE WINDS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWARD SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NOW WELL OFFSHORE HIGH AND LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TIGHTENS, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE.
WINDS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL BECOME SSW, INCREASING TO 15-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT (WINDS MAY BE LOWER IN THE NORTHERN MIDDLE
BAY DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT). SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT TO 4-6 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST LOCAL WATERS WITH THE CHES. BAY
AND CURRITUCK SOUND STARTING AT 21Z (4PM) SATURDAY WITH THE COASTAL
WATERS BEGINNING AT 00Z SUNDAY (7PM SATURDAY) THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SCA IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE WINDS FOR THE BAY, LOWER
JAMES, AND SOUND AND THE INCREASING SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE TRAILING, SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT THE CAA WILL BE SLOW TO REACH THE AREA, LIKELY ALLOWING
A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AS THE CAA FILTERS
IN. THE SURGE WILL RAISE NW WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN
THE BAY AND 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE INCREASED THE PROBS
OF GUSTS TO 34 KT, NOW WITH GALE FORCED GUSTS AROUND 40-60% IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES, BUT
HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW AS IT'S STILL A FEW PERIODS AWAY AND LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, WAVES AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, PEAKING AROUND 3-4 FT IN THE BAY AND 4-7 FT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH NW
WINDS 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
1/09 1/10
RIC 73/2008 75/1930
ORF 74/1930 72/1957
SBY 73/1930 69/1930
ECG 77/1937 75/1937
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
1/10
RIC 50/1972
ORF 57/1972
SBY 55/1972
ECG 62/1937
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/NB
LONG TERM...AJB/NB
AVIATION...AJB/HET
MARINE...KMC
CLIMATE...
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