872
FXUS61 KAKQ 100737
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
237 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. DRIER AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY MID TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 237 AM EST SATURDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD, BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE
AREA.
- MILD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, THOUGH THE PIEDMONT
COULD SEE MUCH LOWER TEMPS THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
KAKQ IS DETECTING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
THOUGH THEY HAVE PRODUCED MEAGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LAND-BASED OBS
ARE SHOWING SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES WITHIN THESE SHOWERS, BUT
ARE NOT DETECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG AS WAS INITIALLY EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY RAINFALL REMAIN
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3-5 DEGREES WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY MILD FOR JANUARY, WITH MOST
THE LOCAL AREA MEASURING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS
IS THANKS TO THE WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY
PULLING IN THIS MILD AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING
PWAT VALUES OF AS HIGH AS 350% ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(REFLECTIVE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM), THOUGH
THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN W/SW OF OUR AREA. THIS RAIN SHIELD WILL
BE SLOW MOVING NATURE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED BENEFICIAL
RAIN TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. PORTIONS OF SE VA AND NE NC WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
PIEDMONT BEING WEDGED IN AND SEEING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AREAS
IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN
AREAS TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THIS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT
RAINFALL GRADIENT EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH AREAS IN THE
PIEDMONT FORECAST TO RECEIVE 1-1.5" WHILE NE NC AND SE VA ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE 0.50" OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN TONIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT,
THERE WILL BE A DECENT RANGE OF LOW TEMPERATURES. THE PIEDMONT AND
EASTERN SHORE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 40S, WHILE
SE VA AND NE NC WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 237 AM EST SATURDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY.
THE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY HOLD ON FOR THE FIRST
PART OF SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN SE VA AND NE NC) BEFORE COLD ADVECTION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE AND
WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION, CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF,
ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW (POSSIBLY SOME GRAUPEL MIXED IN) SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW, HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HONING IN ON THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR AREA, INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE, FOR THE LOCATION OF
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, BUT HAVE DECIDED TO PUT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN 40S ON MONDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO NOT DECOUPLE SO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
THAT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ON MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 237 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MAINLY DRY AND COOLER (BUT SEASONABLE) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY MID-LATE
WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN
ACROSS THE SE BY MID-LATE WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY MID-LATE
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP,
BUT THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR FORECAST. WITH THE MANY POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DEPICTED, HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH
RAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHOWING A TRANSITION TO A RAIN-
SNOW MIX BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH EACH FORECAST CYCLE AS
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE COMING WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ANY TRENDS IN THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM AND ADJUST THE FORECAST
AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1237 AM EST SATURDAY...
EVEN WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA, ALL TERMINALS REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL START
TO DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE FOG. BOTH VIS AND CIGS WILL DROP TO
MVFR, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VIS ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY FOG. BY
DAYBREAK, RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY, SO ANY PASSING SHOWER HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY DEGRADED CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS.
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR FOR MOST TERMINALS DURING THE DAY
TODAY, THOUGH ECG MAY SQUEEZE BY WITH LOW-END MVFR CIGS AS RAIN WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT TERMINAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO PICK
UP IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. DEGRADED
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AREAS OF DENSE
SEA FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE LOWER
CHES. BAY THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHES. BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND ALL COASTAL WATERS
FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH NW WINDS AND INCREASINGLY ROUGH
SEAS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WATERS BY
OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT WITH
WAVES AROUND 1 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE WARM AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
CAUSING AREAS OF MARINE FOG TO DEVELOP AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FOG
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
LIKELY LINGER UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET AND WOULD BE
ISSUED ACCORDINGLY.
THEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FIRST FRONT WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE FIRST,
BECOMING HUNG UP AND DIVIDING THE LOCAL WATERS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS
(INCLUDING THE CURRITUCK SOUND) AND MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM AIRMASS WITH SSW WINDS AT 10-15 KT (WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN
THE COASTAL WATERS) AND THE NORTHERN WATERS IN 10-15 KT E-NE WINDS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWARD SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NOW WELL OFFSHORE HIGH AND LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TIGHTENS, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE.
WINDS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL BECOME SSW, INCREASING TO 15-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT (WINDS MAY BE LOWER IN THE NORTHERN MIDDLE
BAY DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT). SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT TO 4-6 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST LOCAL WATERS WITH THE CHES. BAY
AND CURRITUCK SOUND STARTING AT 21Z (4PM) SATURDAY WITH THE COASTAL
WATERS BEGINNING AT 00Z SUNDAY (7PM SATURDAY) THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SCA IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE WINDS FOR THE BAY, LOWER
JAMES, AND SOUND AND THE INCREASING SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE TRAILING, SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT THE CAA WILL BE SLOW TO REACH THE AREA, LIKELY ALLOWING
A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AS THE CAA FILTERS
IN. THE SURGE WILL RAISE NW WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN
THE BAY AND 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE INCREASED THE PROBS
OF GUSTS TO 34 KT, NOW WITH GALE FORCED GUSTS AROUND 40-60% IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES, BUT
HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW AS IT'S STILL A FEW PERIODS AWAY AND LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, WAVES AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, PEAKING AROUND 3-4 FT IN THE BAY AND 4-7 FT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH NW
WINDS 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
1/09 1/10
RIC 73/2008 75/1930
ORF 74/1930 72/1957
SBY 73/1930 69/1930
ECG 77/1937 75/1937
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
1/10
RIC 50/1972
ORF 57/1972
SBY 55/1972
ECG 62/1937
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/NB
NEAR TERM...AJB/NB
SHORT TERM...AJB/NB
LONG TERM...AJB/NB
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...KMC
CLIMATE...
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