104
FXUS61 KAKQ 101042
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
542 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. DRIER AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY MID TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 237 AM EST SATURDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD, BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE
AREA.
- MILD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, THOUGH THE PIEDMONT
COULD SEE MUCH LOWER TEMPS THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
KAKQ IS DETECTING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
THOUGH THEY HAVE PRODUCED MEAGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LAND-BASED OBS
ARE SHOWING SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES WITHIN THESE SHOWERS, BUT
ARE NOT DETECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG AS WAS INITIALLY EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY RAINFALL REMAIN
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3-5 DEGREES WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY MILD FOR JANUARY, WITH MOST
THE LOCAL AREA MEASURING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS
IS THANKS TO THE WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY
PULLING IN THIS MILD AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING
PWAT VALUES OF AS HIGH AS 350% ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(REFLECTIVE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM), THOUGH
THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN W/SW OF OUR AREA. THIS RAIN SHIELD WILL
BE SLOW MOVING NATURE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED BENEFICIAL
RAIN TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. PORTIONS OF SE VA AND NE NC WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
PIEDMONT BEING WEDGED IN AND SEEING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AREAS
IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN
AREAS TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THIS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT
RAINFALL GRADIENT EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH AREAS IN THE
PIEDMONT FORECAST TO RECEIVE 1-1.5" WHILE NE NC AND SE VA ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE 0.50" OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN TONIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT,
THERE WILL BE A DECENT RANGE OF LOW TEMPERATURES. THE PIEDMONT AND
EASTERN SHORE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 40S, WHILE
SE VA AND NE NC WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 237 AM EST SATURDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY.
THE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY HOLD ON FOR THE FIRST
PART OF SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN SE VA AND NE NC) BEFORE COLD ADVECTION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE AND
WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION, CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF,
ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW (POSSIBLY SOME GRAUPEL MIXED IN) SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW, HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HONING IN ON THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR AREA, INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE, FOR THE LOCATION OF
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, BUT HAVE DECIDED TO PUT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN 40S ON MONDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO NOT DECOUPLE SO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
THAT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ON MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 237 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MAINLY DRY AND COOLER (BUT SEASONABLE) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY MID-LATE
WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN
ACROSS THE SE BY MID-LATE WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY MID-LATE
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP,
BUT THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR FORECAST. WITH THE MANY POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DEPICTED, HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH
RAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHOWING A TRANSITION TO A RAIN-
SNOW MIX BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH EACH FORECAST CYCLE AS
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE COMING WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ANY TRENDS IN THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM AND ADJUST THE FORECAST
AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 542 AM EST SATURDAY...
RAIN HAS STARTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY, WHICH HAS LED TO NUMEROUS
TERMINALS SEEING RAPIDLY DEGRADING CONDITIONS. ORF AND ECG HAVE
MANAGED TO STAY VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS
ARE OBSERVING DECREASED VIS AND CIGS WITHIN POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR FOR MOST TERMINALS DURING
THE DAY TODAY (POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO LIFR), THOUGH ECG (AND
POTENTIALLY ORF) MAY SQUEEZE BY WITH LOW-END MVFR CIGS AS RAIN WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
THUNDER IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO PICK
UP IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. DEGRADED
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LLWS OF AROUND 40-45 KTS IS
ALSO LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS ALONG THE FRONT, SO THAT HAS BEEN
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AREAS OF SEA FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
LOWER CHES. BAY THIS MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY, LOWER
JAMES RIVER, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH NW
WINDS AND INCREASINGLY ROUGH SEAS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED EARLY THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS OF THIS WRITING, WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BECOMING
HUNG UP NORTH OF NEW PT COMFORT TO CHINCOTEAGUE. AS DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING TO NOTE SOME
PATCHY SEA FOG DOWN NEAR HATTERAS, AS TD APPROACHES THE TEMPS OF THE
COOL COASTAL WATERS. CAMS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEA
FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR REACHING MARINE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IS QUITE
LOW. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE CWF FOR NOW.
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS BACK TO BECOME ENE ~10 KT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, WITH WINDS
REMAINING SSW 10-15KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WHICH REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT LATER TODAY, THE FRONT WILL BE DRAWN BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, VEERING WINDS AROUND TO THE SSW ALL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. THE BUILDING E/NE WIND WAVE WILL ALSO PUSH SEAS
UP TO ~4-6 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY AND
CURRITUCK SOUND (AND NOW BOTH THE UPPER AND LOWER JAMES RIVER), AS
WELL AS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: THE TRAILING, SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH CAA LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT BY
6-8 HOURS, EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH, WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
INCREASING AS THE CAA FILTERS INTO THE REGION. 00Z/10 MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S RUNS, AND ALONG WITH LOCAL WIND PROBS
HAVE INCREASED THE PROBS OF GUSTS TO 34 KT OVER A 3-6 HR PERIOD,
WITH 925-850 MB WINDS AVERAGING 35-40 KT SUNDAY EVENING. IN
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.
WILL MONITOR THE CHES BAY FOR GALE POTENTIAL, BUT AT THIS TIME,
THOUGHT IS SURGE WILL BE BRIEF ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE BEST HANDLED
WITH SMW. WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES AS WE GET
CLOSER. ADDITIONALLY, WAVES AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, PEAKING AROUND 3-4 FT IN THE BAY AND 4-7 FT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
MONDAY-THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH NW WINDS ~10-15 KT
MONDAY BACKING TO THE W-SW TUE/WED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE
IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED OVER THE CHES BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WAVES 1-2 FT, SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT, BUT
BUILD BACK TO 3-5 FT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES POSSIBLE LATE THU/FRI.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
1/09 1/10
RIC 73/2008 75/1930
ORF *74/1930 72/1957
SBY 73/1930 69/1930
ECG 77/1937 75/1937
* RECORD HIGH FOR DATE TIED YESTERDAY AT ORF
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
1/10
RIC 50/1972
ORF 57/1972
SBY 55/1972
ECG 62/1937
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/NB
NEAR TERM...AJB/NB
SHORT TERM...AJB/NB
LONG TERM...AJB/NB
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...
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