803
FXUS61 KAKQ 102009
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
309 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. DRIER AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE MID
TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED (A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS POSSIBLE) TONIGHT,
REMAINING WARM.
- DRYING OUT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY REDEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTN, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES A SFC WARM FRONT BISECTING THE
CWA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VA ENE TO THE MIDDLE PENINSULA.
TEMPERATURES SHOW A LARGE GRADIENT, RANGING FROM THE 70S IN SE
VA AND NE NC WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND AREAS N/NW OF RICHMOND.
RAIN HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD ALONG AND TO THE N/NW OF THE BOUNDARY,
WITH LOCALLY >2" OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF METRO RIC OVER THE
PAST 6-12 HRS (WITH UP TO 1.50" IN ABOUT 3 HRS BETWEEN
11AM-2PM). CURRENTLY STILL HAVE A FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT TO
COVER MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA, BUT
THE RAINFALL RATES ARE GENERALLY DIMINISHING AS THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTS MORE TO THE NORTH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
NE FROM THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
06Z/1 AM. AS THIS OCCURS, THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE CWA (PERHAPS MINUS THE FAR NW). TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN
AREAS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE 50S AND 60S, WHILE
REMAINING WARM FARTHER SOUTH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN
WEAK (SFC BASED CAPE ONLY 250-500 J/KG AT MOST), BUT WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS INCLUDED ACROSS THE SE 2/3 OF THE CWA
LATER IN THE EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY AM HRS SUNDAY
IN THE SE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY
BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. EXPECT SOME LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG THE COAST, AS AREAS
FARTHER INLAND SEE CLEARING SKIES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND
OFFSHORE SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD WITH BKN
CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 18-00Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NE 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS SOMEWHAT
MORE MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE DGZ. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME COLD
ENOUGH ALOFT AS SUNSET APPROACHES TO POTENTIALLY SEE A RA/SN MIX
OVER THE NORTHERN NECK AND MD EASTERN SHORE, THOUGH SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 55-60F SE TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S N, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY STEADY OR FALLING DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTN (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH). IT WILL ALSO BECOME
BREEZY WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 237 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN 40S ON MONDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO NOT DECOUPLE SO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
THAT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ON MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 237 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MAINLY DRY AND COOLER (BUT SEASONABLE) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY MID-LATE
WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN
ACROSS THE SE BY MID-LATE WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY MID-LATE
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP,
BUT THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR FORECAST. WITH THE MANY POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DEPICTED, HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH
RAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHOWING A TRANSITION TO A RAIN-
SNOW MIX BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH EACH FORECAST CYCLE AS
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE COMING WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ANY TRENDS IN THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM AND ADJUST THE FORECAST
AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST SATURDAY...
RAIN AND IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AT RIC/SBY, WHILE IT
IS MAINLY DRY AT PHF/ORF/ECG. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT AT RIC/SBY
FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING, BUT THEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW, SHOWERS REDEVELOP
(WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE). CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER. SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15-25 KT OVERNIGHT
SHIFT TO THE NW BETWEEN 06-12Z. LLWS OF AROUND 40-45 KTS IS
ALSO LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS ALONG THE FRONT, SO THAT HAS BEEN
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
(BEST CHC AT SBY). DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AREAS OF SEA FOG LINGER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FOR THE UPPER
MIDDLE BAY, RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER, AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY, JAMES
RIVER, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NW GALE FORCED WINDS.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH A WEAK LOW FORMING OVER THE FRONT CAUSING IT TO STALL.
THE STRONGER ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, PUSHING EASTWARD. WITH THIS STALLED FRONT, DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S OVER THE COOL SEAS, WHICH HAVE
ALLOWED MARINE DENSE FOG TO FORM. THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS HAS SEEN
MOST OF THE FOG DISSIPATE, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN,
WHILE THE NORTHERN WATERS, INCLUDING THE MIDDLE BAY AND RAPPAHANNOCK
RIVER, CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG. HAVE CONTINUED THE MARINE
DENSE FOG FOR THE MIDDLE BAY AND RAPP. RIVER UNTIL 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 PM
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, ALLOWING THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE BAY AND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
THE FRONT MOVED TO THE NORTH. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, WAVES AND
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 2-3 FT IN THE CHES. BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF COASTAL WATERS (EXCLUDING THE YORK AND RAPPAHANNOCK
RIVERS) BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
THEN, A TRAILING, SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH CAA LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT BY 6-8 HOURS,
EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING WNW
WINDS AND SEAS. LOCAL WIND PROBS AS WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO 34+ KT FOR A 3-6 HR PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STRONG MIXING OF ~50 KT 925 MB WINDS. WITH
THE HIGH CONFIDENCE, THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING FOR THE SAME ZONES AND TIMEFRAME. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MORE
MARGINAL IN THE CHES. BAY WITH WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT,
SO HAVE LEFT THE BAY OUT OF THE WARNING. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
BRIEF GUSTS ABOVE 34 KT IN THE BAY, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THESE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, SO WILL HANDLE WITH SMWS IF NEEDED. WILL NEED
SUBSEQUENT SCA FOR THE REMAINING WATERS, AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES
EXPIRE. ADDITIONALLY, WAVES AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, PEAKING AROUND 3-4 FT IN THE BAY AND 4-7 FT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH MOSTLY SW WINDS. ANOTHER SERIES
OF FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MID WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW A
PERIOD OF POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SW WINDS AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD
BACK TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY (1/10):
* RIC: 75/1930 (UNLIKELY)
* ORF: 72/1957 (WILL LIKELY SET A NEW RECORD).
* SBY: 69/1930 (UNLIKELY)
* ECG: 75/1937 (POSSIBLE)
* RECORD HIGH FOR DATE TIED YESTERDAY 1/9 AT ORF
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY (1/10):
* RIC 50/1972 (59 THROUGH 2 PM THIS AFTN)
* ORF 57/1972 (58 THROUGH 2 PM THIS AFTN)
(SBY AND ECG WILL NOT SET RECORD HIGH MINS TODAY)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
635.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ637.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...AJB/NB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...KMC/MAM
CLIMATE...LKB
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