399
FXUS61 KAKQ 110047
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
747 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. DRIER AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE MID
TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 745 PM EST SATURDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED (A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS POSSIBLE) TONIGHT,
REMAINING WARM.
- DRYING OUT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY REDEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTN, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES A SFC WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOW A LARGE
GRADIENT, RANGING FROM THE 60S IN SE VA AND NE NC WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE MD EASTERN
SHORE AND AREAS N/NW OF RICHMOND.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
LIFTS NE FROM THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY 06Z/1 AM. AS THIS OCCURS, THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA (PERHAPS MINUS THE FAR NW).
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE
50S AND 60S, WHILE REMAINING WARM FARTHER SOUTH. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS REMAIN WEAK (SFC BASED CAPE ONLY 250-500 J/KG AT
MOST), BUT WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS INCLUDED ACROSS THE
SE 2/3 OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
EARLY AM HRS SUNDAY IN THE SE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED,
BUT SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
IT WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SE.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG
THE COAST, AS AREAS FARTHER INLAND SEE CLEARING SKIES. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD WITH BKN CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 18-00Z. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NE 1/2 OF
THE CWA WHERE THERE IS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE
DGZ. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AS SUNSET
APPROACHES TO POTENTIALLY SEE A RA/SN MIX OVER THE NORTHERN NECK
AND MD EASTERN SHORE, THOUGH SFC TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
55-60F SE TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S N, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY STEADY OR FALLING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH). IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WITH WNW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (TO NEAR 1035
MB) BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, EVENTUALLY RIDGING ENE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN MID 40S TO NEAR 50 F
ON MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLE MON NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE AIRMASS MODIFIES TUESDAY AS SW WINDS
INCREASE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH WARM INTO THE 50S FOR MOST, A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL SEASONAL. MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS
THE SE BY MID-LATE WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY MID-
LATE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT A COASTAL LOW MAY
DEVELOP, BUT THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW WILL
HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON OUR FORECAST. WITH THE MANY POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DEPICTED, HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT
SIMPLE WITH JUST SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTN/
NIGHT, THEN SHOWING A TRANSITION TO A RAIN- SNOW MIX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION,
BRINGING COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NW. THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY
SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH EACH FORECAST CYCLE AS DETAILS BECOME
MORE CLEAR, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE COMING WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ANY TRENDS IN THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS
NECESSARY. DRYING OUT, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 745 PM EST SATURDAY...
MIX OF FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
MFVR/IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE N AND NW AND VFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. GUIDANCE KEEPS SBY IN IFR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
RIC ON THE BORDER BETWEEN IFR TO THE NORTH AND MVFR/VFR TO THE
SOUTH. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PRIMARILY EXPECTING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS TONIGHT. MVFR LINGERS FOR THE SE
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BUT IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY THE AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15-25 KT OVERNIGHT SHIFT
TO THE NW BETWEEN 06-12Z. LLWS OF AROUND 40-45 KTS IS ALSO
LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS ALONG THE FRONT, SO THAT HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED IN ALL TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
(BEST CHC AT SBY). DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AREAS OF SEA FOG LINGER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FOR THE UPPER
MIDDLE BAY, RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER, AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY, JAMES
RIVER, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NW GALE FORCED WINDS.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH A WEAK LOW FORMING OVER THE FRONT CAUSING IT TO STALL.
THE STRONGER ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, PUSHING EASTWARD. WITH THIS STALLED FRONT, DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S OVER THE COOL SEAS, WHICH HAVE
ALLOWED MARINE DENSE FOG TO FORM. THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS HAS SEEN
MOST OF THE FOG DISSIPATE, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN,
WHILE THE NORTHERN WATERS, INCLUDING THE MIDDLE BAY AND RAPPAHANNOCK
RIVER, CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG. HAVE CONTINUED THE MARINE
DENSE FOG FOR THE MIDDLE BAY AND RAPP. RIVER UNTIL 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 PM
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, ALLOWING THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE BAY AND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
THE FRONT MOVED TO THE NORTH. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, WAVES AND
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 2-3 FT IN THE CHES. BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF COASTAL WATERS (EXCLUDING THE YORK AND RAPPAHANNOCK
RIVERS) BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
THEN, A TRAILING, SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH CAA LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT BY 6-8 HOURS,
EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING WNW
WINDS AND SEAS. LOCAL WIND PROBS AS WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO 34+ KT FOR A 3-6 HR PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STRONG MIXING OF ~50 KT 925 MB WINDS. WITH
THE HIGH CONFIDENCE, THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING FOR THE SAME ZONES AND TIMEFRAME. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MORE
MARGINAL IN THE CHES. BAY WITH WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT,
SO HAVE LEFT THE BAY OUT OF THE WARNING. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
BRIEF GUSTS ABOVE 34 KT IN THE BAY, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THESE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, SO WILL HANDLE WITH SMWS IF NEEDED. WILL NEED
SUBSEQUENT SCA FOR THE REMAINING WATERS, AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES
EXPIRE. ADDITIONALLY, WAVES AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, PEAKING AROUND 3-4 FT IN THE BAY AND 4-7 FT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH MOSTLY SW WINDS. ANOTHER SERIES
OF FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MID WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW A
PERIOD OF POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SW WINDS AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD
BACK TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY (1/10):
* RIC: 75/1930 (UNLIKELY)
* ORF: 72/1957 (WILL LIKELY SET A NEW RECORD).
* SBY: 69/1930 (UNLIKELY)
* ECG: 75/1937 (POSSIBLE)
* RECORD HIGH FOR DATE TIED YESTERDAY 1/9 AT ORF
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY (1/10):
* RIC 50/1972 (59 THROUGH 2 PM THIS AFTN)
* ORF 57/1972 (58 THROUGH 2 PM THIS AFTN)
(SBY AND ECG WILL NOT SET RECORD HIGH MINS TODAY)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
654-656-658.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ637.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/RHR
SHORT TERM...LKB/NB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB/NB
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...KMC/MAM
CLIMATE...AKQ
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