247
FXUS61 KAKQ 111042
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
542 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO SE
VA AND NE NC. DRIER AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY IN SE VA AND NE NC LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- DRYING OUT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY REDEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTN, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND KAKQ IS
DETECTING A VERY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAS LOST A LOT OF
DEFINITION AND SPATIAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN THE PIEDMONT, AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE IN SE VA AND
NE NC WHERE THE FRONT HAS NOT MOVED THROUGH, TEMPERATURES REMAIN
VERY MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WHILE THE CURRENT LINE OF SHOWERS
IS MUCH LESS ROBUST THAN INITIALLY FORECAST, HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO HOLD ONTO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AFTER
SUNRISE, SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING.
THE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY HOLD ON FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY TODAY (ESPECIALLY IN SE VA AND NE NC)
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL CURVE AND WILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAY. AS COOLER,
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR MIXING. A DECENT LLJ WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND
SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A
WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES, AN UPPER LOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION, AND SOME
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, A BRIEF, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW, HI-RES GUIDANCE
IS HONING IN ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA, INCLUDING THE
EASTERN SHORE, FOR THE LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS. THOUGH THE
AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX JUST BEFORE SUNSET, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F AND WINDS
WILL START TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 40S ON MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SW
FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AS SW WINDS INCREASE AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE SE. HIGHS WARM INTO THE 50S FOR MOST, WHICH IS A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL SEASONABLE. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES BY MID-WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THAT A SYSTEM COULD BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE
AREA BY MID-LATE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT A LOW MAY
DEVELOP AS A DEEP, STRONG TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE SE, BUT THIS
IS DEPENDENT ON IF THIS TROUGH PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.
IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS DEVELOPING
LOW STILL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS
POSSIBLE LOW WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON OUR FORECAST. WITH THE
MANY POSSIBLE SCENARIOS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DEPICTED, HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH RAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY, THEN SHOWING A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE
WITH EACH FORECAST CYCLE AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR, BUT FOR NOW
WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN
THE COMING WEEK. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 542 AM EST SUNDAY...
A VERY WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING
TOWARDS ORF AND PHF, SO CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO
AT LEAST MVFR AS THEY MOVE THROUGH WITH VIS POTENTIALLY NOT DROPPING
THAT MUCH. CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO IMPROVE AT RIC, BUT A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR SBY SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
-SHRA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BY LATE THIS MORNING, FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS (POSSIBLY SOME
SNOW) COULD IMPACT MAINLY RIC AND SBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THEM FOR
NOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW, WITH
MOST TERMINALS AT LEAST W AS OF NOW. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE,
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE (AS HIGH AS 35 KTS AT RIC) BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL START TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINALS BY MID-LATE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 315 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS. SCAS GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR THE E VA RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
- SCA'S LIKELY REPLACE GALES OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS FALL
BACK BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
THROUGH TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. SSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ~25 KT IN THE LOWER
CHES BAY AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
CHINCOTEAGUE. NORTH OF THE FRONT, WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND VEERED
AROUND TO THE W-NW 10-15 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED
TO DROP OFF OVER THE CHES BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER AND THE CURRITUCK
SOUND WITH THE 08Z FORECAST UPDATE. WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH THROUGH
14-16Z, WITH MINIMAL CAA BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
SECONDARY FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
THEN RAMPING UP QUICKLY IN THE 21Z-05Z/4PM-MIDNIGHT EST TIMEFRAME.
POST-FRONTAL CAA ARRIVES FROM THE NW, WITH QUICKLY STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES HELPING TO FACILITATE DEEP, EFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING OF
COOLER, DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE. 00Z/11 MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
STRONGER WITH H925-850 WINDS (50-55+ KT AT H925), WITH IN-HOUSE
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ALSO INCREASING TO 80-100%
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND 50-60% OVER THE BAY FOR THE SAME
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED 3-6 HOUR PERIOD THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT WINDS
WERE ALREADY FORECAST TO BE NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THIS TIME, AND IN
LIGHT OF UPWARD TRENDS TO WIND FIELDS AND W/CAMS SHOWING SOME HIGHER
GUSTS TO 30-35KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HAVE
EXPANDED THE GALE WARNING INTO THE REMAINDER OF OUR CHESAPEAKE BAY
ZONES, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE E VA RIVERS
AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
SEAS OF 4-6 FT AT THIS TIME SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. AS SUCH, THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 7 AM, AND NORTH OF
CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 10AM. AFTER A BRIEF LULL, SEAS WILL INCREASE
BACK TO 5-7 FT (WAVES BUILD TO 3-5 FT) WITH WIND WAVES DOMINATING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BEFORE SUBSIDING HEADING INTO
MONDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY, WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING ON OFFSHORE
(MOSTLY SW) WINDS. ANOTHER SERIES OF FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS MID WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE SCA
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SW WINDS, WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING BACK TO 4-5 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES BY NORTH OF THE
AREA, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE VEERING WINDS TO THE W-NW
AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL SCA HEADLINES LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
NORFOLK (ORF) SET A NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 75 DEGREES
YESTERDAY (1/10). THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 72 DEGREES THAT
WAS SET IN 1939.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...LKB/NB
LONG TERM...LKB/NB
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...KMC/MAM
CLIMATE...AKQ
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