235
FXUS61 KAKQ 121746
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1246 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL INTO
MIDWEEK. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE, AND MAINLY SUNNY TODAY.
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD AIR HAS CERTAINLY ARRIVED BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LUCKILY, WINDS HAVE DIED
DOWN, WHICH HAS KEPT ANY FURTHER WIND CHILL AT BAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE NE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER TUESDAY, WITH MORE CLOUDS BUT STILL
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AS SW WINDS INCREASE AS
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SE. HIGHS WARM INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST, WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL SEASONABLE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR DURING THE DAY, BUT SOME CLOUD COVER WILL START TO
FILL IN OVERNIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO DIG DOWN ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE SOME SURFACE
TROUGHING ALONG THE SE COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO
20% OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NW
PIEDMONT AS WELL AS NE NC DUE TO THE TWO SEPARATE FEATURES
MENTIONED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AND
ALONG AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING, SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS AS THIS INITIAL
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL REMAIN RAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BECOMING UNSETTLED, WITH A POTENTIAL ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN
LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHILE THERE REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER
SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO SOME AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. MOST OF MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TOWARDS THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. PRIOR TO THIS,
THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A "50-50" LOW (50N LATITUDE 50W
LONGITUDE) EARLY THIS WEEK THAT TRANSLATES ENE TOWARDS GREENLAND
BY MIDWEEK, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS
ATLANTIC CANADA BY MIDWEEK. UPSTREAM, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THESE
FEATURES ARE ALL FAVORABLE FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AND COLDER
AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME AMPLIFIED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO BLOCKING SYSTEMS. AT THE
SURFACE, A SECONDARY LOW (ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS TEXAS) MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND
LIFT NE TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW (OR LACK THEREOF), AS WELL AS THE
INTERACTION OF THIS LOW AND THE TROUGH, WHICH WILL BOTH HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON THE LATE WEEK FORECAST AND COULD MEAN THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND ONLY THE CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE MAINTAINED A SIMILAR FORECAST TO THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE, WITH THE EVENT STARTING OUT AS RAIN DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY, THEN THE COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
POSSIBLE DEEPENING LOW MOVING OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE RAIN TO
START TO TRANSITION INTO LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. AS WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS,
SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE THROUGH THE EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
NOW. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS STARTED TO TREND AWAY FROM THIS
SOLUTION, SO THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH EACH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLE AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. FOR
NOW, WE WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE COMING WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE LATE-WEEK SYSTEM, A
PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE
HORIZON.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT W-SW
WINDS AVERAGE 5-10KT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR
SKY. EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT ON TUESDAY, BUT GENERALLY
NOT UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE NEXT SYSTEM HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS LATE WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS HAVE REPLACED GALES OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS AND
ARE IN EFFECT INTO LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS FALL
BACK BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
THROUGH TONIGHT: WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST EVENING. W-NW WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT, WITH GUSTS TO ~30 KT. SEAS 3-5 FT,
WAVES WERE 2-4 FT, HIGHEST AT THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. GALE WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND WILL BE IN EFFECT
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. THE SCA FOR THE TIDAL VA RIVERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND WILL DROP OFF FIRST AT 4 AM, WITH THE REMAINDER
DROPPING OFF SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK TO THE W-SW 10-15KT
THIS AFTERNOON, AND SSW 10-15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH WAVES 1-2 FT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: PLEASANT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TOMORROW, AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH. SSW WINDS ~10-15 KT. THAT
HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TUE NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA LATE TUE/WED MORNING OVER THE BAY AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT, WITH THE ASSOCIATED (DRY)
SURFACE FRONT EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY DEEPEN ALONG THAT
FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST THU AND THU NIGHT. INCREASING
VEERING W-NW WINDS BEHIND THAT SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THIS WEEK, AND COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES
OF GALE FORCE GUSTS (30-40% OVER THE BAY, 40-60% OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN) AND EVEN SOME LOW BUT NON-ZERO PROBS FOR STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS FRIDAY MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...LKB/NB
LONG TERM...LKB/NB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...KMC/MAM
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