249
FXUS61 KAKQ 130705
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
205 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE (FASTER) AND
DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. THIS TRANSLATES TO A
LOWER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING DRY, WHILE TRENDING BREEZY AND MILDER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
2) LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WED
NIGHT, AND PASSES BY TO THE N/NE OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY
ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY MORNING.
3) TURNING COLDER, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMAINING DRY AND TRENDING BREEZY AND MILDER
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE (~1030MB) IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF
COAST, RIDGING ENE INTO THE LOCAL AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, AS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SSW RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT
STRONGER TODAY, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO WARM UP QUICKLY INTO THE
50S TODAY UNDER A MAINLY SUNNY SKY. A FEW READINGS AROUND 60
DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC. A FEW
CLOUDS CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. DESPITE
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY, MILD RETURN FLOW WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER MILD DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S WEST
OF THE BAY, TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FAR SE COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WED NIGHT, AND PASSES BY N OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY
MORNING.
00Z/13 MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH A FASTER, DRIER SOLUTION FOR
THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS A DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GULF COAST. OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES, WITH THE RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR RAPID
DRYING AND THEREFORE LOWER QPF. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO CROSS THE AREA, ALONG AND (MAINLY)
BEHIND THE CROSSING COLD FRONT WED NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WHILE THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR DOES ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, IT
IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING AS IF THE COLDER AIR WILL BE CHASING THE
DEPARTING MOISTURE, WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW CROSSING
NEAR OF JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS IT EXITS. THIS IS
A PATTERN THAT RARELY RESULTS IN ANY TANGIBLE SNOWFALL ACROSS
MOST OF OUR REGION. THE LATEST NBM REMAINS A BIT HIGHER THAN
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS, LIKELY STILL AT LEAST IN PART REFLECTING
THE PREVIOUS MODEL CONSENSUS OF THIS PAST WEEKEND. WOULD
THEREFORE NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE CHANCES DROP OFF COMPLETELY
AS WE GET CLOSER. THUS, WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF, HAVE REMOVED ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE AND EXPECT VERY LIMITED
TO NO IMPACTS FROM SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TURNING COLDER, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BECOMING RATHER COLD AND BREEZY/WINDY IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S N AND IN THE 40S S, EVEN
W/ DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. COLD W/ LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
THU NIGHT. EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH, WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES BUT CLOSE, AND CERTAINLY A STARK CONTRAST FROM THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, KEEPING
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SE
CONUS, WITH RESULTANT NW FLOW ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER INFLUX OF
ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF A SECOND, REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS STILL KEYING IN ON A PAIR
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES, ONE AHEAD OF AND ONE JUST BEHIND THAT NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS POINT, THE "BEST" CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY, THOUGH POPS REMAIN
LOW AT ONLY 15-20%. THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL APPEARS TOO
PROGRESSIVE TO TAP INTO ANY SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE,
REINFORCING THE DEVELOPING COLD, DRY PATTERN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1145 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 06Z/13 TAF PERIOD. LIGHT W-SW WINDS AVERAGE 5-7 KT
OVERNIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE
A BIT ON TUESDAY LATE MORNING, GUSTING TO 15-20 KT BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WED
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED EVENING, WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THU MORNING, AS A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH SW WINDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST INFLUENCES THE AREA.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED SW WINDS AND SEAS.
- A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK WITH
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG ~1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, INFLUENCING THE LOCAL WATERS AND
ALLOWING FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS CURRENTLY. SW
WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT (WAVES ~1 FT) WERE OBSERVED AT THE
TIME OF WRITING. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SOME AND
TRANSLATE OFFSHORE FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS, AROUND
10-15 KT AND 1-3 FT, THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
THEN, WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND DECREASED HIGH
PRESSURE, A STRONG LLJ AROUND 40-50 KT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND
SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN SCA CONDITIONS WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT IN THE CHES. BAY AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES. THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE LOWER WIND SPEEDS AT 10-15
KT. LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW 70-90% PROBS OF SUSTAINED 18 KT GUSTS IN
THE MIDDLE BAY, WITH 40-50% PROBS IN THE LOWER BAY AND MOUTH OF THE
BAY. IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, PROBS HAVE INCREASED TO 50-80%
PROBS OF 25 KT GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE TO
3-5 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES (2-3 FT SOUTH) AND 2-4 FT IN THE CHES.
BAY (HIGHEST WAVES IN THE MIDDLE BAY). AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA AT THIS TIME, BUT
WILL LIKELY NEED ISSUING IN THE NEXT PACKAGE IF TRENDS REMAIN.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A STRONGER SECONDARY FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
TO BE NW BEHIND THE FRONTS, INCREASING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY TO
LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS. THE SURGE OF STRONG CAA MAY BE SLIGHTLY
LAGGED, IMPACTING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH WOULD ALLOW WINDS
TO INCREASE AGAIN. LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR GALE
FORCED GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT, NOW AT 30-50% FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. ANOTHER
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...KMC/MAM
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