937
FXUS61 KAKQ 131125
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
625 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE (FASTER) AND
DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. THIS TRANSLATES TO A
LOWER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING DRY, WHILE TRENDING BREEZY AND MILDER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2) LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND PASSES BY TO THE N/NE OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, POTENTIALLY ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
3) TURNING COLDER, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 625 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMAINING DRY AND TRENDING BREEZY AND MILDER
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE (~1030MB) IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF
COAST, RIDGING ENE INTO THE LOCAL AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, AS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SSW RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT
STRONGER TODAY, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO WARM UP QUICKLY INTO THE
50S UNDER A MAINLY SUNNY SKY. A FEW READINGS AROUND 60 DEGREES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC. A FEW CLOUDS
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM, BUT OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR AND NOT AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. DESPITE
SOME INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY, MILD RETURN FLOW
WILL PROVIDE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S WEST OF THE BAY AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY (LOW TO MID 50S LOWER EASTERN SHORE), WITH HIGHS NEAR
60 DEGREES FAR SE COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WED NIGHT, AND PASSES BY N OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY
ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY MORNING.
00Z/13 MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE A FASTER, DRIER SOLUTION FOR
THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS A DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE GULF COAST. OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES, WITH THE RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR
RAPID DRYING AND THEREFORE LOWER QPF. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO CROSS THE AREA, ALONG AND
(MAINLY) BEHIND THE CROSSING COLD FRONT WED NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WHILE THE
FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
IT IS INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THE COLDER AIR WILL BE CHASING
THE DEPARTING MOISTURE, WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW CROSSING
NEAR OF JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS IT EXITS TO THE
NNE. THIS IS A PATTERN THAT RARELY RESULTS IN ANY TANGIBLE
SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. FOR ITS PART, THE LATEST
NBM REMAINS A BIT HIGHER THAN LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS, LIKELY
STILL AT LEAST IN PART REFLECTING THE PREVIOUS MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THIS PAST WEEKEND. WOULD THEREFORE NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THESE CHANCES DROP OFF COMPLETELY AS WE GET CLOSER. THUS, WHILE
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF,
HAVE REMOVED ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE
AND EXPECT VERY LIMITED TO NO IMPACTS FROM SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TURNING COLDER, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BECOMING RATHER COLD AND BREEZY/WINDY IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S N AND IN THE 40S S, EVEN
W/ DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. COLD W/ LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
THU NIGHT. EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH, WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES BUT CLOSE, AND CERTAINLY A STARK CONTRAST FROM THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, KEEPING
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SE
CONUS, WITH RESULTANT NW FLOW ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER INFLUX OF
ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF A SECOND, REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS STILL KEYING IN ON A PAIR
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES, ONE AHEAD OF AND ONE JUST BEHIND THAT NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS POINT, THE "BEST" CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY, THOUGH POPS REMAIN
LOW AT ONLY 15-20%. THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL APPEARS TOO
PROGRESSIVE TO TAP INTO ANY SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE,
REINFORCING THE DEVELOPING COLD, DRY PATTERN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 625 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 12Z/13 TAF PERIOD. LIGHT W-SW WINDS AVERAGE 5-7 KT
EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
INCREASE A BIT LATE THIS MORNING, GUSTING TO 15-20 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO WED
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED EVENING, WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THU MORNING, AS A SECONDARY
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 220 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY SW WINDS.
- A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. SW WINDS
ARE GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT, BUT THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TRANSLATES OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING AS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES THROUGH SE CANADA, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION, A SW LOW-LEVEL JET STILL LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA UNTIL
~00Z/7 PM THIS EVENING. AFTER 00Z, WINDS BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES
THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA SW FLOW SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NW, ALONG WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS TO 20-25 KT FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS. THESE ELEVATED WINDS LIKELY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZES. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE VERY LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE FORECASTED
GUSTS CURRENTLY FALL JUST SHY OF GALE-FORCE, CANNOT RULE THIS OUT ON
THE OCEAN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST
CYCLES. WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
ELEVATED SW FLOW POTENTIALLY RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THIS
FRONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES ARE
PROBABLE AS WINDS BECOME NW.
SEAS ARE 2-3.5 FT THIS MORNING, WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. SEAS
AND WAVES INCREASE TO 3-5 FT AND 2-3 FT, RESPECTIVELY, TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELEVATED SEAS AND WAVES RETURN EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...SW
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