648
FXUS61 KAKQ 290005
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
705 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LOCALIZED IMPACTS FROM
THE WINTER STORM THIS PAST SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS
WITH LITTLE TO NO MELTING OF THE SNOW/ICE.
2) A WEAK CLIPPER AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
3) INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS AND A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LOCALIZED
IMPACTS FROM THE WINTER STORM THIS PAST SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE IN
SOME AREAS WITH LITTLE TO NO MELTING OF THE SNOW/ICE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER, ARCTIC AIR FILTERING INTO
THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
THOUGH AGAIN THE NBM CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE (WITH THE NBM VERIFYING TOO LOW THE PAST
2 NIGHTS). STILL, THE COMBINATION OF A STIFF NW BREEZE AND THE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO DROP TO AS
LOW AS -5 TO 0 ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO 5 TO
10 SOUTHEAST. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING AND ENDING 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WEAK CLIPPER AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LATEST CAMS (HRRR, RRFS, NAM3K) ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND MD EASTERN SHORE AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINITY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE
GROUND, LIFT AND SATURATION ARE IN THE DGZ BELOW 5000 FEET
ACCORDING TO SEVERAL OF THE CAMS SOUNDINGS. VERY COLD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (TEENS TO LOWER 20S) WILL ALLOW FOR AN EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATION OF ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL, AND UP TO 0.5" OF
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS IF FROM ~6 PM TO ~11 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ANOTHER STRONG STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS AND A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN REGARDS TO THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO THE WEEKEND SYSTEM,
PARTICULARLY WITH QPF AND LOCATION. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR
TO WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST
CYCLES: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A STRONG HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF COAST
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING, SHIFTING SE TO A
POSITION ALONG THE SC/GA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT PART IN THE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLES HAVE A FEW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS PAINTED AS TO WHERE
THIS LOW DEVELOPS, WHICH WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRETTY MUCH EVERYTHING DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE
LOW ALONG OR OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
WHICH COULD PRESENT A PLETHORA OF ISSUES CONCERNING IMPACTS TO
THE REGION INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL, HIGH WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.
FOR THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS AND ENSEMBLES, THE GFS/GEFS
CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER INLAND/CLOSEST TO THE COAST (THOUGH IT
HAS SHIFTED A TOUCH FURTHER SE COMPARED TO EARLIER). THE
GEM/GEPS AND ECMWF/EPS ARE STILL FARTHER SOUTH/OFFSHORE, BUT
HAVE STARTED TO TREND A BIT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE
REALLY STARTED TO HONE IN ON THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS. PROBS FOR 3" AND 6"+
REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, FALLING OFF FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS ONE CAVEAT
TO THESE PROBABILITIES IS THAT THEY ARE USING A 10:1 SLR, BUT
WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE (AND NO WARM NOSE
ALOFT), THESE WILL LIKELY BE MUCH HIGHER ESPECIALLY FATHER
INLAND, PROBABLY FROM 15:1 TO 18:1. ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE WHERE THE HIGHEST
SNOW WILL BE OBSERVED. AS OF NOW, OUR FORECAST HAS INCREASED
POPS TO CHANCE/LIKELY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ALONG
THE INITIAL INLAND SFC TROUGH PROGGED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM IS JUST STARTING TO
ORGANIZE. STILL, THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AND
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA. POPS RANGE FROM 70-90%
ALONG THE COAST WITH LIKELY POPS FROM MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SNOW COMES TO AN END LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY FALLING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 40 TO 50+
MPH ALONG THE COAST AND 30 TO 35 MPH FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, IMPACTS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-IMPACT
WINTER STORM. ADDITIONAL MESSAGING AND POTENTIAL HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
THE LATEST FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 705 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE 00Z/29 TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT ASIDE FROM A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WINDS VEER AROUND FROM W-SW TO THE NW LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST, INCLUDING ORF AND ECG, WILL SEE
GUSTS OF 18-22KT PICK UP AFTER 05Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. CONTINUE TO WATCH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. EXACT IMPACTS AND LOCATIONS
AREN'T CLEAR YET, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT
LEAST FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH THIS STORM, WITH ELEVATED WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND.
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
- A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT, AND THE
UPPER RIVERS FROM TONIGHT INTO THU. ADDITIONAL FREEZING SPRAY
IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN STORM CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.
WINDS WERE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME NW 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. WAVES OF 3-4 FT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE
EXPECTED. AS SUCH, SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME HI-RES
GUIDANCE (MAINLY THE HRRR AND ARW) SHOW WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. AS SUCH, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SCAS MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED IF GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS IS REALIZED. GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WINDS AND COLD AIR TEMPERATURE, FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR
THE CHES BAY, COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT, AND THE
UPPER RIVERS FROM TONIGHT INTO THU.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE TRACKING NE OR ENE
OFF THE COAST THROUGH SUN. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL
FOR QUITE IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALLS WITH A MEAN MSLP AROUND 975MB BY
SUN AFTERNOON (WHEN THE LOW IS OFFSHORE) ON ENSEMBLES. WHILE THE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL DEPEND LARGELY UPON BOTH THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE EXACT TRACK, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STORM CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE CHES BAY, COASTAL WATERS, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND
WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER RIVERS. SEAS OF 10-
15+ FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. ADDITIONALLY,
GIVEN THE HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SNOW (POTENTIALLY HEAVY), PERIODS OF
ZERO VISIBILITY ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SAT INTO SUN. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE LOW AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MON.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW COINCIDING WITH HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. WHILE TIDAL FORECASTS DON'T QUITE GO OUT
FAR ENOUGH TO CAPTURE THE EVENT, EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR
MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY AND THE VIRGINIA BEACH AND CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS
COASTLINE, WITH MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. THE WORST COASTAL FLOODING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ630.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ631-632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/JKP
MARINE...RMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page