975
FXUS61 KAKQ 290655
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND EVENING UPDATE (KEY MESSAGE 2)
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LOCALIZED IMPACTS FROM
THE WINTER STORM THIS PAST SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS
WITH LITTLE TO NO MELTING OF THE SNOW/ICE.
2) A WEAK CLIPPER AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
3) INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS AND A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 910 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LOCALIZED
IMPACTS FROM THE WINTER STORM THIS PAST SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE IN
SOME AREAS WITH LITTLE TO NO MELTING OF THE SNOW/ICE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER, ARCTIC AIR FILTERING INTO
THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
THOUGH AGAIN THE NBM CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE (WITH THE NBM VERIFYING TOO LOW THE PAST
2 NIGHTS). STILL, THE COMBINATION OF A STIFF NW BREEZE AND THE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO DROP TO AS
LOW AS -5 TO 0 ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO 5 TO
10 SOUTHEAST. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING AND ENDING 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WEAK CLIPPER AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
LATEST OBS SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING SE MD
OVER TO THE MD EASTERN SHORE AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND ITS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SOUTH THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED A 20% POP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ANOTHER STRONG STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS AND A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN REGARDS TO THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO THE WEEKEND SYSTEM,
PARTICULARLY WITH QPF AND LOCATION. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR
TO WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST
CYCLES: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A STRONG HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF COAST
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING, SHIFTING SE TO A
POSITION ALONG THE SC/GA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT PART IN THE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLES HAVE A FEW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS PAINTED AS TO WHERE
THIS LOW DEVELOPS, WHICH WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRETTY MUCH EVERYTHING DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE
LOW ALONG OR OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
WHICH COULD PRESENT A PLETHORA OF ISSUES CONCERNING IMPACTS TO
THE REGION INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL, HIGH WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.
FOR THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS AND ENSEMBLES, THE GFS/GEFS
CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER INLAND/CLOSEST TO THE COAST (THOUGH IT
HAS SHIFTED A TOUCH FURTHER SE COMPARED TO EARLIER). THE
GEM/GEPS AND ECMWF/EPS ARE STILL FARTHER SOUTH/OFFSHORE, BUT
HAVE STARTED TO TREND A BIT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE
REALLY STARTED TO HONE IN ON THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS. PROBS FOR 3" AND 6"+
REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, FALLING OFF FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS ONE CAVEAT
TO THESE PROBABILITIES IS THAT THEY ARE USING A 10:1 SLR, BUT
WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE (AND NO WARM NOSE
ALOFT), THESE WILL LIKELY BE MUCH HIGHER ESPECIALLY FATHER
INLAND, PROBABLY FROM 15:1 TO 18:1. ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE WHERE THE HIGHEST
SNOW WILL BE OBSERVED. AS OF NOW, OUR FORECAST HAS INCREASED
POPS TO CHANCE/LIKELY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ALONG
THE INITIAL INLAND SFC TROUGH PROGGED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM IS JUST STARTING TO
ORGANIZE. STILL, THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AND
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA. POPS RANGE FROM 70-90%
ALONG THE COAST WITH LIKELY POPS FROM MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SNOW COMES TO AN END LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY FALLING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 40 TO 50+
MPH ALONG THE COAST AND 30 TO 35 MPH FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, IMPACTS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-IMPACT
WINTER STORM. ADDITIONAL MESSAGING AND POTENTIAL HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
THE LATEST FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 705 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE 00Z/29 TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT ASIDE FROM A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WINDS VEER AROUND FROM W-SW TO THE NW LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST, INCLUDING ORF AND ECG, WILL SEE
GUSTS OF 18-22KT PICK UP AFTER 05Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. CONTINUE TO WATCH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. EXACT IMPACTS AND LOCATIONS
AREN'T CLEAR YET, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT
LEAST FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH THIS STORM, WITH ELEVATED WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND.
MARINE
AS OF 155 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THIS
MORNING.
- STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CHES. BAY, LOWER JAMES, ALL
COASTAL WATERS, AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND STARTING SAT
AFTERNOON. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TIDAL RIVERS.
- A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT, AND THE
UPPER RIVERS FROM TONIGHT INTO THU. ADDITIONAL FREEZING SPRAY
IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER PUSH OF CAA BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAS TRIGGERED ANOTHER SURGE
OF NORTHERLY WINDS, PRIMARILY OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. LATEST OBS
INDICATE WINDS OF 15-25KT WITH A FEW OF THE HIGHER SITES SHOWING
GUSTS UP TO 30KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER THE RIVERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND, BUT WITH GUSTS ONLY 20-25KT. SO FAR, WINDS ARE
UNDER-PERFORMING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING 10-
15KT. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES. DESPITE THE
UNDER-PERFORMANCE, WILL LEAVE THE SCAS IN PLACE FOR NOW OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS IN CASE THERE'S A SUNRISE SURGE AS THERE OFTEN IS IN
THESE SCENARIOS. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TOMORROW, THOUGH REMAINING BREEZY. SEAS
WILL BE 3-4FT TODAY, THEN 2-3FT TOMORROW. WAVES IN THE BAY 2-3FT
TODAY AND 1-2FT TOMORROW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE INCREASINGLY LIKELY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG SURFACE
LOW FORMING ALONG AND TRAVELING UP THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME VARIATION IN EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW, BUT DO CONSISTENTLY DEPICT A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DRASTIC PRESSURE CHANGES OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD. STILL STICKING
WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT SINCE THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE
STILL MOSTLY OUT OF RANGE. THIS MORNING'S FORECAST PACKAGE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S FORECAST, BUT AM FEELING
MORE CONFIDENT IN IT. NNE LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, REACHING GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SAT NIGHT, THEN PEAK SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS PEAK WOULD BE 35-45KT OVER THE BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND,
AND COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS 50-60KT. THE UPPER RIVERS WOULD BE A
BIT LOWER, BUT STILL WELL WITHIN GALE RANGE. THIS FORECAST IS
SUPPORTED BY LOCAL WIND PROBS, WHICH HAVE 80-85% FOR 48KT+ WIND
GUSTS FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND 50-70% IN THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. DID GO AHEAD AND PUT UP STORM WATCHES FOR
THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, COASTAL WATERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH GALE
WATCHES FOR THE UPPER RIVERS STARTING SAT EVENING. SEAS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE 8-12FT. WAVES IN THE BAY CLIMB TO 7-8FT.
LASTLY, PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK DUE TO COLD WATER/AIR TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS.
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ021>025.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ630-631-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ631-
632-634-656-658.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ632>634-638-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ635>638.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ635>638.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/JKP
MARINE...AC
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