513
FXUS61 KAKQ 290902
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
FA FOR THE WEEKEND STORM, WITH NORTHERN AREAS LEFT OUT. STRONG
WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH,
WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN/SE VA AND NE NC. IN ADDITION,
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG
THE COAST, WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
2) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING LOCALIZED IMPACTS (I.E ICY ROADS) IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WINTER WX THIS WEEKEND. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER AND ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 335 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AMONGST
THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST
OF THE CWA FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN MODE OF DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE THE
BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN DRIER AIR FROM THE N/NW ASSOCIATED WITH A
VERY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (~1045 MB) OVER THE PLAINS,
AND AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST
LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS/GEFS IS THE NW OUTLIER, WRAPPING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND QPF ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL
VA, WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THIS MOISTURE. THE 00Z NAM IS THE OPPOSITE
SOLUTION: ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY OTHER THAN IN FAR SOUTHERN VA
AND NE NC. ONE TREND THAT CONTINUES IN MOST OF THE MODELS IS A
"PIECE" OF THE SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS RIDGING SE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF COAST SHOWING AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS HAS TRENDED TO AN
INITIAL OVERRUNNING PRECIP EVENT (ALL SNOW) THAT COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY (BUT IS MORE PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING). FOR THE PIEDMONT, THIS PORTION OF THE STORM
MAY ACCOUNT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL. SLR VALUES WILL BE
VERY HIGH, 15:1 TO 18:1 SO EVEN A RELATIVELY LOW AMOUNT OF QPF
COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION (WHICH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ON AREA ROADS GIVEN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
FREEZING). STILL THINK THE GFS IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE (AND KEEPS IT MAINTAINED INTO SAT NIGHT EVEN AFTER THE
COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES), SO FORECASTED SNOW TOTALS ARE
WELL BELOW WHAT THE GFS DEPICTS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.
PART 2 OF THE STORM GETS AMPED UP LATER SATURDAY, AND IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE MODELS
(EVEN THE GFS) ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CUTOFF AS IT DROPS SE FROM THE TN VALLEY
(AT 12Z/SAT), TO THE GA-SC COASTAL PLAIN BY SAT EVENING
(00Z/SUN). THE RESULTING SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN BY AS
MUCH AS 15 MB/6 HR SAT EVENING AS IT DRIFTS NE OFF THE COAST.
THEREFORE, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL, WHICH IS OF HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC, VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP FOR COASTAL AREAS, WITH WINDS RATHER STRONG EVEN FOR
INLAND ZONES. STRONG WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SE VA AND NE NC. DECIDED AGAINST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR
THE COAST, BUT AS TIMING CONFIDENCE IMPROVES, A BLIZZARD
WARNING IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS
AND COASTAL NE NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THE WINDS
MAY BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING. OUR LATEST SNOW FORECAST BLENDS ALL
OF THIS AND LEADS TO 1-2" OVER THE FAR N/NW, WITH 12"+ IN
PORTIONS OF NE NC INTO VA BEACH.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, IMPACTS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-IMPACT
WINTER STORM. ADDITIONAL MESSAGING AND HEADLINES WILL NEED
ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. PLEASE CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH AS HAS BEEN PREVALENT THE
PAST 3 DAYS, THE NBM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TERRIBLE, VERIFYING
NEARLY 10 DEGREES TOO COLD IN SOME AREAS, WHICH IS LEADING TO A
COLD WX ADVSY THAT HAS BEEN VERY MARGINAL WITH ONLY SPOTTY
VALUES DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY
FOR NOW AND RE-ASSESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE, TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH LOWER 30S SOUTH. WIND
CHILLS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
DURING THE DAY (COLDEST ON THE EASTERN SHORE). TONIGHT WILL
AGAIN BE VERY COLD, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS THE
SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA, KEEPING WIND
CHILLS NEAR AMBIENT TEMPS THAT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS,
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT VALUES N AND NW. FRIDAY IS EVEN COLDER
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S FOR MOST, ALONG WITH A CHC FOR LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND W OF I-95.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z/29 TAF PERIOD, THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BRIEF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT ORF DUE TO COLD AIR OVER
THE BAY AND ELEVATED N WINDS. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH NNW WINDS OF 5-10 KT OR LESS INLAND AND. LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE COAST, INCLUDING ORF AND ECG, WILL SEE GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
THROUGH ~11Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. CONTINUE TO WATCH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. EXACT IMPACTS AND LOCATIONS AREN'T CLEAR YET, BUT WIDESPREAD
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT LEAST FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH
THIS STORM, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS OF 40 KT+. ELEVATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND,
GUSTING TO 20-30 KT. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND VFR RETURNS FROM
W TO E.
MARINE
AS OF 155 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THIS
MORNING.
- STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CHES. BAY, LOWER JAMES, ALL
COASTAL WATERS, AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND STARTING SAT
AFTERNOON. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TIDAL RIVERS.
- A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT, AND THE
UPPER RIVERS FROM TONIGHT INTO THU. ADDITIONAL FREEZING SPRAY
IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER PUSH OF CAA BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAS TRIGGERED ANOTHER SURGE
OF NORTHERLY WINDS, PRIMARILY OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. LATEST OBS
INDICATE WINDS OF 15-25KT WITH A FEW OF THE HIGHER SITES SHOWING
GUSTS UP TO 30KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER THE RIVERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND, BUT WITH GUSTS ONLY 20-25KT. SO FAR, WINDS ARE
UNDER-PERFORMING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING 10-
15KT. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES. DESPITE THE
UNDER-PERFORMANCE, WILL LEAVE THE SCAS IN PLACE FOR NOW OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS IN CASE THERE'S A SUNRISE SURGE AS THERE OFTEN IS IN
THESE SCENARIOS. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TOMORROW, THOUGH REMAINING BREEZY. SEAS
WILL BE 3-4FT TODAY, THEN 2-3FT TOMORROW. WAVES IN THE BAY 2-3FT
TODAY AND 1-2FT TOMORROW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE INCREASINGLY LIKELY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG SURFACE
LOW FORMING ALONG AND TRAVELING UP THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME VARIATION IN EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW, BUT DO CONSISTENTLY DEPICT A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DRASTIC PRESSURE CHANGES OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD. STILL STICKING
WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT SINCE THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE
STILL MOSTLY OUT OF RANGE. THIS MORNING'S FORECAST PACKAGE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S FORECAST, BUT AM FEELING
MORE CONFIDENT IN IT. NNE LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, REACHING GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SAT NIGHT, THEN PEAK SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS PEAK WOULD BE 35-45KT OVER THE BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND,
AND COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS 50-60KT. THE UPPER RIVERS WOULD BE A
BIT LOWER, BUT STILL WELL WITHIN GALE RANGE. THIS FORECAST IS
SUPPORTED BY LOCAL WIND PROBS, WHICH HAVE 80-85% FOR 48KT+ WIND
GUSTS FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND 50-70% IN THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. DID GO AHEAD AND PUT UP STORM WATCHES FOR
THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, COASTAL WATERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH GALE
WATCHES FOR THE UPPER RIVERS STARTING SAT EVENING. SEAS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE 8-12FT. WAVES IN THE BAY CLIMB TO 7-8FT.
LASTLY, PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK DUE TO COLD WATER/AIR TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS.
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW COINCIDING WITH HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES, WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND THE VIRGINIA BEACH AND
CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS COASTLINE, WITH MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND, LOCATIONS
IN THE UPPER BAY COULD ACTUALLY SEE LOW WATER DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE WORST COASTAL FLOODING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT JAN 31:
- RIC: 23 (1948)
- ORF: 25 (1936)
- SBY: 24 (2019)
- ECG: 29 (1965)
DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL FOR SAT JAN 31 AND SUN FEB 1:
- DATE: SAT JAN 31 SUN FEB 1
- RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948)
- ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910)
- SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962)
- ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ021>025.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ023>025.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-524-525.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ060-061-065>069-079-087.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ076>078-080>086-088>090-512>520-522-523.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ630-631-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ631-
632-634-656-658.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ632>634-638-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ635>638.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ635>638.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...AC
CLIMATE...LKB
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