119
FXUS61 KAKQ 292017
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST, WITH AMOUNTS
DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BLIZZARD
WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG THE
COAST. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TONIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND ACCOMACK COUNTY, VA. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW DUE TO STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, ROUGHLY
ALONG THE US-360 CORRIDOR (POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE RICHMOND METRO).
2) A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN WINTER STORM, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. DUE TO THE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, ANY SNOW COULD QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON
SURFACES, INCLUDING ROADWAYS. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT
POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT.
3) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
KEEPING LOCALIZED IMPACTS (I.E ICY ROADS) IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA EASTERN SHORE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG WINTER STORM IMPACTS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DUE TO STRONG WINDS, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS, ROUGHLY ALONG THE US-360 CORRIDOR (POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE
RICHMOND METRO).
DISAGREEMENT STILL REMAINS HIGHER THAN WHAT IS TYPICALLY SEEN DURING
THIS TIME RANGE (ESPECIALLY ON THE NW SIDE) AMONGST THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS OF THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN MODE OF DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE THE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN
DRIER AIR FROM THE N/NW ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE (~1045 MB) OVER THE PLAINS, AND AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS CAN BE SEEN WELL IN THE
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL RANGE AMOUNTS. IF WE USE RICHMOND AS AN
EXAMPLE, THE 25TH PERCENTILE SHOWS 1" AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE SHOWS
8". FOR NORFOLK, THE RANGES ARE A BIT "CLOSER" WITH THE 25TH BEING
6" AND THE 75TH BEING 10".
DIVING INTO THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES, THE ECMWF/EPS HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF NORTH (UNFORTUNATELY RIGHT NEAR THE RICHMOND METRO). THE
CANADIAN HAS ALSO MOVED A TOUCH NORTH WITH THE ~3-6" AMOUNTS, BUT
KEEPS THE 6"+ AMOUNTS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST. FINALLY, THE
GFS/GEFS HAS TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z/29 RUN), KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE 6"+ AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND THE OVERALL HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS NC. FINALLY, WE ARE JUST STARTING TO COME
INTO RANGE OF THE CAMS WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE CLARITY THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST RESEMBLES A BLEND BETWEEN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERALL, SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED ~1-2" ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.5-2" ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, TO ~2-5" THROUGH THE RICHMOND METRO TO THE TRI-
CITIES, TO 4-7" ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA OVER TO EASTERN SHORE,
TO 7-12+" ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA (HAMPTON ROADS) INTO NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA.
ONE TREND THAT CONTINUES IN MOST OF THE MODELS IS A "PIECE" OF THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS RIDGING SE INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST
SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS HAS TRENDED TO AN INITIAL OVERRUNNING PRECIP
EVENT (ALL SNOW). FOR THE PIEDMONT, THIS PORTION OF THE STORM MAY
ACCOUNT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL. SLR VALUES WILL BE VERY
HIGH, 15:1 TO 18:1 SO EVEN A RELATIVELY LOW AMOUNT OF QPF COULD LEAD
TO A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION (WHICH WILL BE EFFICIENT ON AREA ROADS
GIVEN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING).
PART 2 OF THE STORM GETS AMPED UP LATER SATURDAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE MODELS (EVEN THE GFS) ARE
ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
CUTOFF AS IT DROPS SE FROM THE TN VALLEY (AT 12Z/SAT), TO THE GA-SC
COASTAL PLAIN BY SATURDAY EVENING (00Z/SUN). THE RESULTING LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN BY AS MUCH AS 15 MB/6 HR SAT EVENING AS IT DRIFTS
NE OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL, WHICH IS
OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC, VERY STRONG WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOR COASTAL AREAS, WITH WINDS RATHER STRONG EVEN
FOR INLAND ZONES. STRONG WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SE VA AND NE NC. ADDED BLIZZARD WORDING TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS AND COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND BLIZZARD WARNING MAY LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. WINDS MAY GUST TO 50-60 MPH ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PLEASE KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. A
~50 MILE SHIFT IN THE COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE DRASTIC IMPACTS TO THE
FINAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL MESSAGING AND HEADLINES WILL NEED
ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN WINTER STORM,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
DUE TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, ANY SNOW COULD QUICKLY ACCUMULATE
ON SURFACES, INCLUDING ROADWAYS. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT
POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT.
LATEST CAMS, INCLUDING THE 18Z HRRR AND NAM 3KM SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-64 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF SNOW DOES FALL, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY (~20 TO
40% PROBABILITY) OF ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.5". AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATION ON ALL SURFACES. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE, THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS IF IT DOES
HAPPEN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, KEEPING LOCALIZED IMPACTS (I.E ICY ROADS) IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA EASTERN
SHORE.
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY COLD, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA, KEEPING WIND CHILLS
NEAR AMBIENT TEMPS THAT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS OR MID TO UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS NW. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A LIGHT BREEZE
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SHORE TO ALLOW FOR WIND
CHILLS TO DROP INTO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TERRITORY. AS A RESULT,
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM
FOR THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND ACCOMACK COUNTY, VA WHERE WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS 0 ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR
MOST. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG N TO NW WIND AND
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
AS LOW AS 0 TO 10 BELOW.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN FEW-SCT250 TODAY. WINDS ARE NW AT 6-10KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 18KT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS BECOME NNW TO NNE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATER MORNING TO MID-DAY HOURS OF FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW COULD START ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, INCLUDING
FVX AND POSSIBLY RIC (THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE), FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IT'S THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD TO INCLUDE MOST
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAY BECOME +SN WITH LOW VIS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG LATER
SAT, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WIDESPREAD
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
MARINE
AS OF 155 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THIS
MORNING.
- STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CHES. BAY, LOWER JAMES, ALL
COASTAL WATERS, AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND STARTING SAT
AFTERNOON. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TIDAL RIVERS.
- A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT, AND THE
UPPER RIVERS FROM TONIGHT INTO THU. ADDITIONAL FREEZING SPRAY
IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER PUSH OF CAA BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAS TRIGGERED ANOTHER SURGE
OF NORTHERLY WINDS, PRIMARILY OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. LATEST OBS
INDICATE WINDS OF 15-25KT WITH A FEW OF THE HIGHER SITES SHOWING
GUSTS UP TO 30KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER THE RIVERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND, BUT WITH GUSTS ONLY 20-25KT. SO FAR, WINDS ARE
UNDER-PERFORMING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING 10-
15KT. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES. DESPITE THE
UNDER-PERFORMANCE, WILL LEAVE THE SCAS IN PLACE FOR NOW OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS IN CASE THERE'S A SUNRISE SURGE AS THERE OFTEN IS IN
THESE SCENARIOS. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TOMORROW, THOUGH REMAINING BREEZY. SEAS
WILL BE 3-4FT TODAY, THEN 2-3FT TOMORROW. WAVES IN THE BAY 2-3FT
TODAY AND 1-2FT TOMORROW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE INCREASINGLY LIKELY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG SURFACE
LOW FORMING ALONG AND TRAVELING UP THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME VARIATION IN EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW, BUT DO CONSISTENTLY DEPICT A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DRASTIC PRESSURE CHANGES OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD. STILL STICKING
WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT SINCE THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE
STILL MOSTLY OUT OF RANGE. THIS MORNING'S FORECAST PACKAGE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S FORECAST, BUT AM FEELING
MORE CONFIDENT IN IT. NNE LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, REACHING GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SAT NIGHT, THEN PEAK SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS PEAK WOULD BE 35-45KT OVER THE BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND,
AND COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS 50-60KT. THE UPPER RIVERS WOULD BE A
BIT LOWER, BUT STILL WELL WITHIN GALE RANGE. THIS FORECAST IS
SUPPORTED BY LOCAL WIND PROBS, WHICH HAVE 80-85% FOR 48KT+ WIND
GUSTS FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND 50-70% IN THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. DID GO AHEAD AND PUT UP STORM WATCHES FOR
THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, COASTAL WATERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH GALE
WATCHES FOR THE UPPER RIVERS STARTING SAT EVENING. SEAS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE 8-12FT. WAVES IN THE BAY CLIMB TO 7-8FT.
LASTLY, PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK DUE TO COLD WATER/AIR TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS.
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW COINCIDING WITH HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES, WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND THE VIRGINIA BEACH AND
CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS COASTLINE, WITH MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND, LOCATIONS
IN THE UPPER BAY COULD ACTUALLY SEE LOW WATER DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE WORST COASTAL FLOODING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT JAN 31:
- RIC: 23 (1948)
- ORF: 25 (1936)
- SBY: 24 (2019)
- ECG: 29 (1965)
DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL FOR SAT JAN 31 AND SUN FEB 1:
- DATE: SAT JAN 31 SUN FEB 1
- RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948)
- ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910)
- SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962)
- ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ023>025.
NC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ012>014-030.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ015>017-031-032-102.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ099.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>100-509>525.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ092-093.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ095>100-524-525.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ060-061-065>069-079-087.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ076>078-080>086-088>090-512>520-522-523.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ630-631-650-652-654.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ632>634-638-656-658.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652.
DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/JKP
MARINE...AC
CLIMATE...LKB
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