908
FXUS61 KAKQ 310555
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1255 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE OF SE VA/NE NC. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VA TIDEWATER,
INTERIOR NE NC, AND THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
DUE TO STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND MAJOR MARINE IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, ROUGHLY ALONG THE US-360 CORRIDOR (THROUGH THE
RICHMOND METRO).
2) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
KEEPING LOCALIZED IMPACTS (I.E ICY ROADS) IN PLACE. THE COLDEST AIR
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH AN
EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA LEADING UP TO THE EXTREME COLD WATCH.
2) MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS AND NE
NC; A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW DUE TO STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND MAJOR
MARINE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, ROUGHLY ALONG THE US-360
CORRIDOR (THROUGH THE RICHMOND METRO).
STILL A TRICKY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STILL (SUBSTANTIAL)
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS. THE
CURRENT DILEMMA IS THAT WE ARE STILL SEEING LARGE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN VS SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUCH
AS THE HRRR/NAM. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE ACTUALLY SHIFTED SOME
OF THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS/QPF A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH COMPARED
TO EARLIER RUNS. MEANWHILE, THE NAM AND HRRR (12Z) KEEP THE HEAVIEST
SNOW/QPF WELL SOUTH OF A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
HRRR BEING THE MOST EXTREME, KEEPING THE ALMOST ALL OF THE SNOW
CONFINED TO NE NC OR SOUTH (THIS DOES NOT SEEM REALISTIC). FOR NOW
THE FORECAST RESEMBLES A BLEND OF THE GFS, ECMWF, CANADIAN (AND ALL
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES) AS WELL AS THE NBM. THE FORECAST SHOWS 8 TO
12" ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA (LOCALLY
12"+ FAR SOUTHERN BERTIE, NC), TAPERING DOWN TO 4 TO 7" ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE WESTERN TIDEWATER OVER TO THE VA EASTERN
SHORE. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS ARE WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING
IS IN EFFECT. ACROSS THE RICHMOND METRO UP INTO CENTRAL VA AND OVER
TO THE NORTHERN NECK/MD EASTERN SHORE, THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF IN AMOUNTS, POTENTIALLY ACROSS JUST ONE COUNTY. FOR NOW,
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3" OF
ACCUMULATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TYPICALLY DURING THESE SET
UPS, SOMEWHERE ON THE NW SIDE TENDS TO "OVERPERFORM" IN REGARDS TO
SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT WE WILL BE UNABLE TO PIN THIS DOWN UNTIL THE EVENT
IS BEGINNING TO UNFOLD. THE SNOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. AS FOR TIMING OF THE SNOW, EXPECT THE
SNOW TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM SW TO NE, WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. SNOW COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY WITH ALL SNOW ENDING
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON (AT THE LATEST).
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT,
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS
OF 50 TO 60 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE
OCEAN/CHESAPEAKE BAY AND 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE COAST
FROM CURRITUCK, NC TO VIRGINIA BEACH/NORFOLK, AND UP THE EASTERN
SHORE OF VA. WIND ADVISORIES BUFFER THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND
EXTEND BACK TO THIS COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. THERE WAS SOME DISCUSSION
IN REGARDS TO BLIZZARD HEADLINES, BUT ULTIMATELY THE CONFIDENCE IS
STILL NOT THERE IN REGARDS TO SNOW RATES/AMOUNTS. INSTEAD, WE ARE
MESSAGING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND TO AVOID TRAVEL IN THE WINTER
STORM WARNING.
PLEASE KEEP CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. JUST A SMALL SHIFT IN THE COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE
DRASTIC IMPACTS TO THE FINAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, KEEPING LOCALIZED IMPACTS (I.E ICY ROADS) IN PLACE. THE
COLDEST AIR WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LEADING UP TO THE EXTREME COLD WATCH.
SATURDAY WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD FOR THE LOCAL AREA, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST (POSSIBLY STAYING IN THE TEENS
NW). WINDS CHILLS WILL BE NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND 5-10
DEGREES TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE ABOVE CRITERIA, IT WAS DECIDED TO
KEEP THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE ANOMALOUS COLD. THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF A STRONG N TO NW WIND AND AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID TEENS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 0 TO 10 BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY SUNDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NE NC. DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING FARTHER OFF THE NC AND VA COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH STRONG N WINDS BECOMING NNW. THIS WIND DIRECTION AS THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE APPROACHES FAVORS THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON THE
ATLANTIC FACING PORTIONS OF VA BEACH AND CURRITUCK NC AND THESE
AREAS (AS WELL AS NORTHAMPTON VA FOR KIPTOPEKE) HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
IN A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR
TIDAL FLOODING. MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO THE LOWER JAMES AND A
LITTLE FARTHER UP THE BAY BUT THIS WILL BE HANDLED W/ COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES AS NEEDED. WELL UP THE BAY, WATER LEVELS WILL BE MUCH
LOWER DUE TO THE STRONG N WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM SYSTEM. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE STARTING AT ECG AS THE LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARDS. DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
EXPAND NORTHWARDS THROUGH MID-MORNING, WITH ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED
TO SEE SOME VIS AND CIG REDUCTION BY AS EARLY AS 15Z. PROB30S ARE IN
PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF -SN AHEAD OF THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME, PERIODS WITH +SN AND LOW VSBYS ARE
MOST LIKELY, ALONG WITH ELEVATED TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, AT ORF
AND ECG SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CAN EXPECT GUSTS OF 40 KT+
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH INLAND TERMINALS LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KT. HAVE INCLUDED BLSN AT PHF, ORF, AND ECG AS WINDS START
TO INCREASE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: WINDS BECOME NW SUNDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED BUT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DROP OFF AS SN ENDS (THOUGH BLSN MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE). OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...
- RAMP UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT-
SATURDAY AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN HIGH-END GALE TO STORM CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS. STORM
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA.
- FREEZING SPRAY AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. A
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY, LOWER
JAMES, AND NORTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WHEN ACCRETION RATES COULD REACH 2 CM/HOUR FOR A
FEW HOURS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, RIDGING
DOWN INTO THE LOCAL AREA. NNW WINDS ARE SUB-SCA AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BECOME NNE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS DEVELOPING TO OUR S.
ALL EYES WILL THEN TURN TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COASTAL LOW, WHICH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE SE CONUS COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO A VERY IMPRESSIVE
970-980MB AS IT MOVES TO A POSITION 100-200 MILES EAST OF THE VA/NC
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
TODAY THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT. THEN, NE WINDS INCREASE TO ~20 KT BY
12Z/7 AM SAT BEFORE BECOMING 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAMP UP SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO BELOW 980MB. VERY DANGEROUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING N THEN NNW AND INCREASING TO 30-40 KT NORTH/35-45 KT SOUTH,
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO STORM FORCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
THERE IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STORM CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS (HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF WINDMILL
PT/CHINCOTEAGUE). THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT-
NOON ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS UPDATE, HAVE UPGRADED MOST OTHER STORM
WATCHES TO STORM WARNINGS, INCLUDING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CAPE CHARLES AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY S OF WINDMILL POINT. THE
PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED STORM WARNINGS FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND
BAY N OF WINDMILL POINT, HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH HIGH-END GALE
WARNINGS FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT. SEAS BUILD TO 8-12 FT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND 10-15+ FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS (HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS) GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SNOW
(POTENTIALLY HEAVY), PERIODS OF ZERO VISIBILITY ARE INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SAT INTO SUN. LASTLY, PERIODS OF
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS/CAA
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH WATER TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE BAY AND LIKELY THE VERY NEARSHORE NRN COASTAL WATERS,
HAVE CONVERTED HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCHES TO WARNINGS AS AIR
TEMPS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUN AM. FOR OTHER MARINE
AREAS, WILL LIKELY NEED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY. WINDS BECOME NW
BEHIND THE LOW AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON. SUB-ADVISORY WINDS RETURN
MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT JAN 31:
- RIC: 23 (1948)
- ORF: 25 (1936)
- SBY: 24 (2019)
- ECG: 29 (1965)
DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL FOR SAT JAN 31 AND SUN FEB 1:
- DATE: SAT JAN 31 SUN FEB 1
- RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948)
- ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910)
- SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962)
- ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
MDZ022>025.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ014>016-031-032.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ017-102.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NCZ102.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>083-085-087-088-509>522.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ084-086-089-
090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-523>525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ084-
086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
VAZ077-078-084-085-093-096-097-523-524.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR VAZ095-098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR VAZ095-097-098-100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ060-061-
067>069.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ065-066-079-
087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ076>078-
083-512>520-522.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ080>082-
084>086-088>090.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR VAZ086-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>634-656-658.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ630.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652.
STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ631>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ650-652-654.
STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...SW
CLIMATE...LKB
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