233
FXUS61 KAKQ 311959
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
259 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ISSUED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW DUE TO STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND MAJOR MARINE
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, SOUTHEAST OF THE US-360
CORRIDOR.
2) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING LOCALIZED IMPACTS (I.E ICY ROADS) IN PLACE. THE
COLDEST AIR WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
3) MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS
AND NE NC. HAVE CONVERTED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING,
WITH THE WORST (MAJOR) TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED AT VA
BEACH/EASTERN CURRITUCK, WITH (LOW-END) MODERATE FLOODING
EXPECTED AT SEWELL'S PT/KIPTOPEKE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DUE TO STRONG WINDS, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND MAJOR MARINE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, FROM ROUGHLY FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA BEACH, VA DOWN TO CURRITUCK
COUNTY, NC.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ~1005 MB IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE
NC/SC COAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW IS PIVOTING INTO SC WHICH HAS
BROUGHT SNOW TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA AND NC TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING TO SUB-980 MB WELL OFFSHORE
ON SUNDAY.
MODERATE (TO LOCALLY HEAVY) SNOW IS STARTING TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHEAST NC AND FAR SE VA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST VA
INTO NORTHEAST NC, ROUGHLY FROM FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA BEACH OVER
TO SOUTHERN BERTIE COUNTY, NC AND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS. A BAND OF 6-10" IS LIKELY (WHERE FGEN FORCING WILL BE THE
STRONGEST), WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (POTENTIALLY 12"+)
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY
SHARP CUT-OFF IN TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF
HAMPTON ROADS, WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WELL INTO
WARNING CRITERIA AND AREAS TOWARDS WILLIAMSBURG ONLY SEEING ~1"
(AT BEST). FURTHER TO THE NW (TOWARDS RIC/CENTRAL VA), VERY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE (2 PM DEWPOINT AT RIC IS JUST +4 DEGREES).
ONLY A DUSTING TO 1" IS FORECAST UP TO ROUGHLY US-360, WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED NW. SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NC INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VA.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 50
TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 30 TO 40 MPH
FURTHER INLAND. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO SNOW AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, EVEN IF
OFFICIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET.
HEADLINE-WISE, WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE FOR SOUTHEAST VA AND
NORTHEAST NC. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK A BIT
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT STILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE RICHMOND METRO AND SOUTH. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S MAY RESULT IN TRAVEL IMPACTS.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH
WIND ADVISORIES EXTENDING FURTHER INLAND.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, WITH ALL SNOW COMING
TO AN END ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AM. SUNDAY WILL
BE BREEZY AND COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING LOCALIZED IMPACTS (I.E ICY ROADS) IN
PLACE. THE COLDEST AIR WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW. AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAMPTON ROADS
(INCLUDING PORTIONS OF MIDDLE PENINSULA AND SOUTHAMPTON/SURRY
COUNTIES) AND NE NC WHERE THE CRITERIA FOR A WARNING IS ZERO. IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL QUITE REACH THEIR
CRITERIA (5 BELOW) FOR MORE THAN PERHAPS AN HOUR OR SO, SO KEPT
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY SUNDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NE NC.
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING FARTHER OFF THE NC
AND VA COAST EARLY SUNDAY, WITH STRONG N WINDS BECOMING NNW.
THIS WIND DIRECTION AS THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE APPROACHES FAVORS THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ON THE ATLANTIC FACING PORTIONS OF VA BEACH
AND CURRITUCK NC AND THESE AREAS (AS WELL AS NORTHAMPTON VA FOR
KIPTOPEKE). HAVE CONVERTED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING,
WITH THE WORST (MAJOR) TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED AT VA
BEACH/EASTERN CURRITUCK, WITH (LOW-END) MODERATE FLOODING
EXPECTED AT SEWELL'S PT/KIPTOPEKE. MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO
THE LOWER JAMES AND UP THE ATLANTIC COAST TO OCEAN CITY, MD.
HAVE ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THIS. DID NOT INCLUDE
JAMES CITY/SURRY IN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY GIVEN THAT THE
HIGH TIDE HERE IS LATER SUN AFTER WINDS BECOME MORE NNW AND HAVE
JAMESTOWN/YORKTOWN CRESTING A FEW TENTHS BELOW MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. WELL UP THE BAY, WATER LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER DUE TO
THE STRONG N WINDS.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS UP TO THE KECG
TERMINAL AND VICINITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
MOVE UP INTO THE KORF/KPHF TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KRIC AND KSBY, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z/5PM AND 10 PM EST.
AT THIS TIME, PERIODS WITH +SN AND IFR VSBYS ARE MOST LIKELY,
ALONG WITH ELEVATED TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, AT ORF AND ECG
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINALS, AND WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CAN EXPECT GUSTS OF 40 KT+ CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH
INLAND TERMINALS LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. HAVE
MAINTAINED BLSN AT ECG AS WINDS START TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: WINDS BECOME NW SUNDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED BUT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DROP OFF AS SN ENDS (THOUGH BLSN MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE INTO SUN AFTN). OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS INTO MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND MARINERS
STRONGLY CONSIDER ALTERING PLANS TO REMAIN IN PORT DURING THIS TIME.
- DANGEROUS WAVES/SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH THE MOST ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- LINGERING ELEVATED WINDS (POTENTIALLY TO GALE FORCE) LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY DEEPENING OFF THE COAST OF THE NC
OBX THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE, NNE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25
KT S AND 15-20 KT N. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS. LIGHT-MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO LIKELY
ONGOING.
SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS MARINE IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER TO
SUB-980 MB, WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM.
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO 25-35 KT THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT,
PEAKING AT 35-45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE OCEAN, CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND CURRITUCK
SOUND, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AND STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES. STORM
WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. HIGH-END GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
RIVERS AND CHESAPEAKE BAY N OF WINDMILL PT. SEAS INCREASE TO 8-14 FT
DURING THIS TIME, HIGHEST FOR THE NC WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY RANGE FROM 5-7 FT N TO 6-9 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND AT THE MOUTH.
THE OTHER CONCERN DURING THIS TIME WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WINDS, COLD WATER TEMPS, AND
COLD AIR TEMPS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND, WITH FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY AT A RATE OF 2 CM/HR CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO MARITIME
TRAFFIC AND CAN RENDER EXPOSED MECHANICAL AND ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS
INOPERATIVE. THE LOW QUICKLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW. WHILE STORM CONDITIONS WILL
END BY MIDDAY SUNDAY, A PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS/WAVES RETURN IN THE
FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
SCA CONDITIONS IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT JAN 31:
- RIC: 23 (1948)
- ORF: 25 (1936)
- SBY: 24 (2019)
- ECG: 29 (1965)
DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL FOR SAT JAN 31 AND SUN FEB 1:
- DATE: SAT JAN 31 SUN FEB 1
- RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948)
- ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910)
- SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962)
- ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
MDZ022>025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
MDZ025.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ014>016-031-032.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ017-102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>083-085-087-088-509>522.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ099.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
VAZ099.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ099-100.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ084-086-089-
090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ092-093-
095>098-100-524-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ084-
086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
VAZ077-078-084-085-093-096-097-523-524.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR VAZ095-098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ060-
065>068-079>086-088>090-513>516-518-520-523.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR VAZ086-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ087.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ093-
096-524-525.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ095-
097-098-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>637-656-658.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ630.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652.
STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ631>634.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ635>637-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJB/AC/MAM
AVIATION...MAM/RHR/NB
MARINE...ERI/SW
CLIMATE...LKB
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