081
FXUS61 KAKQ 011057
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
557 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED,
AS WELL AS THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR GREENSVILLE, SOUTHAMPTON,
ISLE OF WIGHT, SUFFOLK, HAMPTON/POQUOSON, AND NORTHAMPTON VA. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS WERE CONVERTED TO WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT VA BEACH
AND EASTERN CURRITUCK. ADDED DISCUSSION OF MID-WEEK SYSTEM THAT
COULD BRING LOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXTREME COLD WARNING/COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND
NORTHEAST NC. COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
ADVERSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHERE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY/OVERNIGHT. IT
WILL ALSO KEEP WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
2) MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NE NC.
3) A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK MAY
BRING RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ACCUMULATIONS OF
AN INCH OR LESS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... EXTREME COLD WARNING/COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND
NORTHEAST NC. COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
ADVERSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHERE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY/OVERNIGHT. IT
WILL ALSO KEEP WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NC HAS STRENGTHENED TO ~988MB,
AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT MOVES NE AND AWAY
FROM THE COAST. ALOFT, LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS
AND THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SNOW HAS
LARGELY COME TO AN END, BUT STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC. HIGHEST
SNOW REPORTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 4-7" IN NC AND ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. THERE WAS A SHARP CUTOFF IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS (AS ANTICIPATED) WITH 2" IN NORFOLK, 1" IN
WAKEFIELD, AND LESS THAN AN INCH ON THE PENINSULA. DO ANTICIPATE
THAT A FEW REPORTS OF TOTALS MORE THAN 7" WILL COME IN FROM
COASTAL NC IN AFTER DAYBREAK. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND SEVERAL ZONES OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING SINCE THE SNOW HAS STOPPED. NORFOLK, VIRGINIA BEACH,
CHESAPEAKE, AND ALL OF OUR NC COUNTIES ARE STILL IN A WARNING,
BUT WILL REVISIT CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH NEAR THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST VA AND NE NC. THERE WAS EVEN AN
OB OF 58MPH AT THE DUCK PIER. ELSEWHERE NEAR THE COAST WINDS ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35MPH. INLAND LOCATIONS ARE BREEZY AS WELL WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30MPH. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
AS WELL AS A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND EASTERN
CURRITUCK. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND THE DRY, FLUFFY TEXTURE OF
THE SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW TODAY, WHICH COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S HAS RESULTED IN WIND CHILLS ALREADY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT THESE WILL DROP TO AROUND AND
BELOW ZERO LATER THIS MORNING. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING IS
STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST, AS WELL AS
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
STAYING COLD AND GUSTY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S FOR THE
MAJORITY, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 30 IN THE SW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO
TEMPORARILY RISE OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 10 INLAND THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AT THE
COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NE NC. TIDE
FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN BY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH SINCE
YESTERDAY GIVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH LOW TRACK. STILL, COASTAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS,
EASTERN CURRITUCK, AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY (VA). THE WORST
(MAJOR) TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NE
NC. MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN VA BEACH, WITH MINOR TO
LOW-END MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED AT SEWELL'S PT/KIPTOPEKE.
MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO THE LOWER JAMES AND UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST TO OCEAN CITY, MD. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WELL UP THE BAY, WATER
LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER DUE TO THE STRONG N WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK MAY
BRING RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ACCUMULATIONS OF
AN INCH OR LESS.
AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK AND A BREAK FROM THE BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS, A FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MID-WEEK AND BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL, THE FRONT DOESN'T LOOK VERY STRONG, AND MOST MODELS
DEPICT A LACK OF MOISTURE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
JUST RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANY MEASURABLE SNOW WOULD LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE.
THESE CASES OF COLD AIR CHASING PRECIP RARELY RESULT IN MUCH,
THOUGH. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY DEPICT LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH THE GEPS COMING IN THE HIGHEST WITH A STRIP OF
1.5-2" ACROSS THE NORTH.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 555 AM EST SUNDAY...
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AS IT STRENGTHENS TODAY.
SEEING SOME LINGERING IMPACTS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST, PRIMARILY
AFFECTING ECG THIS MORNING. SNOW GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END, BUT
WILL LIKELY HAVE LIGHT SNOW FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT ECG.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING SKIES TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT FROM W TO E
TODAY, SCATTERING OUT AT RIC AS EARLY AS MID-DAY. MVFR CIGS AT
ORF SHOULD LIFT AROUND 13Z AND AT ECG BY MID-DAY. NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH GUSTS 25-30KT AT RIC AND 30-40KT AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ALSO FORECASTING LLWS AT RIC AND SBY DURING THE DAY, POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR REDUCED CIGS AND RAIN OR SNOW TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY. DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND MARINERS STRONGLY CONSIDER ALTERING
PLANS TO REMAIN IN PORT DURING THIS TIME.
- DANGEROUS WAVES/SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
- LINGERING ELEVATED WINDS (POTENTIALLY TO GALE FORCE) LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF TONIGHT.
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AS SUB-990MB LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NNE ABOUT 150-200 MILES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. WINDS ARE N AT 30-40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40-50 KT WITH
8-14 FT SEAS. IN ADDITION, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
IS ONGOING AS BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING ICE ACCRETION RATES AS
HIGH AS 1.6 CM/HOUR ON THE BAY (AT STINGRAY PT). ICE ACCRETION RATES
ARE LIKELY HIGHER THAN THAT ON OTHER PARTS OF THE BAY. WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED, WINDS ARE A
COUPLE KNOTS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NEVERTHELESS, STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY FOR THE LOWER CHES BAY,
COASTAL WATERS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND, AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND. STORM
WARNINGS WERE CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
COASTAL ZONES, AND GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER BAY
AND RIVERS. WINDS PEAK THIS MORNING WITH HIGH-END GALE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH STORM CONDITIONS ON THE
LOWER BAY AND SE VA/NE NC COASTAL WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH TO 30-35 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANTICIPATE THAT ALL STORM
WARNINGS WILL BE ABLE TO BE CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS EITHER LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AT THE LATEST. THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG
WINDS, COLD WATER TEMPS, AND COLD AIR TEMPS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND
COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND, WITH FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AT A RATE OF 2 CM/HR CAN CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO MARITIME TRAFFIC AND CAN RENDER EXPOSED
MECHANICAL AND ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS INOPERATIVE.
THE LOW QUICKLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NW. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER
SEAS/WAVES RETURN IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. A PERIOD OF HIGHER
END SCAS OR GALES IS POSSIBLE BEHIND A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT JAN 31:
- RIC: 23 (1948)
- ORF: 25 (1936)
- SBY: 24 (2019)
- ECG: 29 (1965)
DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL FOR SAT JAN 31 AND SUN FEB 1:
- DATE: SAT JAN 31 SUN FEB 1
- RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948)
- ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910)
- SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962)
- ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ021>025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ022>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ014>016-031-
032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ015>017-
030>032-102.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ017-102.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>083-085-087-088-509>522.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ099.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ084-
086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ077-078-
084>086-093-096-097-523-524.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ095-098-
100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ093-096-524-525.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ095-
097-098-100.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-638.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ631>634.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ635>637.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ635>637-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...AC/ERI
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ERI
CLIMATE...LKB
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